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Games for NCAAF Saturday 10/17....

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Covers Rehab
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Posted: #51
the only one i like is SC on your card. man people do like to wager on shitty ass team on saturday and it is usually not good.
 
Legend
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Posted: #52
UCF down to +13....
 
Wonder why....
 
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Legend
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Posted: #53

Quote Originally Posted by mogo:

thoughts on the big early match, ou/tx ???

Nothing....

Think the line is just about right.

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Prospect
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Posted: #54
vanzack,

I have always appreciated your insight and have been a long time reader of your threads, learning quite a bit over the years from you. I had a question though for you on your play on the Cincinnati ML -115 on Thursday night. . .

I, as I know you are, am big into the mathematics/probability behind sports betting and if I've understood correctly, you set a line and then bet it based on the number crossing certain thresholds. Being that the line was only Cinci -2, even if you see a bigger edge on the ML than you do on the pointspread, why lay -115 when playing Cinci -2 will result in laying significantly less juice when the pointspread statistically is unlikely to even matter? Especially on a point spread so small? I would have to assume that a line of 2 only comes into play very, very infrequently.

Thanks and GL today.


 
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Posted: #55
With all of the posts in this thread, I think Im liking vandy more and more....
 
There is always one game each week that everyone jumps on in my thread - and this week its vandy.
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Legend
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Smith19:

vanzack,

I have always appreciated your insight and have been a long time reader of your threads, learning quite a bit over the years from you. I had a question though for you on your play on the Cincinnati ML -115 on Thursday night. . .

I, as I know you are, am big into the mathematics/probability behind sports betting and if I've understood correctly, you set a line and then bet it based on the number crossing certain thresholds. Being that the line was only Cinci -2, even if you see a bigger edge on the ML than you do on the pointspread, why lay -115 when playing Cinci -2 will result in laying significantly less juice when the pointspread statistically is unlikely to even matter? Especially on a point spread so small? I would have to assume that a line of 2 only comes into play very, very infrequently.

Thanks and GL today.


At the time I bet it, I had a choice between -2 -102 or ML -115.

To go from -2 to a ML, 13 cents is cheap.

I would have bet the -2 if the ML was -123 or higher.

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Prospect
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Posted: #57
Got it, thank you.
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

With all of the posts in this thread, I think Im liking vandy more and more....
 
There is always one game each week that everyone jumps on in my thread - and this week its vandy.

Vandy probally is the play. Geogia is a hugh public pick. One of the biggest. GL

 
Prospect
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Posted: #59
 gotta roll wit c. mich
and ohio st.
 
Legend
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by BigPapa21:

Vandy probally is the play. Geogia is a hugh public pick. One of the biggest. GL

At least here on covers.

 

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Rookie
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

UCF down to +13....
 
Wonder why....
 

I got 14.  Got to grab it before you know who releases

 
Legend
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Posted: #62
UCF blew it.
 
Im going to be up a unit or so - but that game could have broken it open...
 
SMU better not blow it here in OT....
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Posted: #63
smu kicker missing that fg in OT was a blessing..sometimes your the bug ...sometimes your the windshield..good luck tomorrow
 
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Posted: #64
Yeah, SMU holds on....
 
So that is about an even day - up a few bucks.....
 
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Posted: #65
vanzack im curious ..how do you see my beloved vols matching up with the tide next week off the bye week? anything over a td is too much not to take for me in this rivalry but i am a tennessee homer..under anything over 43 is also worth a look IMO..toughts?
 
 
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Posted: #66
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