arizona state +14.5 TEXAS A&M
Alright, enough with the Texas A&M propaganda machine. The Aggies beat Missouri State 50-0, and suddenly College Station is acting like Mike Elko just parted the Red Sea using Marcel Reed's throwing arm. Mike Elko played at Penn. Go Quakers.
RELAX.
Missouri State also lost three fumbles, and Texas A&M happily scooped up those gifts like they were free brisket samples at Buc-ee's.
Now let's talk about the OTHER team.
Arizona State just scored 70 POINTS.
Cutter Boley went 21-for-27 for 387 yards and SIX TOUCHDOWNS, breaking Sun Devil records, in basically the amount of time it takes Christopher Nolan to explain the first 20 minutes of one of his movies. Arizona State piled up nearly 700 yards of offense. Kyson Brown averaged over 13 yards per carry. Eight different Sun Devils scored touchdowns. Morgan State isn’t as bad as Morgan Fairchild. They actually held North Carolina A&T to only 2.5 yards per carry. However, they were completely shredded by Arizona State, as the Sun Devils boat raced them up and down the field for 7.1 yards per carry and 249 yards on the ground for the day.
THEY HAD TO SHORTEN THE FOURTH QUARTER.
Read that again.
ARIZONA STATE BEAT MORGAN STATE SO BADLY THAT EVERYBODY INVOLVED BASICALLY LOOKED AROUND AND SAID, "Yeah, let's just wrap this thing up before somebody calls the United Nations." And now Vegas wants me to believe this team is getting MORE THAN TWO TOUCHDOWNS?
Yes, Texas A&M has at solid defense. Yes, Kyle Field will be louder than 107,000 people simultaneously discovering their DoorDash order is missing the queso. Yes, Marcel Reed is talented. BUT THE AGGIE OFFENSIVE LINE LOOKED LIKE A DISCOUNT IKEA FURNITURE SET IN THE FIRST HALF.
Two sacks. Penalties. Communication problems. Drives stalling. The unit eventually improved against Missouri State, but Arizona State is not Missouri State. Boley has legitimate weapons everywhere, and this Sun Devil offense can score faster than a Kardashian relationship changes status.
A&M could win the game, likely because they are the home team. Fine.
But win by 15?
Against an Arizona State team that just detonated the scoreboard for 70 points and nearly 700 yards?
NOPE.
I think Texas A&M gets pushed for three quarters before Kyle Field finally creates enough chaos to pull away late.
But Arizona State hangs around like that one guy at the party who absolutely refuses to leave after everyone else has gone home. Remember KGB Teddy telling Matt Damon that he keeps hanging around...hanging around. Pay that man his money...he beat me. I'm taking the points and the desert boys.
ARMY -3 south florida
If you watched South Florida vs. FIU, you know Brian Hartline’s offense looked like a Cyberpunk 2077 launch-day release: laggy, broken, and unplayable. USF lost Byrum Brown and Alex Golesh, leaving QB Michael Van Buren Jr. looking like a guy trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube blindfolded. The Bulls scraped by FIU with 208 total yards (3.6 yards per play!), scoring 13 fourth-quarter points off pure FIU brain farts and requiring kicker Nico "Automatica" Gramatica to bail them out like he’s Batman answering a distress signal. If you're relying on four field goals to beat FIU, going to West Point is going to feel like taking a butter knife to a nuclear test site.
Meanwhile, Army just dropped a Mad Max: Fury Road post-apocalyptic beatdown on Bryant, dropping 59 points and rolling up 569 rushing yards. SIXTEEN DIFFERENT CADETS CARRIED THE ROCK! It was like Oprah running the option: "You get 100 yards! You get a touchdown! Godspower Nwawuihe gets a touchdown!" Zach Mundell blew past people like he was powered by rocket fuel, averaging 26 yards a carry. Army controlled the clock, space, time, and probably the local Wi-Fi.
USF has one returning starter on offense and a completely retooled roster. Asking them to go into Michie Stadium—on the 25th anniversary of 9/11 week, no less—and stop an option attack that operates with the mechanical precision of an Swiss watch is pure comedy. USF's defense bended and didn't break against FIU, but Army's ground game doesn't bend; it runs you over like Thanos looking for the last Infinity Stone.
Army will hold the ball for 42 minutes, grind USF's soul into fine dust, and shorten this game to five possessions. Lay the 3 points with the Black Knights before the sharp money swallows the board whole.
The Pick: Army -3
appalachian state +9.5 EAST CAROLINA
Yoo Hoo Mountain Dew! The books are handing us Appalachian State +9.5. Are we looking at the same East Carolina team? East Carolina is laying nearly double digits here because the betting public apparently watched a team get vaporized 48-10 by Alabama and concluded, “You know what? These Pirates are probably REALLY GOOD.” That's like watching the Titanic sink and investing heavily in the cruise line because the orchestra sounded fantastic.The same ECU Pirates who just got turned into literal sea-faring chum by Alabama? Sure, it’s Bama, but 2 net rushing yards on 22 attempts?! That’s not a Division I ground game; that’s an elderly man trying to push a broken lawnmower through wet cement. YES, Alabama is Alabama. Nobody is denying that. ECU walked into Bryant-Denny Stadium against the Crimson Tide and got treated like the extra security guard in a Marvel movie. But the concerning part wasn't simply losing. ECU managed 162 yards, five first downs. Mitch Griffis was out there looking more lost than Hawk Tuah girl at a quantum physics convention. Meanwhile, their offense ranks dead last in the galaxy at converting third downs (0 for 9, baby!).
Did you see Malachi Singleton play last week? My man threw 22-for-24 for 291 yards and 3 TDs like he was playing NCAA Football on Freshman difficulty. He treated Maine’s secondary like candy from babies. The Mountaineers dropped 647 yards, rushed for 299 yards at 7.7 yards per carry, piled up 34 first downs, and won 55-3. ECU’s passing defense is ranked 92nd, and App State targets their receivers and backs more often than Taylor Swift gets targeted by NFL camera crews.
ECU's offense was already missing important weapons against Alabama, including starting receiver Brock Spalding and Landon Sides, and the injury situation remains a concern heading into App State. ECU also reportedly has defensive contributors unavailable. App State's offensive style can be a nightmare: dink, dunk, spread the ball around, then hit you with multiple rushing threats. Against Maine, 12 different receivers caught passes, nine players carried the ball and six different players scored touchdowns. You can't key on one guy because App State has more options than Netflix has terrible dating shows.
This isn't the 1985 Chicago Bears visiting the Washington Generals. App State has speed, a quarterback who looked sensational, a balanced offense and a defense coming off a dominant performance. ECU may win. But asking the Pirates to win by double digits after looking offensively allergic to first downs last week? NO THANK YOU.
I’m putting Appalachian State +9.5 in the cart, proceeding directly to checkout, and won't even look at the extended warranty. Mount Up! APP STATE +9.5 — LET'S RIDE.
memphis +7.5 BOISE ST
Everybody saw Boise State hang with Oregon and immediately started polishing the Broncos' helmets like they were going to run the Statue of Liberty play against Oklahoma and the guy would propose to the cheerleader and that they belonged on Mount Rushmore. YES, Boise played tough. YES, Maddux Madsen threw three touchdowns. YES, The Blue is louder than a toddler discovering a drum set at 5:30 in the morning. BUT LET'S LOOK AT THE NUMBERS BEFORE WE ALL START GETTING BOISE STATE TATTOOS ON OUR LOWER BACKS.
OREGON OUTGAINED BOISE 497-274. Oregon left enough meat on the bone to feed an entire Golden Corral.
That is not a small statistical discrepancy. That's the difference between buying NVIDIA stock and playing video games in mom’s basement. Meanwhile, Memphis has entered the season like Conor McGregor kicking open a convenience store door yelling, "WHERE'S THE MONEY?"
JAYLIN CARTER HAS 280 RUSHING YARDS AND FIVE TOUCHDOWNS IN TWO GAMES. The man isn't running behind offensive linemen. He's apparently riding a stolen motorcycle through the opposing defense while Vin Diesel hangs out the passenger window screaming about FAMILY.
Memphis is averaging 265 rushing yards per game, and Carter just dropped 183 yards and FOUR TOUCHDOWNS on Arkansas State. Meanwhile, Manny Covey adds another dangerous weapon. This is a two-headed rushing attack so nasty it should require a warning label from the Surgeon General.
AND THEN THERE'S THE MEMPHIS DEFENSIVE LINE. ELIJAH KINSLER HAS 3.5 SACKS. J'MOND TAPP IS ALSO CAUSING ABSOLUTE MAYHEM.
These dudes don't rush quarterbacks. They arrive at the backfield like the FBI serving warrants.
Boise State's offensive line just dealt with Oregon pressure, and now gets to welcome the Tigers' defensive front to town. Boise's offensive line couldn't establish the run against Oregon, and now they're getting Memphis coming downhill at them for 60 minutes. Yes, Boise is outstanding at home. Yes, the stadium is sold out. Yes, they're celebrating 40 YEARS OF THE BLUE TURF. Wonderful. Paint the entire state blue if you want. MEMPHIS IS STILL GETTING MORE THAN A TOUCHDOWN. THE TIGERS DON'T JUST COVER. THEY SHOW UP, EAT YOUR FOOD, SLEEP ON YOUR COUCH, AND REFUSE TO LEAVE UNTIL THE SPREAD IS BURIED IN THE BACKYARD.
The Tigers have already won a huge road game at UNLV, have explosive weapons, a devastating running game, and a fourth-quarter defense that has repeatedly slammed the door.
Boise may win this game. BUT BY MORE THAN 7.5? NOPE.
MEMPHIS +7.5.
georgia southern +23.5 CLEMSON
Clemson is laying TWENTY-THREE AND A HALF POINTS after LSU just beat them like they owed Brian Kelly money. Fifty-one to ten. And honestly? The 10 felt generous. Clemson had 145 yards, 40 rushing yards, eight first downs, TEN PUNTS, and converted one of thirteen third downs. That wasn't an offense. That was a missing persons report.
This ain't your daddy's Clemson. This ain't Trevor Lawrence Clemson. This ain't Deshaun Watson Clemson, with or without a happy ending. This Clemson currently looks like the TEMU version of those teams, delivered three weeks late with half the parts missing.
Meanwhile, Georgia Southern is coming into Death Valley with a seventh-year quarterback who has seen more college campuses than a DoorDash driver. Max Johnson threw for 281 yards in his debut, and the Eagles dropped 513 total yards while winning 31-0. They scored 21 points in the first quarter and then basically put Charleston Southern to sleep like a college freshman math major after drinking grain alcohol and IPA's.
The Eagles also recorded SIX sacks. Clemson just allowed four sacks to LSU and looked like their offensive line was constructed entirely from wet Kleenex. Georgia Southern's defense held its opponent to 117 total yards, forced two turnovers, and allowed EIGHT RUSHING YARDS.
YES, Charleston Southern isn't LSU. BUT CLEMSON AIN'T LSU EITHER. That's the whole damn point.
Clemson has quarterback questions. Vizzina? Reynolds? BOTH are playing. Nothing says "we have everything figured out" like spinning the quarterback wheel like you're selecting a character in Mario Kart. Clemson's defensive line got pushed around like a shopping cart with one bad wheel. LSU ran for more than 300 yards. Clemson didn't record a sack. Markus Strong is out for the season. The offensive line is shaky. The quarterbacks are unsettled. The entire program is getting roasted harder than a Costco rotisserie chicken.
Georgia Southern has NOTHING to lose. Experienced quarterback. Six returning defensive starters. Confidence. Momentum. And a team that already knows Clemson can bleed.
Could Clemson win? Of course. But who cares...someone left the back door open and the Eagles will keep slinging it til the horn goes off. Could they win by 24+? Based on what we saw last week, I'd sooner trust Dabo to discover the transfer portal by accident.
THE EAGLES ARE SCRAPPY.
THE TIGERS ARE ASS.
GIVE ME GEORGIA SOUTHERN +23.5 AND LET THE ENTIRE CLEMSON FAN BASE SWEAT THROUGH THEIR ORANGE SHIRTS UNTIL THE FOURTH QUARTER.
PREDICTION: CLEMSON 34, GEORGIA SOUTHERN 24.
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