NCAA wk 3

MEGALOCKS presents - In conjunction with staff member JOHN COCKTOASTIN......The ALL REQUEST HOTLINE........"because we care"

Kansas St 9 La Tech (51)

Megalocks line 11

It is too easy to be "Who Have They Played Guy" sometimes - K St has outscored a couple pretty easy opponents 64-3 over two weeks - but then again - UTSA gave Arizona a bit of a game....Kansas St TT under was a 42785234987 STAR MEGALOCKS winner as we lured subscribers away from the seemingly tasty points to the team total....13 pts after 3Q but UTSA did make it interesting in the 4Q.....Just thought that was the better risk/reward play - doesn't always work out so we thank the gambling Gods

K St playing good D - especially run D and new QB Joe Hubener looked ok in his first start passed for over 200 ran for 58...K St seemingly missing the odd explosive playmaker they usually have but gonna wait a few more games before we judge that....K St a very nice 14-6 ATS L20 as a home fav which is not easy to do....Next wk is a bye so no lookahead.....We definitely lean K St in this one for 1) perceived value 2) better D 3) no negative intangibles that we can see 4) proven studs as HF ATS recently

Now LT put up 580Y last wk in a near comeback vs WK  - and like we said last wk - Covers Historians will note that the mere mention of the name JEFF DRISKEL will not only blow up the internet and all of our Twitter accounts - but cause posters to foam at the mouth like rabid hyenas and start stabbing random strangers with steak knives. Facts are facts tho. Within that offense - and against bad Ds he is putting up very nice numbers and almost "willed" his team to victory last wk (NOT our words - an internet scribe) - They are very balanced and this early in the season we just to not know how good K St D really is and can they stop the LT attack? LT can't stop anything - but we really hate laying more than a TD in any game.....Added bonus is that LT has essentially a must win game on deck (FIU) because they already have one conference loss - I know I know sounds nuts but this is not an important game for LT relatively speaking.

Summary - Lean K St. Line movement from 12 area down thru 10 to 9 a bit concerning but we know how bad gamblers love to bet on teams that are "fun" to watch. Probably will not make the official play list but we do think K St probably wins by 10+.

mega

GoGo -  get some paper this wk

UGA  that Vols game was fun to watch but must have been a roller coaster for anyone with cash on the line. GL this week. As always "UCF"

Georgia 17 S Carolina (54)

Megalocks line 14

Seems like the line is a little bit inflated to us...Yes SC lost to Kentucky - but they are not horrible and they played UNC - another decent team and won - notwithstanding some timely interceptions in the end zone....Yes their QB is out - but Perry Orth looked ok last wk in relief and let's face it - while he did not win the starting QB job - essentially nobody - not even Mr Orth himself knows how he will fair in a road test at Georgia....Covers Talent Evaluator Guy might know - but we think it is a bit of a question mark - leaning  towards he will play well and no worse than your pal Connor Mitch....D has not looked bad either.....We check their injury report and while it is a mile long - we do not put too much stock into the Jedi mind tricks of the injury report....So we think being a rivalry game and the fact that their D looks at least ok - AND the fact that nobody seems to talk about - Chubb can run for 270 yards and 3 TD it does not matter if THEIR QB blows and there is no cinch that Georgia can cover 17. They gave up 400+ Y to Vandy. Had a return TD and a Def TD. I mean seriously guys. This does not look like a 20 point blowout to us.

Summary - Lean SC. May revisit. QB play for SC an unknown and we were surprised to see our supercomputers spit out GA -14 as a fair number.

mega

thx buddy  glad you picked two good ones - and not our big whiff on the LSU game ....As always just play the ones you like. GL !

 ya we post this suckers as soon as we bet 'em - lines move a lot faster now than in the old days ! GL buddy

Go with your gut  It might be that I have LSU rated too highly. I do know one thing - the higher the line gets the worse of a play it is. Auburn will fight for it. GL

boomer  I agree 100%.....GL this wk!

Alabama 7 Ole Miss (51)

Megalocks line - 7

What a nice treat to get this puppy in week 3...Can see a bunch of different scenarios in this one - maybe the least likely would be a Bama dominant win - BUT - defense and running game can go a long way - and do not think we have seen Bama going with their entire playbook yet....On the other hand hard to fade if not impossible any team that scores 70 points back to back weeks even if it was against pure filth squads....QB Kelly looking very comfortable and do not think Ole Miss could be any more confident than right now.....Bama in revenge spot and Ole Miss 1-26 SU in Tuscaloosa although we say throw that out the window for the most part that is ancient history and this Ole Miss team may be MAY be championship calibre. Our supercomputers spit out Bama 7 so no perceived line value in this one - just cannot take those Ole Miss first 2G at face value until they play a real team.

Summary - lean Ole Miss only at 7+. Total seems a bit low but just do not know for sure.

GL mega

QB - have to agree - GL !

Doc  GL

Arkansas 11.5 Texas Tech (67)

Megalocks line -9

Seems the line is a little bit high - even though Arkansas lost at home to a MAC team .....It is not like Toledo is bad - but it did come as a shock to us not so much the close game but the SU win - It never pays to assume you know too much early in the season but wow 12 points? Now digging into the numbers - would love to hear some Hog intel - but they did outgain Toledo 515.318 and were only -1 in turnover margin so we probably need to look at the drive summary in more detail to determine how the SAM HILL they lost that game....Their D has allowed only 29 pts in 2 games and not too many yards....What worries us is that their QB threw for 400+ can they all of a sudden be a passing juggernaut WTF Toledo a decent DL but really could not impose their will running the ball - Toledo QB had an efficient game 237 1 td and no int - what do you think T Tech will do ? Well they are gonna score - but the D is a mural with players painted on it - Ark will move and score - and with a D that bad - you will rarely truly have "value" in a pointspread because they can give up so many yards and points...The good news for TT is that they have scored 59 and 69 in tune up games and the BEEFCAKE head coach has that offense humming.....Ark without top WR for a while too.

Summary - Lean Texas Tech...On short list no official play yet - Think line goes to 10 before it hits 14 but that is just a guess.

GL mega

Texas AM 34 Nevada (65.5)

Megalocks line - 28

Line has had a bit of MOB STEAM behind it creeping up from the high 20s and that was without a 98052304 star MEGALOCKS release .....T AM looks great to us manhandled Az St and were up 49-3 at half last wk before putting in their 5th stringers....Looking like a nice squad our worry is that they have Arkansas on deck may empty the bench again and allow some dirty back door action when the outcome is already decided....Nevada ? Not sure about these guys I mean that is a lot of points and normally would be really interested but we prefer these guys when they ran for 275+ on everyone and now they are more traditional? QB looked ok last wk just think their secondary is gonna get torched again - given up over 66% completions last 2 yrs - AM first half maybe the way to go here but price gonna be too steep for us.

Summary - no leanage

mega

Quote Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

Thanks for passing the crack pipe last week.       



BOL mega       

hopefully we can find another one this wk - GL !

I do like that one  on short list - probably gonna hit -3 later today or tomorrow.