Kap, I saw you had 3 sets of lines for the Boise game, im assuming 3 different math models, if thats the case, to make a play on a game, do you need your program to have a certain difference within the pointspread for it to become a play?
0
Kap, I saw you had 3 sets of lines for the Boise game, im assuming 3 different math models, if thats the case, to make a play on a game, do you need your program to have a certain difference within the pointspread for it to become a play?
Kap, I saw you had 3 sets of lines for the Boise game, im assuming 3 different math models, if thats the case, to make a play on a game, do you need your program to have a certain difference within the pointspread for it to become a play?
I have to have 2 of 3 sets, at a minimum. showing a team covering to make a play. If I have all three it's a definate bet. In addition to that, I like to have an advantage of atleast 3 points vs the spread up through week 8. Week 9 thru the end, I'll bet a 2 point advantage. This all depends on the % To Cover. On this I have to have a 60% or better. Most of my lines are created using a 76 game sample of the closest games to my math models. It's kind of tough early on, and as I've said all along, it was designed for weeks 9-15. It will get more accurate after week 8.
I have certain parameters that I always look for. All three sets calling for a cover. A 10 point advantage vs the spread. 80%+ chance to cover. If I see all three of those, it will be a large bet. A perfect example was Tennessee lastweek. I wasn't even gonna look at this game(the line looked right), but did later in the week out of boredom. Up until then I had 1% on all my bets. I capped Tenn/Geo and came up with a line of Tennessee -14.52. An advantage of 13.02. I had a chance to cover of 88.05%. These were huge numbers, and I made it a 3% bet. Ended up being a blowout.
I was just messing around with a new wrinkle a little bit ago, and saw something about USF that was off the charts. I haven't capped it yet, but venture to say UC will be a play even though I haven't recovered from my "road fave" blues from lastnight yet.
It's a work in progress, but I feel real good about where it will go.
0
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
Kap, I saw you had 3 sets of lines for the Boise game, im assuming 3 different math models, if thats the case, to make a play on a game, do you need your program to have a certain difference within the pointspread for it to become a play?
I have to have 2 of 3 sets, at a minimum. showing a team covering to make a play. If I have all three it's a definate bet. In addition to that, I like to have an advantage of atleast 3 points vs the spread up through week 8. Week 9 thru the end, I'll bet a 2 point advantage. This all depends on the % To Cover. On this I have to have a 60% or better. Most of my lines are created using a 76 game sample of the closest games to my math models. It's kind of tough early on, and as I've said all along, it was designed for weeks 9-15. It will get more accurate after week 8.
I have certain parameters that I always look for. All three sets calling for a cover. A 10 point advantage vs the spread. 80%+ chance to cover. If I see all three of those, it will be a large bet. A perfect example was Tennessee lastweek. I wasn't even gonna look at this game(the line looked right), but did later in the week out of boredom. Up until then I had 1% on all my bets. I capped Tenn/Geo and came up with a line of Tennessee -14.52. An advantage of 13.02. I had a chance to cover of 88.05%. These were huge numbers, and I made it a 3% bet. Ended up being a blowout.
I was just messing around with a new wrinkle a little bit ago, and saw something about USF that was off the charts. I haven't capped it yet, but venture to say UC will be a play even though I haven't recovered from my "road fave" blues from lastnight yet.
It's a work in progress, but I feel real good about where it will go.
I have to have 2 of 3 sets, at a minimum. showing a team covering to make a play. If I have all three it's a definate bet. In addition to that, I like to have an advantage of atleast 3 points vs the spread up through week 8. Week 9 thru the end, I'll bet a 2 point advantage. This all depends on the % To Cover. On this I have to have a 60% or better. Most of my lines are created using a 76 game sample of the closest games to my math models. It's kind of tough early on, and as I've said all along, it was designed for weeks 9-15. It will get more accurate after week 8.
I have certain parameters that I always look for. All three sets calling for a cover. A 10 point advantage vs the spread. 80%+ chance to cover. If I see all three of those, it will be a large bet. A perfect example was Tennessee lastweek. I wasn't even gonna look at this game(the line looked right), but did later in the week out of boredom. Up until then I had 1% on all my bets. I capped Tenn/Geo and came up with a line of Tennessee -14.52. An advantage of 13.02. I had a chance to cover of 88.05%. These were huge numbers, and I made it a 3% bet. Ended up being a blowout.
I was just messing around with a new wrinkle a little bit ago, and saw something about USF that was off the charts. I haven't capped it yet, but venture to say UC will be a play even though I haven't recovered from my "road fave" blues from lastnight yet.
It's a work in progress, but I feel real good about where it will go.
Excellent work my friend, you are a great asset to this forum! I have one more question if you dont mind. Do you see a higher correlation of covers with your program plays if or when the betting percentages of the public is against your plays? Thanks in advance!
0
Quote Originally Posted by kaplan:
I have to have 2 of 3 sets, at a minimum. showing a team covering to make a play. If I have all three it's a definate bet. In addition to that, I like to have an advantage of atleast 3 points vs the spread up through week 8. Week 9 thru the end, I'll bet a 2 point advantage. This all depends on the % To Cover. On this I have to have a 60% or better. Most of my lines are created using a 76 game sample of the closest games to my math models. It's kind of tough early on, and as I've said all along, it was designed for weeks 9-15. It will get more accurate after week 8.
I have certain parameters that I always look for. All three sets calling for a cover. A 10 point advantage vs the spread. 80%+ chance to cover. If I see all three of those, it will be a large bet. A perfect example was Tennessee lastweek. I wasn't even gonna look at this game(the line looked right), but did later in the week out of boredom. Up until then I had 1% on all my bets. I capped Tenn/Geo and came up with a line of Tennessee -14.52. An advantage of 13.02. I had a chance to cover of 88.05%. These were huge numbers, and I made it a 3% bet. Ended up being a blowout.
I was just messing around with a new wrinkle a little bit ago, and saw something about USF that was off the charts. I haven't capped it yet, but venture to say UC will be a play even though I haven't recovered from my "road fave" blues from lastnight yet.
It's a work in progress, but I feel real good about where it will go.
Excellent work my friend, you are a great asset to this forum! I have one more question if you dont mind. Do you see a higher correlation of covers with your program plays if or when the betting percentages of the public is against your plays? Thanks in advance!
Those are the defenses that South Florida has faced. In games vs 1A opponents UC is averaging 5.05 yards per attempt/ USF is averaging 4.38. UC is allowing 2.94 yards per attempt/ USF is giving up 3.12. UC is 2/3 on FGA's. USF is 3/9 on FGA's. Both teams are good in TO margin. Neither team can punt. Cincy with a slight advantage in punt ret's. Tony Pike's a beast. BJ Daniels has looked pretty good.
Wofford 1AA
Western Kentucky 112
Charleston Southern 1AA
Florida State 25
Syracuse 103
Those are the offenses So Fla has faced.
Adding:UC (-2) 2%
0
Wofford 1AA
Western Kentucky 120
Charleston Southern 1AA
Florida State 108
Syracuse 79
Those are the defenses that South Florida has faced. In games vs 1A opponents UC is averaging 5.05 yards per attempt/ USF is averaging 4.38. UC is allowing 2.94 yards per attempt/ USF is giving up 3.12. UC is 2/3 on FGA's. USF is 3/9 on FGA's. Both teams are good in TO margin. Neither team can punt. Cincy with a slight advantage in punt ret's. Tony Pike's a beast. BJ Daniels has looked pretty good.
Excellent work my friend, you are a great asset to this forum! I have one more question if you dont mind. Do you see a higher correlation of covers with your program plays if or when the betting percentages of the public is against your plays? Thanks in advance!
Can't say I've ever really tracked that. I'll give it a try.
0
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
Excellent work my friend, you are a great asset to this forum! I have one more question if you dont mind. Do you see a higher correlation of covers with your program plays if or when the betting percentages of the public is against your plays? Thanks in advance!
Can't say I've ever really tracked that. I'll give it a try.
I have to have 2 of 3 sets, at a minimum. showing a team covering to make a play. If I have all three it's a definate bet. In addition to that, I like to have an advantage of atleast 3 points vs the spread up through week 8. Week 9 thru the end, I'll bet a 2 point advantage. This all depends on the % To Cover. On this I have to have a 60% or better. Most of my lines are created using a 76 game sample of the closest games to my math models. It's kind of tough early on, and as I've said all along, it was designed for weeks 9-15. It will get more accurate after week 8.
I have certain parameters that I always look for. All three sets calling for a cover. A 10 point advantage vs the spread. 80%+ chance to cover. If I see all three of those, it will be a large bet. A perfect example was Tennessee lastweek. I wasn't even gonna look at this game(the line looked right), but did later in the week out of boredom. Up until then I had 1% on all my bets. I capped Tenn/Geo and came up with a line of Tennessee -14.52. An advantage of 13.02. I had a chance to cover of 88.05%. These were huge numbers, and I made it a 3% bet. Ended up being a blowout.
I was just messing around with a new wrinkle a little bit ago, and saw something about USF that was off the charts. I haven't capped it yet, but venture to say UC will be a play even though I haven't recovered from my "road fave" blues from lastnight yet.
It's a work in progress, but I feel real good about where it will go.
Been following you and the progress of your work since week 1. Really interested to see how it developes as the season goes forward. The Vols play was impressive last week.
UC tonight.
0
Quote Originally Posted by kaplan:
I have to have 2 of 3 sets, at a minimum. showing a team covering to make a play. If I have all three it's a definate bet. In addition to that, I like to have an advantage of atleast 3 points vs the spread up through week 8. Week 9 thru the end, I'll bet a 2 point advantage. This all depends on the % To Cover. On this I have to have a 60% or better. Most of my lines are created using a 76 game sample of the closest games to my math models. It's kind of tough early on, and as I've said all along, it was designed for weeks 9-15. It will get more accurate after week 8.
I have certain parameters that I always look for. All three sets calling for a cover. A 10 point advantage vs the spread. 80%+ chance to cover. If I see all three of those, it will be a large bet. A perfect example was Tennessee lastweek. I wasn't even gonna look at this game(the line looked right), but did later in the week out of boredom. Up until then I had 1% on all my bets. I capped Tenn/Geo and came up with a line of Tennessee -14.52. An advantage of 13.02. I had a chance to cover of 88.05%. These were huge numbers, and I made it a 3% bet. Ended up being a blowout.
I was just messing around with a new wrinkle a little bit ago, and saw something about USF that was off the charts. I haven't capped it yet, but venture to say UC will be a play even though I haven't recovered from my "road fave" blues from lastnight yet.
It's a work in progress, but I feel real good about where it will go.
Been following you and the progress of your work since week 1. Really interested to see how it developes as the season goes forward. The Vols play was impressive last week.
1 of 2 things will happen these next couple weeks. This system will start picking better than 55% and I'll feel like all this time is paying off, or it will stay where it's at (or go down) and I'll realize it takes somebody a tad smarter than a midwest factory worker to beat the lines.
lmao read what you just said.. either this system will win stay the same or go down? how stupid is that.. thats like saying either this team will lose or win tommorow heck they might even tie.
0
Quote Originally Posted by kaplan:
YTD: 29-23 (55.76%) + 10.95 %
1 of 2 things will happen these next couple weeks. This system will start picking better than 55% and I'll feel like all this time is paying off, or it will stay where it's at (or go down) and I'll realize it takes somebody a tad smarter than a midwest factory worker to beat the lines.
lmao read what you just said.. either this system will win stay the same or go down? how stupid is that.. thats like saying either this team will lose or win tommorow heck they might even tie.
Kaplan, I use a computer system as well to cap picks, my man. Here is a little advice, from what I've learned based on the 12 years my system has been used: --- You have to use a little bit of 'human factor' to pick these games and make them a play. The games you have that are 56% but you're giving 17 points.....well, they may hit, however, you are better off using some of your own judgement on them. Are they coming off a bye week? Are they coming off a huge rivalry win? Strength of schedule? And just things like that. Let the computer do most of the work for you, but add in your own touch to it. At least that is what I have learned.
0
Kaplan, I use a computer system as well to cap picks, my man. Here is a little advice, from what I've learned based on the 12 years my system has been used: --- You have to use a little bit of 'human factor' to pick these games and make them a play. The games you have that are 56% but you're giving 17 points.....well, they may hit, however, you are better off using some of your own judgement on them. Are they coming off a bye week? Are they coming off a huge rivalry win? Strength of schedule? And just things like that. Let the computer do most of the work for you, but add in your own touch to it. At least that is what I have learned.
Kaplan, I use a computer system as well to cap picks, my man. Here is a little advice, from what I've learned based on the 12 years my system has been used: --- You have to use a little bit of 'human factor' to pick these games and make them a play. The games you have that are 56% but you're giving 17 points.....well, they may hit, however, you are better off using some of your own judgement on them. Are they coming off a bye week? Are they coming off a huge rivalry win? Strength of schedule? And just things like that. Let the computer do most of the work for you, but add in your own touch to it. At least that is what I have learned.
Thank You very much for the advice. You make good points. Please feel free to give me additional pointers anytime.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Ball_Picker:
Kaplan, I use a computer system as well to cap picks, my man. Here is a little advice, from what I've learned based on the 12 years my system has been used: --- You have to use a little bit of 'human factor' to pick these games and make them a play. The games you have that are 56% but you're giving 17 points.....well, they may hit, however, you are better off using some of your own judgement on them. Are they coming off a bye week? Are they coming off a huge rivalry win? Strength of schedule? And just things like that. Let the computer do most of the work for you, but add in your own touch to it. At least that is what I have learned.
Thank You very much for the advice. You make good points. Please feel free to give me additional pointers anytime.
Uconn coulda made a good week a great week. -3 in turnovers. Missed 2 PAT's and I lose by half a point. Bad thing is, I could've waited and got the line at 13 later in the week and atleast got the push. That's how it goes.
The grind continues.
0
Week: 5-4 YTD: 34-27-1
Week %: +3.95 YTD%: +14.9
Week 1: 3-3
Week 2: 4-2
Week 3: 5-2-1
Week 4: 6-8
Week 5: 4-1
Week 6: 7-7
Week 7: 5-4
WEEK: YTD
Home Faves: 3-1 13-7
Home Dogs: 1-0 4-3-1
Road Faves: 1-24-7
Road Dogs: 0-1 13-10
Wager %:
4% 1-0
3% 5-2
2% 12-7
1% 16-18-1
Uconn coulda made a good week a great week. -3 in turnovers. Missed 2 PAT's and I lose by half a point. Bad thing is, I could've waited and got the line at 13 later in the week and atleast got the push. That's how it goes.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
. I like PSU, Va Tech, and Bama. Guess I'm a square too. Good Luck.
this week Brother
Iowa St it is
tonight. 
Been getting a little schooling on'em.
Hot Forum Topics
