Posted:
#1
Double posted, so deleted.
Is this ML parlay any good?
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Views: 858
Posts: 17
Posted:
#3
I am up about $3,600 gambling in casinos in AC for the last few weeks, so I was going to take a shot on a moneyline parlay for 2K on the weekend of 10/03 and the following were the picks in that parlay which paid +643 at DraftKings.
Alabama -218 Moneyline Mississippi State
Notre Dame -1650 Moneyline North Carolina
SMU -1800 Moneyline Boston College
Wake Forest -625 Moneyline Stanford
Georgia -3200 Moneyline Vanderbilt
Ohio State -625 Moneyline Iowa
Nebraska -700 Moneyline Maryland
Miami FL -750 Moneyline Clemson
Texas Tech -575 Moneyline Colorado
Boise State -1450 Moneyline Utah State
IND Colts -205 Moneyline WAS Commanders
BAL Ravens -675 Moneyline TEN Titans
MIN Vikings -550 Moneyline MIA Dolphins
I was up late Friday night gambling at Hard Rock AC where I was staying and I didn't follow through with the bet because I was too tired to drive over to Borgata to make the bet on a BetMGM betting kiosk since they had the best payout odd.
Sure enough it hit and I missed out winning $12,860. What's worse, it was one of the easiest wins ever as none of the games were very close.
Then, this morning around 5:30 AM, it looked like there was another opportunity for a decent ML parlay so even though I'm staying at Caesars I drove over to Borgata to wager all my casino winnings on a moneyline parlay with the teams listed below which pays +1206. If it wins, then I would win $43,416.
Ohio State -185 Moneyline Indiana
Northwestern -300 Moneyline Michigan State
Georgia -1400 Moneyline Auburn
Alabama -325 Moneyline Tennessee
Texas Tech -700 Moneyline Arizona State
Oregon State -1000 Moneyline Washington State
Miami FL -1600 Moneyline Florida State
South Florida -1400 Moneyline Kent State
Notre Dame -375 Moneyline BYU
Utah -750 Moneyline Colorado
NE Patriots -350 Moneyline NY Jets
LA Rams -800 Moneyline ARI Cardinals
KC Chiefs -450 Moneyline LA Chargers
SF 49ers -400 Moneyline WAS Commanders
After I made my picks on a betting kiosk and started to feed my money, it said something about there is a maximum payout amount something something, so I stopped after $800 and tried to bet it all and it said it wasn't allowed; something about exceeding maximum payout amount. Then, I tried $100 and it took it but all of sudden the kiosk shutdown and said there was an error.
Fortunately, there were 2 people from BegMGM collecting the cash box from the kiosks and when I told them what happened, they said I have to file a dispute to get the rest of my money back.
This got me thinking that someone doesn't want me to make the bet because I will probably lose.
So, my question to the board is this.
Do you see any of the picks losing SU?
Obviously, the possible losses in the college games are with the shortest odds and they are all away teams. I picked them because I feel they are the better teams and they should win at least.
Ohio State -185 at Indiana
Northwestern -300 at Michigan State
Alabama -325 at Tennessee
Notre Dame -375 at BYU
I don't see how any of the pro teams in the parlay could lose. They could but not very likely.
My backup plan in case any college teams in the parlay lose is to wager 2nd ML parlay with the pros only and wager $3,500 to hopefully break even or end up with a small profit since it should pay +110 or higher.
If I lose both, then I'm just back to square one since what I would lose is what I won in casinos for the last couple of months.
Posted:
#10
@smellybunty
Very wise advice and I should seriously heed. Thank you.
I don't bet on sports too often and only on football, and I don't normally start betting them until around this time of the year.
I just take shots here and there when I'm up in casinos and I am up about 7K in the last couple of months playing mostly baccarat.
It's one of those stupid mind game with these parlays. If I don't make the bet and it ends up winning, then it's going to really suck like how I already missed out winning $12K+.
Posted:
#12
@WHODATMIKE09
Perhaps, but if you keep on believing that then it will mess with how you bet and it can only lead to more losses.
In my humble opinion, sports betting is rather simple.
Just figure out who the better team is and bet it regardless of the point spread; unless of course if the spread is so high (mostly in college) which then you lay off it. It works for me. Or else, do the moneyline parlays.
I asked my little girls; 14 and 15 who knows absolutely nothing about football to make picks on the teams that are on my parlay.
Both girls picked 12 out of 14 the same; only difference were Washington State and Colorado. I don't know what the odd is for them to pick 12 teams the same as what I'm betting on my parlay but I'm beginning to think that I meant to bet this parlay except maybe remove the two teams they were different on.
It's rather incredible that one girl lost only once since the beginning of the season and she knows nothing about football.
She picked Buffalo Bills last night. Had I bet a dime on every one of her picks, I would be up tens thousands already.
Posted:
#14
Quote Originally Posted by DJK:
@WHODATMIKE09 Perhaps, but if you keep on believing that then it will mess with how you bet and it can only lead to more losses. In my humble opinion, sports betting is rather simple. Just figure out who the better team is and bet it regardless of the point spread; unless of course if the spread is so high (mostly in college) which then you lay off it. It works for me. Or else, do the moneyline parlays. I asked my little girls; 14 and 15 who knows absolutely nothing about football to make picks on the teams that are on my parlay. Both girls picked 12 out of 14 the same; only difference were Washington State and Colorado. I don't know what the odd is for them to pick 12 teams the same as what I'm betting on my parlay but I'm beginning to think that I meant to bet this parlay except maybe remove the two teams they were different on. It's rather incredible that one girl lost only once since the beginning of the season and she knows nothing about football. She picked Buffalo Bills last night. Had I bet a dime on every one of her picks, I would be up tens thousands already.
@WHODATMIKE09 Perhaps, but if you keep on believing that then it will mess with how you bet and it can only lead to more losses. In my humble opinion, sports betting is rather simple. Just figure out who the better team is and bet it regardless of the point spread; unless of course if the spread is so high (mostly in college) which then you lay off it. It works for me. Or else, do the moneyline parlays. I asked my little girls; 14 and 15 who knows absolutely nothing about football to make picks on the teams that are on my parlay. Both girls picked 12 out of 14 the same; only difference were Washington State and Colorado. I don't know what the odd is for them to pick 12 teams the same as what I'm betting on my parlay but I'm beginning to think that I meant to bet this parlay except maybe remove the two teams they were different on. It's rather incredible that one girl lost only once since the beginning of the season and she knows nothing about football. She picked Buffalo Bills last night. Had I bet a dime on every one of her picks, I would be up tens thousands already.
Wow, nice. Sounds like U have 2 special girls!!!
Posted:
#17
@smellybunty
As crazy as it sounds, I actually profited this weekend because of the cashout option.
I almost always have a backup plan and that is betting bigger ML parlays until I recover what I lost previously.
I had a big ML parlay on NFL and the last 3 remaining legs were Chiefs, Rams, and 49ers.
The Chiefs were leading by enough points, so they weren't a factor.
The Rams were pretty much losing the whole game until the very end of the game. Until then, the cashout options at both DraftKings and FanDuel were abymisal and I was about to lose thousands more as the cashout amounts were less than 20% of the original bet amounts.
But on their last TD drive, the cashout amounts kept on climbing and when they scored their last TD, it went up enough that I would actually end up with a small profit so I couldn't cash out fast enough.
When things looked very bleak for the Rams to win, I wanted to cashout so bad even with the huge loss as I just couldn't see how the Rams could win as the Cardinals were having their way with their offense and their defense was playing quite well.
But since I won even more in casinos as it was great in the last few days, I said to myself screw it and see if the Rams can score a TD and then I cash out. If things went wrong, I was sure the cashout offers would be withdrawn from both books that I use and I would lose it all.
Lucky for me that the Rams scored a TD and I couldn't cash out fast enough.
Crazy thing is that the Cardinals scored a field goal thanks to the phantom penalty and I would have lost it all if I didn't cash out.
With the casino winnings now I'm up $5K+ in the last few weeks. I'm beginning to think I should just stick with the casing gambling. Too much stress betting football for sure; especially stupid refs mucking things up and affecting the outcome in some of the games.
I'm sure it was a PI at the end of the Notre Dame vs BYU game and they also said that there was 1 second left for Notre Dame to have another shot at scoring. I'm sure it affected people who had Notre Dame ML in their parlays like in some of my subsequent parlays where Notre Dame was the only loss.
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