NCAA Week 2 Ponderings

I'm a little late getting this thread up. So without further ado here are some games I'm looking at with the current lines. Home teams in CAPS

Friday, Sept. 11

BOSTON COLLEGE -3 (down from -3') Rutgers - The Scarlet Knights get an extra two days to recover from their embarrassing, inexplicable, blowout loss to UMass, and they catch BC on a short week. I'm not sure the Eagles should be favored here, but this is their Red Bandana game which actually falls on 9/11 this year, and emotion could carry the day. 

Missouri -5' (down from -7) KANSAS - The Tigers won last year's meeting, 42-31, in Columbia in a renewal of the Border War rivalry. Both teams looked good last week, albeit against FCS competition. 76% of public bets are on Mizzou, but sharp money has pushed the line down. I'm leaning with the sharps here, but I wanna see these teams play against real competition before I get involved.

Saturday, Sept. 12 - early games

ARMY -3' (up from -1') Usf - I agree with the line move here. The Bulls are off a 19-9 win over FIU in which they were outgained 381 total yards to 208. All 19 points came as a result of three takeaways and four fourth down stops. This is basically a new team with a new head coach and a lot of new pieces, and I doubt they'll be ready for what Army brings to the table. The Black Knights are a far more disciplined team than what USF faced in Week One.

Oklahoma -5' (flipped from +2') MICHIGAN - What a difference a week makes. The eight point swing in the line appears justified given last week's results. The Sooners breezed past UTEP, 51-0, while the Wolverines had a miraculous escape vs. Western Michigan, winning 13-12 on a controversial 47 yard Hail Mary pass that probably shouldn't have counted. Michigan QB Bryce Underwood completed his first five passes for 61 yards, but went just 6 of 16 for 62 yards and had two turnovers before the miracle finish. And THAT was against WMU. Ya think he's gonna fare any better against the Sooner defense? I don't.

Wake Forest -3 (down from -3') PURDUE - I like both of these coaches. Demon Deacons head man Jake Dickert sparked a turnaround in his first year with the team, as they went 9-4 including a bowl win. Barry Odom didn't have near the success in his first season with the Boilermakers, but he had two excellent seasons for a downtrodden UNLV club before arriving at West Lafayette. An upset here wouldn't shock me.

Oregon -22' (up from -20') OKLAHOMA ST. - The 40 million dollar team blasted  Mike Gundy's team, 69-3, in Eugene a year ago. But Gundy is gone now, replaced by Eric Morris who had a rough debut losing 24-10 at Tulsa last week (my lone winning bet during a 1-2 day), despite outgaining the Golden Hurricane, 368 total yards to 361. The Cowboys have a lot to clean up after being stopped on downs four times and committing four turnovers in that game. I was in Eugene last weekend for the Ducks' 34-27 win over Boise. I was surprised at the lack of discipline by the home team in that game. Oregon committed ten penalties, including two for unsportsmanlike conduct and a few false starts. Statistically they outgained the Broncos by over 200 yards, but went 0-3 on fourth down conversions and had a muffed punt leading to a BSU score. The Ducks have won their last 12 true road games, but extreme heat and humidity and an early start time could be problematic here. They should win, but I'm not so sure they cover.

More later.

Saturday afternoon games

SYRACUSE -3' (flipped from +1') California - Again, I agree with the line move here. The Golden Bears had high hopes going into last week's home opener against UCLA. But before a sellout crowd they fell apart in the fourth quarter, allowing 21 unanswered points in a 45-24 loss in which they surrendered 271 yards rushing (8.5 YPR). Now they make the first of three long trips to the East Coast to face a Syracuse team that should be vastly improved, coming off a 3-9 year in which QB Steve Angeli suffered a season ending Achilles injury in the fourth game. The Orange went 0-8 in his absence. He's baaaaack, and it's 'Cuse or nobody in this one.

ILLINOIS -6 (down from -8') Duke - The Blue Devils committed five turnovers in last year's 45-19 loss in Durham, but they outgained the Illini in that game, 438 yards to 419. Last week, in a 17-3 win over Tulane, RB Nate Sheppard had 227 of Duke's 250 yards rushing (5.1 YPR). They'll be going up against an Illinois defense that gave up 194 yards on the ground (4.0 YPR) to UAB, in a 42-23 win last Thursday, in which they were outgained 413 yards to 332. Leading 14-13, the Illini got a 54 yard Hail Mary TD pass to end the first half and went on a 28-3 run to put the game away. I'm leaning Duke in this one, but they'll need more from new QB Walter Eget, who went a pedestrian 13 of 27 for 131 yards against the Green Wave.

UAB -10 (up from -7') UL-Monroe - Speaking of the Blazers, in addition to getting burned on a Hail Mary pass, a pick six was also part of that 28-3 run by Illinois. They'll be going up against a Warhawk defense that was torched for 762 yards by Mississippi St. last week. ULM allowed the Bulldogs to score on their first eight possessions in a 62-13 massacre.

Unlv -3' (down from -6') NORTH TEXAS - This could be a trap game for the Rebels. They're on the road again following last week's 21-6 conference win at Hawaii. They may have a bit of a letdown against a Mean Green team off a respectable showing at Indiana. They only trailed the defending champs 31-16 going into the fourth quarter, ran 67 plays to the Hoosiers' 46, had the ball for over 37 minutes and the total yardage was virtually even. The betting public is all over UNLV here, but the "smart money" appears to be on the other side.

BOISE ST. -8' (up from -6') Memphis - There's a lot a stake in this one. The winner has the inside track to the Group of Six CFP bid. The Tigers are off to a solid 2-0 start and this looks like a lot of points, but Memphis is making their second long road trip in three weeks. The Broncos are coming off a solid effort in Eugene last week, and I was impressed with their discipline in a tough venue. BSU committed just TWO penalties and didn't have a single turnover in their 34-27 loss to Oregon. For the most part they were solid against the Ducks' ground game and their tackling appears vastly improved over last season. It's Boise's home opener and I'll be a part of the sellout crowd!

Good stuff man. I bet North Texas last week and looking to again. I like Syracuse too

Love the Ducks, QB edge Blowout   

The Boise/Western Michigan game coming up in a couple of weeks is going to be must see TV. 

good luck -- prior to your musings, I've already played:  Rutgers, Army, Purdue, Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Memphis of those you listed -- good luck to us 

Saturday evening games

Tulsa -13' (up from -10') SAM HOUSTON - I really like this Tulsa team, but this feels like another potential trap game as they're  coming off that huge home upset of Oklahoma St.  Meanwhile, the Bearkats played Troy tough on the road last week and now they return to Huntsville, where they'll play their first home game in two years at newly renovated Bowers Stadium. The Golden Hurricane won for me last week, and this line feels like it should be higher, but my gut is telling me to pass on this one.

CLEMSON -20' (down from -26') Georgia Southern - Over 60% of the public bets are on the Tiger Paw in this game, despite the beatdown they experienced at LSU last week (outgained in total yardage, 644-145, and allowed 309 yards rushing). Was LSU that good or is Clemson just that bad? I do think that by this time next year Dabo Swinney will probably be in the broadcast booth. I'm picking up a Mike Gundy/Oklahoma St. vibe from this program. After last season's 17-10 loss to LSU they nearly lost to Troy in Week Two and went on to have their first losing season at home since 1988! Now they COULD rebound off last week's loss in a big way and beat the crap out of Georgia Southern, but I'm not betting on it. In fact, I'm kind of leaning the other way. Prove me wrong Dabo.

Navy -4' (down from -6') FLORIDA ATLANTIC - The Midshipmen are another popular bet with the public (65%) and won (but didn't cover) last year's meeting, 42-32, in Annapolis. I'm not sure what you can take from the Middies' rout of FCS Towson, but I like this Owls team, and I'm gonna give them a pass for the 66-21 beatdown that was administered to them by the Gators in Gainesville last week. HC Zach Kittley is in his second year and they look improved across the board. They may be worth a look here.

IOWA -14 (up from -11') Iowa St. - The Cyclones have won three of the last four meetings, and all four were all decided by seven points or less. But HC Matt Campbell left Ames for Penn St. and took nearly half the squad with him. New head man Jimmy Rogers went 27-3 at South Dakota St. but has a tall task here with a gutted roster. The Hawkeyes appear to be in good shape to reclaim the Cy-Hawk trophy.

LSU -35' (up from -31') Louisiana Tech - The Bayou Bengals COULD win this one by 40 plus, if they want to. But off that blowout win over Clemson and with a huge road trip to Ole Miss on deck, I doubt we see the intensity we saw last week. 

TEXAS -1' (up from a pick 'em) Ohio St. - The Longhorns are looking to avenge last year's 14-7 opening day loss in Columbus. The 'Horns actually won the stat battle in that game, 336 total yards to 203, but lost the only stat that matters; the scoreboard. I have no idea what's gonna happen in this game, but it's definitely much watch TV.

Texas Tech -25' ( down from -27') OREGON ST. - The Red Raiders opened up a can of whup ass on the Beavers last season, 45-14, in Lubbock, and they could do it again. I expect a better effort from them than last week's snooze fest win over Abilene Christian. But the Beavs were competitive last week in Houston, trailing just 26-20 in the fourth quarter before the Cougars put the game away with a late TD drive. OSU didn't commit a turnover in that game and only had five penalties. They'll need a repeat performance in order to hang with the Red Raiders.

That's it for this week. All comments and opinions are welcome. Cheers! 

Oklahoma State pretty bad 

All chalks?!?? You’re a clown!!! Here fishy fishy 

@JustinFields00

 Boisestateand8 is one of the best reads on this forum, consistently. You trolls are the reason this site has become a ghost town.  Schmuck. 

Read the very first paragraph on the very first post.......carefully. Ya really gotta work on your reading comprehension skills son. 

@JustinFields00

 not picks just breaking down the games. go ahead and do the troll thing or whatever you want to call it