Perhaps you should actually research Hawaii's current situation and convey why you think they can win or even cover...Yes, Vandy is a bad team by SEC standards, yet, they are still a SEC Team...Please tell us why you think Hawaii would be decent...
@huskyfb40
I agree... betting on either team given the recent history and trends is dicey but Hawaii is a true variable here. I think the number is sticking at the moment because of the notion that "Hawaii plays well at home", but historically numbers ATS don't necessarily reflect that.
@finnryan22
You are 100% correct. However, I do my betting 99% based on in-season statistics. Each week, I run the statistics of the season up to date. Week 0 I do zero research. I just look for lines that have an opportunity.
What I wrote is literally the entire research and write up. NCAAF betting at its finest.
My take is that Hawaii has more or less an entirely new team and coaching staff. No matter how bad Vandy is as an SEC team they still are SEC.
Vandys secondary is a strength for them and I think they’ll control hawaiis passing game while really controlling both lines of scrimmage. Conversely Hawaiis secondary is about to struggle.
I like Vandy to flex here: 31-13
@PeAceMaKer7690
Tad more bit of information… Hawaii is losing their quarterback, every running back that ran for positive yardage, and five of their top six receivers which includes their top three. They have two returning starters on defense. And if we are thinking help could be on the way… Well, their last three recruiting classes were ranked 125, 127, and 119 so help is definitely not on the way. They did not get enough out of the transfer portal either. And to pour salt in the wound, Aloha Stadium was condemned and all of their games will be played at a practice facility which holds about 9000 people. I don’t see how it gets any worse for Hawaii. I think a division 3 school could go into Hawaii and pull a Win right now
This...
@LonghornHoosier
I have only 1 question and I mean this seriously. If Hawaii is so terrible, why is the line only 7? And to make things even more confusing, the line has moved down to Vandy -6.5?? If Hawaii is so terrible, why are some bettors apparently betting enough on Hawaii to move the line a full 1/2 point?
Here are the only possibilities I could think of
1. Vandy may have a host of injuries to starters that are not being reported to media
2. Vandy is so terrible that laying 7 points, even to Hawaii, is a bad bet.
3. Hawaii has managed to cobble together a roster of 2 and 3 star players that some may anticipate being more competitive than is generally believed.
4. Is the recent line movement on Hawaii an indicator of sharp money play on Hawaii?
I am NOT betting either side in this game but I am curious what members of this forum think about this game.
Based on Steele's preseason power rankings, the line was more like Vandy -2...Vanderbilt 102, Hawaii 97, with a 3.25 Home Field for Hawaii...I think the line has adjusted to Vanderbilt -6.5 or -7, if not from the opening line, the perception, based on the disarray of the Hawaii Program...I think the reason that the line is not moving, is because folks don't know for certain (and they will)how much Vanderbilt will improve in Year 2 under Clark Lea, who is coordinating a complete rebuild from his predecessor, versus a bad team with a new coach with no HC experience, new coordinators, 6 returning starters total, playing in a crappy venue, and a team that was gutted by the transfer portal in week 1, against the Harvard of the SEC, and not in the middle of the season against say Miss St...Sure, Hawaii got a 4 star transfer from Washington State at QB, but, he has no college playing experience...I think the sharps have decided, that based on all these circumstances, that Vandy does not deserve to be more than TD favorite against and @Hawaii...Just because the line has not moved up "recently", does not mean that the sharps think hapless Hawaii can cover, just that Vanderbilt should not be giving more than 6.5 or 7 points...I think Vanderbilt wins this game comfortably and covers...on the merits...I will be on Vanderbilt -6.5...
Looking over both, I see nothing that says to me Vanderbilt should be more but a 3 point fav, if that...lost to E.Tenn State l.y. beat a turrible UCONN team by 2 points, doubt if the made massive improvements over one season; as for Hawai'i they do get the benefits of questionable calls at home, and their talent level though not overwhelming is probably not that worse than Vandys so Ill take those points, my 2 cents.
I’m on vandy with this one…I also like the fact that they are already in Hawaii and will be there almost a full week…no jet lag, no getting adjusted to being in Hawaii, they should be ready to rock and roll in this one and show they have at least improved in the second year for their coach
Perhaps it's time to revisit the old standard game of "Fading the Covers Forum Consensus"
I count 6 posters who like Vandy (Dawg, LH, Finn, Husky, Phos, and Vol)
I count 2 posters who like Hawaii (PM, Wn)
6 to 2 is not enough of a consensus to make me fade Vandy and take Hawaii. Still a pass for me.
For those who care about such things, Pinnacle Sports just reduced the line on this game to Vanderbilt -6. I will leave it to the other posters here to figure out what that means.
If Vandy was a good bet at -7, then surely it must be an even better bet at Vandy -6. Am I correct here? What am I missing?
you are capping the game versus traditional Hawaii teams…this is 2 or 3 levels down from that…stay away if you wish..I know at times when I try to speculate on Sh!t versus Sh!t all you get is a Sh!tty outcome, one way or another. This game is the exception…Clark Lee is a good coach and it’s Vandy -6.5 or pass for me…
I perceive that you are being sarcastic…You are implying that the sharps are on the home team. I don’t that means that mych un week1..perhaps someone posted a pic on social media of some fore player trashed at a luaau. Can’t just got to the islands late yesterday. A half a point is not indicative of anything…now 2 would be another story…
@combato
@LonghornHoosier
If I truly thought there was sharp money on this game, I would be on Hawaii but I am not going to get involved here.
The purpose of that last post was to try to show how much sharper Pinnacle is than the other books. Never a good idea to fade Pinnacle which was my point.
But yeah, I guess it was kind of sarcastic. Sorry about that one.
@combato
I like your take. That is what is so great about Week 0. Everyone is looking to much into things and giving too much stock to the unknown. These teams are both ranked worst 20. The unknown accounts for way more than the known in this matchup. I always take the points and the underdog in this situation. Class recruitment score- that is hypothetical talent. Good coach. Hypothetical points. Only points are points. 11 vs 11.
I think this game can spiral out of control fast either way, and you can even see a big comeback. But the bulk of this game is not going to be within 6.5 points.
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