Holiday Bowl Zona vs SMU

I really loved Arizona in this one when the matchup was announced. The line had gone from Zona -3.5 to -2.5 to now SMU -1.5 

Anyone have info on why the wild swing! I still really like the way Arizona finished the year, and SMU really choked losing to Cal and missing out on the Conference Championship game. 

Fade the movement and stick with your original play if you really love it. The exact same thing happened yesterday in the Oregon/TTU game (favorite to dog) and look how that turned out 

I also like Arizona and think it matters a lot more to them. They were absolutely rolling to end the year and looks like their opt-outs are minimal. And like you said, SMU had a huge opportunity to play in the ACC Championship and then potentially the CFP but they shit the bed. How hyped are they gonna be to play in the Holiday Bowl? GL whatever way you go 

Wildcats are the better team and SHOULD be favored by 2.5 on a neutral field.

I am LEANING to them as well...

 The line shift to SMU is cause for concern, and should give the seasoned capper reason to pause. I see nothing on injury reports or Opt-outs to account for this so it is likely some as yet UNannounced player(s) issue, and such unexplained line shifts always cause me to HOLD OFF until gametime to see what's up. 

There's no obligation to make a bet pre-game.  I'd much rather wait to be sure even if it means a tiny increase in LIVE BET juice on my pick...

BoL with your bets today 

@DickTracy

 But it did matter the day before yesterday when Miami went from +9.5 to +7.5 - Miami covered and won 

Iowa was +5.5 went to +3.5 covered any win straight up 

@Pho-20

I’m not saying it NEVER matters. I’m saying placing a bet (or changing your original bet) STRICTLY based on line movement isn’t the way to go. Use it as a tool for sure, but there are tons of games where it means absolutely nothing

I should have rephrased “fade the movement”. I really meant if you like a play as much as the OP said he did, then don’t let a line move be the ONLY reason you don’t bet the side you like. It’s obviously useful to look at moves, but you’ll get wrecked in the long term basing every bet you make on line movement 

@TheLorenaKid

 Cuz SMU beat Miami.  And Jennings will be healthy 

I look for the game to go over with both quarterbacks playing

@Motox11

 Perhaps passing yards prope.is the way to go? Can either QB throw for 300 tonight?

Line moving to smu more 

SMU  Pass D 284 pg. lost to cal, and Wake, rolled a bad BC team last 3 road..lol

Zona 16th rated defense.. 155 pass D vs +4.5 AOPR Sched last 3

Line move ? ..line manipualtion..its a scam, Zona rolls , Fafita gets loose 

They lost to Cal and Wake forest on the road..lol

@Wizerguy

 Means nada

Fuck the movement, I'm sticking with the Cats. Arizona is the more talented (and motivated) team in my opinion and playing their best ball of the season. Meanwhile, SMU lost to Cal with everything on the line and now they're relegated to the Holiday Bowl instead of potentially being in the CFP

It's super difficult to gauge the motivation for a lot of these players/teams in these random ass bowl games, but from everything I've read, this game is a lot more meaningful to Arizona (10 win season, etc). If they lose then it is what it is, but I'm not letting the line movement scare me off them. BOL 

-2.5 smu now you may be able to grab 3 by game time on zona

@noclue

Makes zero sense unless there are last second opt-outs. The only concern for me is that Action Network posted Arizona as one of their free picks and that entire operation is full of dogshit cappers. If "blb" or "Yelawolf" are on the Cats, I might have to buy out lol 

@Wizerguy

Yep. Same as ORE yesterday. Books trying to scare folks off of ARI. I'm hammering! 

#6 Whatley played for me in HS. he can be dynamic at times.
Means nothing to this thread, I just think it’s cool.

-3 smu now 

Top 3 DB's for AZ just opted out...

Oh wow

These games are a complete joke. Such a contrast from a few years ago. Shame

Absolute horseshit to wait this long to announce opt-outs