It is hard to believe but the college football season is upon us! While it signals a near end to summer, it also signals the start of the best time of year in sports in my opinion. Some will argue March Madness and futball people will argue the World Cup but football is where it is.
Handicapping the early part of college football can be a challenge as there is not a whole lot to go by. Unlike the NFL, past history (even back to last season) needs to be looked at cautiously because of the turnover that college programs go through.
How do we tackle these early season games? There are a number of factors we need to take into account and use to our advantage.
Experience
This is one of the bigger aspects of early betting. As mentioned, turnover is big in this game so teams coming back with a lot of returning players usually have a big edge against teams with little experience returning. This is especially important across the offensive and defensive lines.
Depth
Fall camps are long and tiresome for teams and players and a lot of them may still not be in 100 percent playing shape. While returning starters is what most look at, take a look at returning lettermen as well as depth plays a huge role in these early season games. A lot of depth means fresher bodies throughout a game.
Injuries
When looking at preseason depth charts, you have to be on top of injuries and suspensions as these can change the whole makeup of a team. Most are aware of the big-name players that may be out but it the lesser known names that can make a big difference as well.
Spread Limit
With early non-conference games, we see some big numbers. Set yourself a spread limit. A team that is favored by 30 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 30 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Make a number limit and stick to it.
Go Contrarian
While we do not have a lot of early info on teams, neither do the linesmakers. They have to rely on past information and results in making early lines and they can be way off. If a number looks shady, it probably is and that is where we look the other way. There is nothing wrong with going against the consensus.
Preseason Polls
These polls come out well in advance of the season and things can change dramatically from when they were released. Don’t even bother looking at rankings. It is more made for TV rankings and for discussions on ESPN than helping anyone in handicapping.
This is just a small sample of what we need to look at early in the season. What other factors do you look at?
Matt Fargo is a Professional handicapper at Covers Experts, where “We only make money when you do”.
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