I come in here once a year to post THE BIG 1 for Rutgers.Well, THE BIG 1 is HERE!Michigan@Rutgers

2014 NFL Record - 2-0

2013 NFL Record - 65%

Folks, this is about as good as it gets for Rutgers.

I can write for days on this game but I will shorten it for the reader and get straight to the point.

When you cap games on a weekly basis, you need to assess one word about each team: MOTIVATION.

We know about the talent (or lack thereof) for each team. That is public knowledge. All the stats and trends in the world on every game are all over the web for you to digest and regurgitate.

But when it comes to two teams that are fairly evenly matched, and right now,  these two pretty much are, you have to assess whether one team is willing to sacrifice everything to get a win and whether the other team A) won't overcome that onslaught or B) simply isn't motivated.

I am here to tell you that not only is Rutgers motivated to win this game, it is one of the biggest games....in the history of the PROGRAM. How's that for an impetus to leave it all out on the field?

So there are two things to examine to make a bet on this game:

The state of both teams.

1) The State of the Wolverines

It couldn't be worse. I had thought the lowest of the low for this program was in 2007 when they lost to Appalachian State at HOME 34-32. I was wrong.

This month has been the worst in the history of this storied program.

The team hasn't had 3 losses in September in....

135 years.Until this past month...

Not only that, but as we all know by now, the team is plagued by a Shane Morris injury scandal, potentially threatening the health of of a concussed player.

Before Ray Rice and AP, this may have gotten swept under the rug. But football at all levels receives much more intense scrutiny now.

And because of that scrutiny, Brady Hoke, the head coach, has had to spend this entire week playing damage control for his actions last Saturday along with the President of the university itself.

This guy is a dead man walking. He has regressed every year since his hire in 2011 going: 11-2, 8-5, 7-6, and now he is 2-3.

Not only has he lost the team, but right now, he is attempting to remove a stain of embarrassment from the university while he awaits the end of his tenure. Deservedly, the front office is keeping him in the position, allowing the media to eat him alive, likely as a penance for his sins this month.

The name Rutgers hasn't received more than a passing mention in any of these press conferences. Why? They simply aren't on the radar. That is a good thing.

If you think this is a rebound game for Michigan against 'lowly' Rutgers, you are the guy who sees 15 blacks on the roulette wheel board and screams 'RED IS DUE!' and loses the rest of your stash when black hits yet again.

Note: Devin Gardner will be starting for Michigan. He is a fifth year senior. He does have an arm and is mobile so look for him to create like a poor-man's Michael Vick.

BUT, he makes some INCREDIBLY boneheaded turnovers. Just watch at 10:45 of the following video vs. Notre Dame last year (a game he performed very well in but this play is of note to show you how this guy is capable of throwing away games).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVrlpujv3x0#t=649

I think Rutgers gameplan should be to continually pressure this guy and make him do what he does best (like Nova is many ways): turn the ball over. His decision making is very poor so if Rutgers keeps bringing the heat, this guy with whither. He'll perform because he too is trying to save a season, but in the end, I don't think it will be enough. As a bonus if he goes down or gets rattled, he will be yanked immediately after last week. I have no idea who Michigan will use at that point but if the third-stringer comes in, Rutgers will smell blood.

This team is a falling knife. Don't put out your hand to catch it with a pick this Saturday.

Now onto the team we want to back.

2. The State of Rutgers

Do you know what a Mulligan is? A Mulligan is a second chance. More specifically, in sports, it is a do-over.

When you perform poorly the first time around, a Mulligan is a chance to erase that performance and replace it with your original intended performance.

This couldn't be a bigger Mulligan for Rutgers.

Over two weeks ago, Rutgers lost their first Big Ten game ever.

The crowd was incredible. The media presence was enormous. The campus was decorated and enthused for one of the most meaningful games in Rutgers history against an all-time great program.

And Rutgers gift-wrapped the win to Penn State (mind you, they covered with the +3.5 losing by 3 which is all we care about).

Penn State you say? Who cares? It was a team plagued by scandal and had is scholarships reduced to almost nothing.

Still to a team like Rutgers, it was the world.

And they failed...in the final minute.

So they went out and crushed Tulane and beat Navy in a nice away game performance and now they get what they really wanted: A chance at redemption with their batteries charged.

Now they get a more storied program and one of the all-time great teams, despite their performance this year. Yes, Rutgers will treat this game like Desmond Howard is still playing for Michigan even though this team isn't a pimple on that one's fanny.

If this is a lookahead spot, Rutgers will want to look at Michigan for as long as possible. This may be their only Big 10 win this year because a slew of losses are forthcoming with:

@Ohio State

@ Nebraska

Wisconsin

Indiana

@Michigan State

@ Maryland

I'd say there's but a single win left on that schedule, if that.
But Michigan is ripe for the taking.

I can assure you, you will get a 100% motivated Rutgers squad who will do everything possible to get this one.

You hate backing Gary Nova? He's only the most prolific passer in Rutgers history. Yes, he can be brutal. Yes, he can turn the ball over (multiple times). But he can also leave it all out on the field when the time is right. This is his last call and perhaps his last shining moment as Rutgers QB. He'll want that moment to end with a win.

One con for Rutgers: They lost their first string RB Paul James vs. Navy. That was not a good thing. Desmon People's is undersized at 5'8'' 175. Still he ran for 85 yards vs. Tulane. While Michigan isn't Tulane, Rutgers should be able to utilize him appropriately vs. their D.

I am posting today because the line has just moved a full point in our favor and it's time to pounce.

It opened at Rutgers -3.5. The public sees Rutgers as nothing more than a laughing stock and the game has been bet down to 2.5 obviously under the most key number of 3 for bettors. The public then shrugs and says "Well it is STILL Michigan so I'll take em!" No, it's not and no this isn't a laughing stock of a Rutgers team in this spot. We will swallow 2.5 as we have no other choice. A FG is enough to take it and a 10 point lead backdoored to 3 won't result in a push.

The crowd will be absolutely rabid for this game so expect full fan support and an even bigger media contingent than the Penn State game.

This game has Louisville@Rutgers 2006 written all over it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFlkYExb0ro

It's time to take down the goalposts in Piscataway.

3 stars (as this game should really be a pick'um)

The pick:

RUTGERS -2.5 over MICHIGAN

nice verbiage scal: 

GL on what should be a solid pick

Agree with you, Rutgers will win easy. Michigan have all kind of problems and look back what game they have won. They beat no team with big name.

GO RUTERSSSSSSSSSS