NCAA wk 3

Michigan St 26 Air Force (57)

Megalocks line - 21

Leaning to the dog in this affair....AF QB hurt but will start an experienced guy in Karson Roberts do not expect much of a dropoff - of course - if he gets hurt smashing into the Sparty D there might be problems....AF averaging over 400Y/game on the ground but this is Michigan St and not Morgan St or San Jose St....We like the fact that Sparty has only one week to prepare off the big Oregon win....but that run D is pretty stout - held Oregon to 2.9 per carry which is no small feat - yes defending the option is different but this is an excellent matchup we want to see.

Summary - Sparty always a tough fade for us but do lean to the dog catching almost 4 TD. Keeping it on our short list.

mega

THREAD RECAP

PLAYS

LSU -6.5 -120

EM / Ball over 61.5

UConn +21

Leans - check out thread for details.

AF, Kent, New Mex, S Car, Ole Miss, TTech, VTech, Florida, NIU, Indiana over, UNC over, NW/Duke under

Write-ups in this order

LSU/Auburn

Thursday / Friday / E Michigan game

SEC / Kansas St game

Big 10

Up next  ACC

GL mega

ADDING

Northwestern / Duke under 48

As per above write-up. Also think there is a good chance one team does not get to 14....and do not think either team gets 30.

GL and play safe. mega

NC ST 18.5 ODU (59.5)

Megalocks line - 15

See some value in the doggie here...NC St continued their murderous schedule last wk with a win over E Ky and have S Alabama on deck...This is going to be the toughest of the first four games....ODU breaking in a new QB but the best RB you may not have heard of Ray Lawry has gone over 200 yds each of the first 2 games and while he prob will not get close to that here - the point is that NC ST gave up 124 to Troy's Banks so they are going to have their hands full with the ODU run game which is protecting the new QB....Of course we still do not trust the ODU D.....and what makes this a tough call is that NC St is probably legit this yr love their QB and they are on quite a roll playing good football since late last season so they are a tough fade - line is smart - ya is probably too many points but you have to fade a team with a lot of momentum.....NC St should be wary of Shadow Williams at LB nobody ever sees him in coverage.

Summary - lean ODU. May add if it hits 20.

mega

Syracuse 7 Chips (44.5)

Megalocks line 7

Think this is a fair spread....Solid capper and friend of the show SyracuseJoe has all the detail you need...Our take from afar is that their run D is very good and have fun pretty much anybody doing much on the ground - pass D allowed 300 to Wake still not sure about their secondary and they were ranked 103 by steele last yr - Cooper Rush is a very solid passer - 27 td last yr - looks good this yr...and while CM has had zero success running - only 2.2/carry last wk - they seem to be able to stay competitive....I mean they played okie st very tough at home mind you but Syracuse is not better than them.....Last yr was 40-3 Cuse - different times different players....Like the look of the new QB for Cuse he is the wild card no doubt. Final thought - don't forget CM was a bowl team last yr and they lost some guys but so far they look to be a bottom bowl tier kinda team again so laying 7 against them not our cup of tea.

Summary - No leanage.

mega

Wake 5.5 (48) Army

Megalocks line 4

Could not find an edge on this one was hoping for a total a little bit lower as Wake is passing the ball better - QB 2 str 300 yd passing games and they are way more likely to put pts on the board than the offense that took the field last yr...We like Bradshaw running the ball at Army but they just seem to have no ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game - even a once in a while over the top to keep things honest a la navy or air force; Hard to lay almost a TD with Wake as they are having a hard time running the all and Army always gives 100% - last yr was 24-21 but probably army was equal or better and Wake was worse.

summary - no leanage

mega

GT 2.5 Notre Dame (55)

Megalocks line - 1

We make GT a small fav in this one even with as everyone knows ND down electric QB Zaire and RB Folston...not to mention some guys on defense - BUT - now they can play the underdog card...They do have the better D and yes ND inexperienced at QB but Tech also has limited film...We love GT QB and they are absolutely rolling arguably a Top 10 team (?) that does not get maybe as much respect as they deserve....Just missed the good line in this one - good job on guys who grabbed GT + points early on we missed it - at this price tempting to take GT but we just do not know what we do not know regarding the ND QB situation and while the GT option is unstoppable at times like we said ND still has the better D.

summary - no play - cannot wait to watch.

mega

THREAD RECAP

PLAYS

LSU -6.5 -120

EM / Ball over 61.5

UConn +21

Duke / NW under 48

Leans - check out thread for details. Updated.

AF, Kent, New Mex, S Car, Ole Miss, TTech, VTech, Florida, NIU, Indiana over, UNC over, ODU,

Write-ups in this order

LSU/Auburn

Thursday / Friday / E Michigan game

SEC / Kansas St game

Big 10

ACC

UP NEXT

Big 12

Mega

Quote Originally Posted by hradekbr:

I like Wake in this one. Just feel Wake's program is maybe finally starting to pick up some momentum. They should of beat Cuse last week. Outgained them, did well on 3rd downs, controlled the game in general, just got beat bad in the turnover battle. Army looked horrid last week vs UCONN and there offense is just nowhere to be found. They beat them by 3 last year, but the two years before that they won by 11 and 14, and those Army teams were much better than the one being put out on the field this weekend. BOL Mega and always enjoy the insight. 

Excellent points my friend  Yes - Army run game has not even been up to usual standards if Wake doesn't give this one away they should win easily. GL this wk.

Okie St 24.5 UTSA (55)

Megalocks line -23

Oklahoma St has not lit it up on the scoreboard yet played a close one with C Michigan and they took care of Central Ark last wk 32-8...QB Rudolph threw the ball well...over 400Y..and the D should be decent this yr....They are on a 28-14 ATS run as HF - pretty good - but they do have a date with Texas next wk which technically a lookahead spot...UTSA is well coached and scrappy - but must be ready to face easier competition after Az and K St...Tough to back the dog here but we were hoping for a number closer to 21.....L2Y UTSA lost but covered at home in this matchup 56-35 and were 43-13 losers in this place last yr.

Summary - no leanage

mega

Oklahoma 30.5 Tulsa (72)

Megalocks line 27

Sooners coming off a big comeback and 2 OT win in Tennessee....D has been super the first 2 wks giving up 226 and only 254Y to Tennessee last wk - Once QB Mayfield got cooking it was pretty impressive....Now the spread does seem a bit high but Sooners have won 8 straight in the series per the Steele mag by an average of 38ppg and as good as this Tulsa offense looks - 600Y each of the first 2 games...Their D will have absolutely no answer for anything Oklahoma wants to do...31 points or so very tempting and probably the way to go backdoor will be open - that is unless Sooners have a gigantic lead.

Summary - no leanage. Tulsa D is just too putrid.

mega

Quote Originally Posted by WAIWAI:

mega ,
what you think about LSU-7.5???

hey buddy - I would not play them at 7.5. I would want less than 7. Auburn is gonna give them a fight just liked the early line below 7 which was actually out there for a while and I think you can still grab it. Best of luck this wk

Yes - unless our Lines Department is incorrect - lots of LSU -6.5 out there along with some -7. I would not play LSU -7.5. I know it may not make sense but we always try and get the line we want.

TCU 37 SMU (66)

Megalocks line -35

TCU has TTech on deck for a potential lookahead spot - but then again - they beat SMU last yr 56-02 with Oklahoma on deck...They are on a 32-19 ATS run as HF....a bit banged up but if they can slow down SMU QB Davis - which they probably will - it is ugly time - but will it be ugly enough to cover 37? Hard to say....SMU QB Davis playing very well can pass pretty well and runs exceptionally well - had over 100 and 2 TD rushing - not sure how that is gonna work - but SMU HC Morris has these guys on a definite upswing....Just not sold it will show this wk. Gonna be hard to get more than 10 pts making it hard to cover.

Summary - no leanage.

mega

Ken11 - thanks very much  This thread definitely not for everyone so we appreciate the kind words. Best of luck this wk !

Hstead  Hope things work out for us. You never know. Risk a small portion of your bankroll on every play you make. Long season ahead.

mega

Cal 7 Texas (58)

Megalocks line -3

This is a really strange one....A good example of how MEGALOCKS needs perceived value AND confidence to put the cash down....According to our ratings which may or may not be correct - we make Cal at most a 3 pt fav in this game but it just might be that we have Cal rated too low and Texas too high? So hard to say after just 2 games- especially when Cal looked good but played Grambling St and SD St...The good news for Cal is that Texas offense is probably no better - outgained by Rice 462-277 - and their DEF might not be better WTF....Rice was an unthinkable 15/21 on 3rd downs against Texas but 5 turnovers will kill you most of the time....Heard may be an upgrade at Tex QB? We did not mind playing Texas in spots last yr b/c their D played pretty well most of the time...After looking at their boxscores boy oh boy it could go one of two ways - Texas plays best game - its close - Cal blows them out big time....Cal a bad road fav ATS and Tex a bad home dog ATS but each of those situations rarely come up - at least in the last 10 yrs so just saying not saying just saying....

Summary. Lean Cal at 6.5 or better even tho our ratings say NO to that.

GL mega

thx man  go Hawaii !

needsome -