KANSAS STATE VS. WEST VIRGINIA

Let me start out by giving props to Iowa State for playing a very good football game last Saturday.  They have a very good team and should be given a lot of credit.  In fact, a lot of people think that playing Iowa State close at their house shouldn't have happened.  I completely disagree as they have a very very good linebacking core along with several other fine aspects of their team.

As to my opinion on the upcoming game, I am concerned about the revenge factor.  However, let me point out by saying that this KSU team has a lot of experience from last year's team and knows what it takes to win close ballgames and come from behind.  Somebody pointed out in another thread earlier today that Kansas State doesn't know how to come back from 10 point defecits and if they got into that situation this year, they would be dead in the water.  I disagree...Kansas State matured immensely last year and thrived on the competition.  Specifically, Baylor and RGIII and Oklahoma State.  Aside from Kansas State's offense, the Kansas State defense has improved a lot from last year.  With Bill Snyder planning out his attack, I can promise he is watching that T Tech game over and over and over.  Simply, Tech exposed West Virginia.

Aside from last week, West Virginia has been a force offensively.  That can go without saying.  Although, I am not all that impressed with their schedule thus far (Marshall, James Madison, Maryland, Baylor, Texas, T Tech).  The most impressive resume builder is Texas and look at what happened to Texas against OU???  I don't mean to disrespect West Virginia but I am simply looking at the past statistics and am finding that Kansas State has a good shot at pulling an upset this coming Saturday.  I personally have watched a lot of Kansas State football.  This team does not make a lot of mistakes and Klein is not only a phenominal athlete but makes very smart decisions (aside from the timeout call against KU at the end of the first half).  

West Virginia gives up 131.3 yards/game rushing (99/game @ home).  Home games have been Marshall, James Madison, Maryland.  

Kansas State has only played two road games...Oklahoma (4-1, 9th ranked offense) and Iowa State (4-2, 24th ranked defense).  Kansas State has a very balanced attack at 11th ranked rushing, 15th ranked scoring, and 19th ranked in defense.  It ain't sexy but it is indeed effective and that is and will be Bill Snyder's game plan.  

My Key's to the game for Kansas State:

Time of Possession - Good start to first half - No Penalties - Pressure on Geno Smith - Creating Turnovers

My Key's to the game for West Virginia:

Run and gun offense - Passing - Blocking up front - utilize the middle of the field for the 10-15 yard passes - stop the run   

Final Thoughts:

I believe that Kansas State will establish the run with Collin "Optimus" Klein and the drives will take a good chunk of the clock.  However, I do believe that West Virginia will answer with their stellar ability to pass and mobility by Geno Smith.  There may be a chance that Kansas State comes out flat in the first half but that is definately going to be emphasized in practice this week since KSU's lack of efforts against ISU last Saturday.  I do think that Kansas State will win this game straight up and end the game in victory formation.

Prediction:

Under 71.5

Kansas State +3 & ML+128

Kansas State 37 - West Virginia 31 

Good shit Cat - I agree 100%

So a poster with the username kansasstatecat who lives in Kansas is picking Kansas st to win?

Best of Luck 

Wow, AustinTX11...You are very observant.  I am trying not to be bias in my write up.  If you care to skip over the reading and go to the prediction then maybe you should stay off the thread. 

Kansas State owns Texas!

Don't be so bitter

not bitter. and i love how you're argument has to jump to k st owns texas lmao we arent talking about texas brah

Here's the deal. West Virginia doesn't have so much of a problem against the run as the pass. K State does not throw the ball particularly well. I see WVa getting some control of Klein but giving up points. The offense is likely to be clicking again at home but will not be in top form against a good defense. It's close but WVa wins.

ignore the Texas fan, KansasStateCat... his team just put up one of the most horrendously pathetic performances i have witnessed in 30 years of sports viewing... anything he posts is bound to be bitter and cynical... your write-up is spot on...

I like your analysis, I think Kansas St. wins but u give WVU defense too much credit. Gonna be more like 56-42. Very nice write up tho.

I think the wrong team is favored

No, I brought it up just to let you know that we own Texas but hey, I am sure you already realize that.  Read over the write up again and let me know if I am being unrealstic or not.  I tried not to be bias. 

I don't disagree with you on the WVU defense.  I am more confident in the side than I am the over/under.

Ahhh, I blow off Texas fans pretty easily.  I was more concerned about the bias comment.  I don't want anybody on here thinking I am being bias.  Don't get me wrong, as a Kansas State Alumn/fan...I sure as hell hope I am correct on my assessment

Hey man.. nice write up.

Here are my thoughts


Kansas ST is a very good football that is really well coached. Im not sure if anyone has given Kansas st the credit over the years thats not a k st fan more then me..... but I will say this.

Snyder can manipulate a game about as good as any coach I have ever seen....But this W.V team is different animal. Kansas st will have to score in this game to keep up. They have to! W.V is gonna light the score board up, make no mistake about that. This game really reminds me of last years game when you guys played Oklahoma st. Snyder wanted to slow it down in that game too... but simply couldn't due to the difference in the athletes he was up against in stillwater. If all things were equal and Snyder had the athletes like the other big schools, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. Snyder would win almost every game he coach's.

 But, these are the types of games where he knows at some point especially early on he will have to abandon and get into that shootout he hates so much. At no point will Kansas st stop W.V....the biggest question is how will W.V stop you guys. I will say this..................even the worst defensive football teams play a little better at home. And Saturday night, Morgantown will be hostile and the Mountaineers will feed off that.

BOL Buddy....But Im taking W.V and the Over

i think is a bit of a misconception...

while Geno Smith ranks #1 in pass efficiency, Collin Klein ranks a solid #18 in pass efficiency (159.6 rating)... and to put some of that in perspective...

David Ash from Texas has a 159.9 rating... against W Virginia, Ash was 22/29 for 269 yds, with 1 TD and 0 Int, and led Texas to 45 points...

to put THAT in perspective... last week (in cased you missed it), Ash played against Oklahoma, and went 13/29 for 113 yds, 0 TDs and 2 Int... led Texas to 0 points... Texas scored 2 pts on a "safety" and 6 on an defensive TD, then scored 13 pts in the last 2 minutes when Ash was on the bench...

to put THAT in perspective... against that same OU team (on the road), Collin Klein went 13/21 for 149 yds, 0 TDs, 0 Int (he did run for a TD on 79 yds rushing)... led K St to 17 pts (other 7 scored by the def) and a comfortable win on the road...



the key to it all is the defense... W Virginia gives up 37 pts per game, K St gives up 16.5... with very different styles of offense, that put up very similar results...

both teams have excellent special teams, but Kansas St definitely has the better coach...

Excellent points Boom_Boom...It is funny you bring up the Oke State game because that is the exact game this reminds me of as well.  Only difference is that KSU's defense has matured more and Arthur Brown has become even more of a leader than last year.  But great, great analogy on the Oke State game last year.  It will be a hostile crowd...

Good points/research ApocalypseLater

Baylor and their 63 points suggests otherwise... in theory, yes, defense will play better at home... but to suggest THIS defense is significantly different at home, to the point that they can be expected to not have 45+ points put up on them just because it's a home game... i disagree...

also disagree that Kansas St will "at no point stop W Virginia"...

Big 12 teams are not over-whelmed by what W Virginia brings to the table, and preparing for it is a fairly routine task for Bill Snyder... they see powerful offense every week...

the team that is in over their heads is W Virginia... they've come from the offensively inept Big East (where they routinely surrendered 30 or 40 points to teams like Pittsburgh or South Florida)... to the Big 12... where those teams frequently have ZERO players who would be starters on most teams in the Big 12...


on another thread people talked about squares being too late to see value... i couldn't disagree more strongly with respect to this game... THIS IS THE YEAR to get as much value as you can betting against W Virginia as they go through the Big 12... this is no time to jump off of the fade wagon...

if you think W Virginia is lighting up Snyder's defense, i think you are fooling yourself... i've seen this W Virginia offense struggle against far worse defenses than this one... they can frequently become too predictable, and rely on Geno or Austin's individual play-making ability... whereas Kansas St is a well-oiled, fundamentally disciplined, offensive machine...


i think you'll get your over bet... but it's Kansas St who is gonna get you there...

for the record, i think k st covers this game....I was giving you shit...i don't know if you are a homer are not, i can't keep up, there are tons on this site.

People all week throw the texas ou game in my face....which is why i created a thread on that game stating that OU would cover...go look it up....I'm very aware on the history of ksu/texas, somehow the various homers here like to bring it up like i lose sleep over it? It's the opposite, I can't tell you how many times I have bet on Kst over texas...i could give a shit what these idiot players do, who they beat....as long as i make money....thats all that matters.

What is k st ranked? #4....personally i don't think they are the #4 team and I don't think they will go undefeated, just my opinion though. however in this game i think you are on the right side.

Apocaly - I understand what your saying but you have to understand just how good Baylor is offensively.... now I know they didtn play well against TCU.. but there again, im speaking in " general "... at home at night I think W.V will score 50 points with ease against Kansas st... and thats not to knock k st.... hell, W.V will prolly score 50 on 110 teams in the country at home at night

This game isn't as easy as it looks. KSU has had problems in the past dealing with very good spread/passing teams. They gave up a ton of points last season against the better spread offenses in the league like OU, Baylor, OSU, A&M, TT giving up 34, 35, 50, 52, 58. And half of those games came at home. If Geno Smith is on his game, WV will put up 40+ on them. And I don't see Geno playing two bad games in a row.

Just a note about that WV/Baylor game. Baylor did some things in that game that WV DC DeForest said they weren't expecting and never saw on film. Like the extremely wide splits to where the Baylor WR's were lined up practically on the sidelines on both sides. Talk about spreading a defense out! I think if those two teams played again, we wouldn't see that same type of game. At least from WV's defense. Baylor defense is just plain outmanned in the Big 12 and will struggle all year. Unlike Baylor, WV at least has a decent run defense. Which will be significantly tested this week. But I believe when all is said and done, Klein will have to have a very good passing night to win the game.

Total moved to 73.5 - West Virginia -3