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JimmyDaFreak

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Posted: #501
First let me say i had clemson -6.5 and -7 along with some teasers with them at -1. SO trust me i was upset too but you are all missing the point. 

Dabo's choice to not kick the FG was pretty smart in my opinion. 

Did you all not see the extra point not even 5 min before that get blocked? What if they line up to kick the FG and it gets block .. You have a bunch of linemen trying to tackle skill players for auburn .. They end up taking it back and winning the game by 1. 

Where Dabo fucked up is calling a run play to the outside on 3rd down ... You cannot go out of bounds ... No matter what... 

Also on 4th you should be throwing the ball .. If you get the first down its over if you dont its a turnover and clock stops anyways ... Running the ball does not keep the clock running on a TO ... 

Also they had 1 TO left .. After auburn got to mid field and spiked it .. CLock already stopped ... Clemson should of called their TO. This would of allowed the D to regroup and get their breath.. The pass rushers were getting no pressure because they were completely winded ... Clemson is lucky to escape with a W .. Man that ending was nutsss... 

But for everyone bashing them for not kicking the FG you are dumb.  
Get your Chickens Right
 
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Posted: #502

Quote Originally Posted by oilers4eva:

i have never sweat so much as i did through the last few minutes of the clemson game. i didnt have clemson to cover, i had them on the money line. i put a ridiculous amount on this. emptied my account . i have not done something like this in a long time and i dont know what came over me to make such an unwise play but i did it. i won, but let me tell you i paid for it with sweat and fear. ill never fakking do this again. a hail mary would have destroyed me. 9300 risked to win 3000. scariest game of m y life. never again

I'm happy you won your bet!!!

 

 
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Posted: #503
Quote Originally Posted by Traviz177:

Nice call on USM @ bitcoinz. Tailed at +3.5 bought the hook much respect boss

You bet man... Kentucky came to play a lot more than expected with their new unheard of QB.  Glad it worked out... I put 15k on them at half time and made bank ;)

Im 8 out 12 so far!
 
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Posted: #504
Going to put this out there:

I agree with Jimmy on tonight with the under in the 1st half.  I just picked that up 2k on under 30.

My bet for Monday.

Ole Miss to cover the spread - $5,000
Ole Miss to win out right - $2,000

My thoughts on this game:

Ole Miss returns 90% of their DL with all the depth.  FSU is going to try and ride their RB to win this game.  Ole Miss has shown the ability with their DL to shut down the run - LSU and others.  Regardless if FSU is going to lean on the run they are going to find themselves in a lot of pain if Chad Kelly (which he will) jump out scoring right away.  Once they are down 14 points they will have to throw the ball which turns this into a different game.  I am saving 5k for halftime, but I think Ole Miss covers this one easy and wins this game.

Ole Miss concerns - OL... Lost some depth there but Kelly gets the ball out faster than any other QB in CF.  I watched a special on him comparing his release timing with NFL QBs and he was on PAR.  Even if they can get to him he is mobile and can throw on the run and Ole Miss tends to use a ton of Wide out screens to take the pressure off.  Also they got a new RB 4 star that looks like he might be the guy....

Just my thoughts here.

Full disclosure - I wen to Ole Miss.  Regardless though, I think this one is a good pick.
 
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Posted: #505
Quote Originally Posted by Svern002:

First let me say i had clemson -6.5 and -7 along with some teasers with them at -1. SO trust me i was upset too but you are all missing the point. 

Dabo's choice to not kick the FG was pretty smart in my opinion. 

Did you all not see the extra point not even 5 min before that get blocked? What if they line up to kick the FG and it gets block .. You have a bunch of linemen trying to tackle skill players for auburn .. They end up taking it back and winning the game by 1. 

Where Dabo fucked up is calling a run play to the outside on 3rd down ... You cannot go out of bounds ... No matter what... 

Also on 4th you should be throwing the ball .. If you get the first down its over if you dont its a turnover and clock stops anyways ... Running the ball does not keep the clock running on a TO ... 

Also they had 1 TO left .. After auburn got to mid field and spiked it .. CLock already stopped ... Clemson should of called their TO. This would of allowed the D to regroup and get their breath.. The pass rushers were getting no pressure because they were completely winded ... Clemson is lucky to escape with a W .. Man that ending was nutsss... 

But for everyone bashing them for not kicking the FG you are dumb.  

You sir, are dead wrong.  You're up 6 with a chance to put the game away.  Instead, he gave Auburn a chance to win the game outright.  Can you imagine if Auburn would've caught one of those balls in the endzone what we would've said then?  Put the game away.  And, the XP was not blocked earlier, it was just missed.  The chances of a blocked kick are probably around 5%.  
 
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Posted: #506
Hey jimmy man I really appreciate how you do this. Followed you last year and this weekend killing it as usual
 
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Posted: #507
Quote Originally Posted by Svern002:

First let me say i had clemson -6.5 and -7 along with some teasers with them at -1. SO trust me i was upset too but you are all missing the point. 

Dabo's choice to not kick the FG was pretty smart in my opinion. 

Did you all not see the extra point not even 5 min before that get blocked? What if they line up to kick the FG and it gets block .. You have a bunch of linemen trying to tackle skill players for auburn .. They end up taking it back and winning the game by 1. 

Where Dabo fucked up is calling a run play to the outside on 3rd down ... You cannot go out of bounds ... No matter what... 

Also on 4th you should be throwing the ball .. If you get the first down its over if you dont its a turnover and clock stops anyways ... Running the ball does not keep the clock running on a TO ... 

Also they had 1 TO left .. After auburn got to mid field and spiked it .. CLock already stopped ... Clemson should of called their TO. This would of allowed the D to regroup and get their breath.. The pass rushers were getting no pressure because they were completely winded ... Clemson is lucky to escape with a W .. Man that ending was nutsss... 

But for everyone bashing them for not kicking the FG you are dumb.  
After sleeping on it and having Wyoming lift my spirits up after that tough Clemson loss, I do see what you're saying. But it's not like their kicker is a scrub, he mad a 30+ yarder and a 40+ yarder earlier in the game. 27/32 last year. You're the #2 team in the country, by not kicking you're basically telling your special teams you have absolutely no trust in them. 

Then on the other side of the football, they go full on prevent to give Auburn two shots at the end zone. Their gameplan in the last 2 minutes could not have been worse. 

I'm not with the guys that say it was fixed, comeon now. But Clemson is a national contender year in and year out. I know Dabo kicks 9/10 and probably regretted it. 
 
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Posted: #508
Anyone looking at this game?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400869346
 
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Posted: #509
Hey jimmy, are you betting Texas + the points or just the 1st H under ?
 
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Posted: #510
Quote Originally Posted by bitcoinz:

Anyone looking at this game?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400869346

 
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Posted: #511
Is it stupid to take under 1st half 30 nd/texas

over 55 for the game/ how often do you hit both sides of these?
 
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Posted: #512
Quote Originally Posted by Dbreezyy:

Is it stupid to take under 1st half 30 nd/texas

over 55 for the game/ how often do you hit both sides of these?

Not at all..  Generally the over is better for the whole game and the under is better for the first half.  2nd half bets are a whole different animal.  If you think match up is going to produce the over, but you think the first half under looks good go both ways.  If anything its a hedge as well that has the potential to pin with both winning.  You could loose both, but odds are one will work.
 
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Posted: #513
I would say that its lower odds that both will work obviously but if you are unsure of what might happen and lean both ways this isnt a bad way to play the situational odds given time and the spreads
 
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Posted: #514

Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:

Hey jimmy, are you betting Texas + the points or just the 1st H under ?

No.  All the value has been sucked out of the line.  I like Texas, but I really need 4 points to pull the trigger on them.  I did do a small parlay on the 1st half UNDER with a Florida State ML.

 

 
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Posted: #515

Adding:

Mississippi @ Florida State UNDER 29.5 -105 (1st Half)

 

 
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Posted: #516
Sorry if I missed it but is ND @ Texas Under 29 (1st half) a regular or LARGE play tonight?
 
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Posted: #517

Quote Originally Posted by TheSource2Win:

Sorry if I missed it but is ND @ Texas Under 29 (1st half) a regular or LARGE play tonight?

I have 3 Units on it, which is a medium play for me.  My main concern about the games is that both offenses want to work fast.  I just don't see a whole lot of scoring early on.

 

 
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Posted: #518
over/under down to 54 when would you consider taking the over?
 
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Posted: #519
Still the best Avatar after these years.
 
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Posted: #520

Quote Originally Posted by Dbreezyy:

over/under down to 54 when would you consider taking the over?

I assume we're talking about the Texas game?

I would not bet over.  I'm seeing a 1st half total of 28, but even at 27 I would play the UNDER.

 

 
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Posted: #521
Quote Originally Posted by Dbreezyy:

Is it stupid to take under 1st half 30 nd/texas

over 55 for the game/ how often do you hit both sides of these?

It happened yesterday in the USC/Alabama game, but I'm not sure I would employ that as a betting strategy though.  Furthermore, if the 1st half stays UNDER, you're very likely to get a better number by betting OVER for the 2nd half.

I got burned on 2 or 3 occasions last season where I bet the 1st half UNDER, it went OVER, but stayed UNDER for the game.

 

 
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Posted: #522
any issues with putting a teaser together for this game?

Tex +10 / Over 48?
 
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Posted: #523
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Quote Originally Posted by TheSource2Win:

Sorry if I missed it but is ND @ Texas Under 29 (1st half) a regular or LARGE play tonight?

I have 3 Units on it, which is a medium play for me.  My main concern about the games is that both offenses want to work fast.  I just don't see a whole lot of scoring early on.

My books got it at 27 1/2 on the O/u should I wait
 
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Posted: #524
You guys like the under on ND team total (under 27.5)
 
 
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Posted: #525

Quote Originally Posted by Aloha_Inspire:


I have 3 Units on it, which is a medium play for me.  My main concern about the games is that both offenses want to work fast.  I just don't see a whole lot of scoring early on.
My books got it at 27 1/2 on the O/u should I wait

I would definitely play 27.5.  That's more what I expected to see when the line first came out.  When I saw I could get over 4 TDs in the first half, I had to jump.

I wouldn't wait.  I think you're fine at that number.

 

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