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NCAA wk 11

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Posts: 493

MR615

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2015

Posts: 12

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 3:44 PM ET #51

Mega kicks Axx! Awesome picks last week. I've been following your write-ups and have been extremely impressed on your knowledge and conservatism in your decisions!! It is a pleasure reading your comments as well as your followers!

finallyafather

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 2

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 3:47 PM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Freaks Vegas Trap Guy Bloodbath Guy Covers Nation
On to week 11. Last week had a 4-1 slate which makes us 10/10 in winning weeks so far. Gambling gods are smiling upon us and we are grateful. Worst week so far 3-2.
Thanks a million to everyone who stops in to talk about the games. Yes - the picks are working out - but it is the analysis of all the games that we really enjoy especially when we hear how it is helping people make their own decisions.
Going to try for an EARLY TASTER or two - Have some stuff to do today. As per usual - IF you want to get on these early tasters you need to stick around and wait for the picks mid to late afternoon. A bunch of other guys will have threads as well. There is usually a small window to get the best line BUT remember like we said last week - it is rare for the line to matter come game time.
GL to all Play SAFE. Any week can trip you up. NCAA football betting can be a cruel mistress.
MEGA

How do I see your picks

Partles1

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2014

Posts: 47

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 4:30 PM ET #53

So Mega going to Belize this upcoming weekend thanks to the last killer weeks thank you hoping you put 1 small crack hit up before I leave Wednesday morning really killing it Thais to you and many others on here last week was totally awesome book pissed so I might have a withdrawal week and be back next week and getting pumped for the upcoming bowl beating you guys will throw down wife thanks you for vacation I'll be thinking about you guys as I fish for bonefish keep packing those pipes great stuff

jayucla87

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 33

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 4:42 PM ET #54

mega!! couple things wanted to say.. great picks last week!! really like the rhythm youre getting in. I assume you will look at the ucla Washington state game, I see some value in Washington state plus 9.5. ucla may be over valued after beating Oregon state one of the worst fbs teams out there now. feel like Washington state will be able to MARTICULATE in the passing game against ucla. good luck like always! looking forward to rolling along into week 11....

K1NG_BAMA

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 126

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 4:55 PM ET #55

Nice pick last week on Arkansas Mr Mega.

I was also on those hogs and it was extra sweet because they beat the team that stood in the way of the Tide going to Atlanta. Now Bama just needs to handle Miss St and Auburn. I'm worried about Miss St and the spot Bama is in after the big win over LSU. The good part is, Bama didn't win that game late with heroics, and it was pretty much in hand the start of the 4th Q.. Also, Saban is the best at getting his team prepared week after week. The bad is, Dak is playing really good football right now. But can he escape this DL? I would be willing to take the 8 points and State right now, but I think we can get 10 by game time because the public and touts will boost this line up late like they did vs LSU and Ole Miss. The Tide has played their best ball on the road this year, but this is the exact spot where the offense sputters out each year trying to "not lose" and wins a close one. But another thing to consider, Saban has owned Dan Mullen since 2008 when he was at UF with Tebow and Urban. Tebow got the job done in 08, but since that game, Saban has shut Mullins offense down each year. This is probably a no bet situation, but just giving you my thoughts on the match up, what little I know anyway.. Haha, good luck and sorry for the novel

arrgy

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 2637

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 5:00 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Tuesday MACtion
Toledo 4.5 Chips
Megalocks line - 4
Sagarin - 5.5
Very interesting battle shaping up in the MAC West which involves both of these teams.........W Michigan in the drivers' seat with 0 conference losses but still some games between the 4 teams with 1 loss or less in conference which makes this one very interesting.
Toledo is the much more balanced team - now the Chips have made backers a lot of COLD HARD CASH this year but Toledo is our lean in this one.....Like we said more balanced - will get into that - and have won 5 straight in the series all by double digits - the biggest concern we have about C Michigan is their total lack of running game - you all know how we hate teams that cannot run the ball and as good as Rush is - you are not going to beat Toledo with just the passing game unless you get really fortunate with turnovers.....C Michigan does have the #1 ranked D in the MAC but on a yards per play D basis Toledo is slightly better....CM has played a much tougher schedule IMO - even more than Sagarin ratings would indicate and THAT my friends is the reason why this will not hit the official play list - Toledo has been beating up lesser and coming off a loss - CM more battle tested.....We had a feeling last week that Toledo QB Ely would screw it up at some point and sure enough Toledo somehow lost that game despite that OL and crazy 3-headed monster at RB running seemingly at will for most of the game.....bad news is that CM has the 2nd fewest int in the MAC and the 2nd fewest sacks in the MAC so not sure they can force Ely into mistakes but he may have lost confidence after last week......C Michigan has only had 3 home games vs FBS teams this year and played very well vs okie st....beat NIU (a 245823409 star megalocks loser) and crushed Buffalo. A couple extra days to prepare as well.
Summary. Lean Toledo (only if desperate for action) but no higher than -4. Very interested in the total going to see what pops up tomorrow.
mega

The only MAC team worth betting is BG. Made a ton of cash on them.

MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 5:21 PM ET #57

Henne NFL a tough gig man - GL !

positivity - thanks !!

UGA .......Raiders looking good for the future who else in that division long term??

SCC ....7 games is fine buddy just watch your bankroll - Do not want one week to kill you. GL this week

Lion - will add Tulane to the request line you sicko

Papa - added you as a friend

Cs -

Ken

Turbo - welcome to the forum and thanks for the kind words ! GL

Finally - get my pix in this thread I update every page or so - can also get me on Tw - GL !!!

VITS

Mr615 thanks ! appreciate it

jayucla I find the P12 tough ! will try and get to the UCLA game but not sure the request line pretty packed already but I promise to try - GL this week pal !

KingBama - I still have Bama as my #2 they look great .....Arkansas game was great - I LOVE that QB

arrgy - BG is a cash cow

LSUfasteddie - THANKS.....really appreciate it

MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 5:26 PM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by Partles1:

So Mega going to Belize this upcoming weekend thanks to the last killer weeks thank you hoping you put 1 small crack hit up before I leave Wednesday morning really killing it Thais to you and many others on here last week was totally awesome book pissed so I might have a withdrawal week and be back next week and getting pumped for the upcoming bowl beating you guys will throw down wife thanks you for vacation I'll be thinking about you guys as I fish for bonefish keep packing those pipes great stuff

BELIZE !! one of my favorite places on earth have been there a bunch of times - great diving and excellent excursions available in the interior. People are awesome there too. ENJOY! Have not tried the bonefishing but hear it is the best. Have fun.

MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 6:32 PM ET #59

first pick

Virginia Tech +3.5

write-up coming

MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 6:32 PM ET #60

first pick

Virginia Tech +3.5

write-up coming

SST

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2013

Posts: 160

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 6:43 PM ET #61

Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

first pick

Virginia Tech +3.5

write-up coming

SST

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2013

Posts: 160

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 6:44 PM ET #62

Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

first pick

Virginia Tech +3.5

write-up coming

Temple71

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2628

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 7:06 PM ET #63

BOL

patric

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2000

Posts: 553

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 7:23 PM ET #64

Good luck this week MegaLocks.............

MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 7:32 PM ET #65

VIRGINIA TECH +3.5

Megalocks line 1

Sagarin 4

Going to take a shot with the dog here...Last 3 meetings the winning margin has been 3 7 3 points and it should be another good game although our supercomputers tell us IF there is a DD win it is much more likely to be VT.

GT is not close to the 2014 version. Yes they have played a pretty tough schedule but they are not explosive on offense and are only 110th in 3rd down conversions which is the entire premise of their offense - 3rd and manageable and move the chains....The last 5 yrs for reference they were ranked 1 4 31 2 and 56 (only losing record last 10 years)....Since the opening 2 games against nobody they have scored 22 20 31 24 28 22 21 and VT has seen these guys before and are off a bye do not think GT will be able to run wild....Last game they had less than 150Y rushing vs VA wtf?....GT now without a stud DL ofy....Need to follow up on VT injury report but conservatively we can call it even in terms of overall health......GT is 13th in the ACC in sacks and 14th in TFL.

VT offense is nice and balanced. We like the look of RB McMillan think he is gonna be a good one and do NOT forget VT has been without their starting QB most of the year and Brewer is a much better passer....not to mention the underrated receiving core and freak TE Hodges. That GT D is bad and unless VT gives it away with turnovers they should win this game SU.

Finally - just a tidbit. just a bonus but of course we never make a bet based on this stuff....But do you think this VT wants to be the team that ends the 22 game bowl streak is HC Beamer's final year? They need 6 wins and only have 4 with 2 games left so you do the math. Picky Guy will say they could get in with a 5-7 record this yr since they added extra bowl games but for real - nobody knows that yet so we have to assume the guys are gonna be jacked up and this aint your momma's GT team.

GL mega

WahooS

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 25634

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 8:47 PM ET #66

Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Wahoo - great work last week pal. ......Opening lines were tight this week could NOT find any EARLY TASTERS.........I must say I am interested in Baylor if the line keeps dropping I really like the Sooners but ????.....Interested in your thoughts - of course the new QB really throws a wrench into things not that we needed any more difficulty handicapping B12 games.

you know what's coming

FlexIt4U

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 47

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 8:56 PM ET #67

Mega, you are an excellent capper. You really do a great job of breaking down games. Been following your write-ups for a while but I rarely post. I know write-ups are coming soon but do you have any early feel on these games I'm looking at?

WVA -8 Texas
MTSU -5 FAU
NC St +9.5 FSU
Ark St -13 ULM
NC -11 Miami
Bama -7 MSU
Ok St -13 ISU
SMiss -6 Rice
Utah -5 AZ
Wazzu -6 UCLA

puffkit

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 143

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 9:20 PM ET #68

yeh thanks.....funny with that troy pick i almost...almost...put a few on the ML

...but nah....so glad they lost SU

was fired up about idaho +9.5 last week......was waiting for 10...which never showed.....then it was knocked down to 8 so i passed. they looked good with a 24-7 lead at the half....then....idaho almost gacked it away ATS giving up 45 second half points......45.....f-o-r-t-y f-i-v-e

. they have been duly filed under 'teams not to trust with a lead anything short of triple digits'....but will keep an eye on them as a backdoor dog b/c they are rolling up the points and yards (93 pts and over 1000 yds the last two weeks). today they just dismissed their troubled best player (wr epps...he's not the messiah he's a very naughty boy) but havent played with him the last two games anyway.....and they are getting a bunch (+18) vs app st this week. hhhmmm.......

not much room left on the troy bus....opened ga southern -10 which was quickly knocked down to 6.

MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 9:30 PM ET #69

Quote Originally Posted by FlexIt4U:

Mega, you are an excellent capper. You really do a great job of breaking down games. Been following your write-ups for a while but I rarely post. I know write-ups are coming soon but do you have any early feel on these games I'm looking at?

WVA -8 Texas
MTSU -5 FAU
NC St +9.5 FSU
Ark St -13 ULM
NC -11 Miami
Bama -7 MSU
Ok St -13 ISU
SMiss -6 Rice
Utah -5 AZ
Wazzu -6 UCLA

hey pal I have not looked at most of those games yet so I hate to give you a take already because it may change once I look at things ya know ? I think you mean wazzu + points?

the only one I am not sure about in there is W Va because I have not feel for texas really like Smiss and Utah ......Have a gut feel on iowa st but cannot justify it yet...sorry doubt that helps but GL !!

MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 9:32 PM ET #70

SST

patric - GL this week bro

temple

puffkit - you were the first on the Troy bus that I saw and you are right it looks full right now GL this wk

Wahoo - BAYLOR 4-pound steamer play ???

cskeete

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 7

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 9:53 PM ET #71

Another great week Mega .... I took your bets and OU overs last week and it was GREAT Saturday .... This week I like Texas Tech to win at home for their final home game of the year and to become bowl eligible

cskeete

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 7

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 9:53 PM ET #72

Texas Tech is -5 1/2

Bridge1

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 6311

Posted: Nov. 9, 2015 - 9:59 PM ET #73

Sup Mega. Great week well done and appreciating all you're doing for the people. I'm an ACC no-nothing so takin you're word on the old They'll-Go-Bowling-for-Beamer-Guy pick haha.

Lookin at UtahSt @ AF Pickem - Like AF but concerned UTS just played UNM holding their rush to season low and UNM's an option attack so won't be the kneecap blocking surprises... but they still lost to UNM by 1 as 20pt favs!...

.... I'm keying on UTS giving up rush yardage to wyoming and SDSU in bulk after starting the season so well. also home teams have been giving UTS fits 2-3 ATS with Utah cover a DD rivalry spread, the other being Fresno-way-no-how...1-4 SU on the road. AF's pass has been a good little supplement at times. Trends seem favorable for both but UTS just looks lazy when they could have gone-bowling-for-Wells with a win LW. so thinking they're still on that post-capperdarling slide they've been on since keeping the Utes close.. Also, Chucky might be but still like AF at home...just curious if there's a glaring piece missing or does the The Return of Chuckie Part VII makes this bet too scary???