Posted:
#1
Lookahead lines. All the value lies in them IF you want to lay a bet early to get paid later (a disciplined approach).
Because when you get to the actual game, the spread is likely to be drastically different.
What is Purdue this year in terms of wins and losses? Average. Vegas has them at 6.
Why six after a godsend of a bowl win and seven last year?
Two reasons:
1. Their schedule is tougher.
The NCAA has them as the 23rd toughest in terms of opponents 2017 win %'s.
But don't trust them. Trust Phil Steele. Based on his power rankings and projected WL's (a far better metric) he has them at the SECOND toughest schedule in the nation.
So that means this will be a bumpy road for Purdue.
Add to that there are a SLEW of defensive defections. Only FOUR returning starters.
This team needs a defense. They didn't even know how to TACKLE under Hazell.
That is why Brohm is a miracle worker. He maximizes Purdue's potential.
BUT he can only work his magic so much. And Mizzou is NOT the spot to do it against.
Pound for pound if you stack up Drew Lock, the experience and Mizzou's offense against against Purdue with the Sindelar and Blough combo at QB + a strong (but oft injured) RB core, with some decent receivers the answer is clear: Mizzou's offense wins out every time. Add in a quality 96 starts for the O-Line to protect Lock.
And because of all Purdue's defections on defense, Mizzou is a clear winner on that side of the ball with 7 returning starters and depth Linebacker, DB and special teams.
And after all this, Purdue's win AT Missouri last year REALLY opened the floodgates on a season that was about to turn into a disaster. It was a game they are not too soon to forget.
The revenge factor, however cliche, rears its ugly head here for a repeat performance at home for Purdue, except this time it will be against them ( and against a team with very little 'home field advantage').
Brohm will throw the kitchen sink at them with all the tricks he has up his sleeve but a gimmick offense, and he will have them kicking and screaming as they go down. But Purdue will be a team that will likely just try to control the bleeding here against an angry Mizzou O spells a loss with a great line.
Missouri -2.5 over Purdue
(I moved my site's line with some big bets from -1)
+
With the second toughest schedule in the nation, a year of tape on Brohm's tricks, and no clear path that I see to 7, I see Purdue going into the Old Oaken Bucket game (a VERY tough game to win) on the road in Indiana for a bowl in a revenge game and a game Indy always gets up for, and a coin flip game they can lose and that will only push this bet.
Purdue under 6 wins (-130)
0
I trust the metric, not the man. The metric speaks for itself...
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