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FSU vs Miami breakdown

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Posted: #26
its off sportsbook too
 
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Posted: #27
Strange...

Darn you Graig Cooper! 
 
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Posted: #28
I see the line at 6.5.  I'm with most people here FSU Noles look much more dominating recently.  As with most games, this game will be won by turnovers and FSU seems to have the more steady hands.

I expect a bunch of penalties like normal with FSU winning outright as well.  I'll go out on a limb and say FSU 27 UM 21.  (I'll probably change my score prediction as the week goes along)

GL to all
 
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Posted: #29
FSU getting 7ish seems like a gift
 
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Posted: #30
Better question....which team has the most guys get arrested this week before the game?
 
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Posted: #31
Line is off at most books because Harris is doubtful..
 
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Posted: #32
Jacory Harris isn't playing Saturday.
 
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Posted: #33
Stopping reading after you mentioned Cooper.

Cooper is not a good running back and wont sniff the field even if healthy. It's the Berry/Miller/James show for this year.

Amazing how many people still mention Cooper when doing a write up of Miami games.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Kraze:

Jacory Harris isn't playing Saturday.



Torn labrum on non throwing shoulder. Doesnt mean he is out.
 
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Posted: #35
I hope he plays.. that way I can get a better line and more value on the ML..

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:

I hope he plays.. that way I can get a better line and more value on the ML..


I can only imagine he is worth at least 4 or 5 points to the line.  

I don't think they will re-release it until it is known whether or not he plays.

Wish I got more on FSU +7 last night when I could.  Now it looks like I'm going to probably go with the ML when it comes out because +7 was a very short lived gift.  

While some people doubt Harris including myself, having to start a new QB against FSU might be enough to drive the line down to close to a pick em or Miami as a small favorite (1-2.5)
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Mikado:


.  

While some people doubt Harris including myself, having to start a new QB against FSU might be enough to drive the line down to close to a pick em or Miami as a small favorite (1-2.5)

Gosh, if the line moves enough, maybe you might find some value on the Miami side.    If you care about that type of thing.  


 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by flying-squirrel:


Gosh, if the line moves enough, maybe you might find some value on the Miami side.    If you care about that type of thing.  



The game will be close if Harris plays, otherwise the Noles could win by 2 scores.  I highly doubt the backup QB's for the U have a deep playbook to work with.  

If Jacory Harris doesn't start it would take at least FSU -3.5 to make it a no play for me.

It makes no sense that Miami was 6-7 point favorites to begin with.  I feel the line is going to be down a couple of points regardless of if Harris' condition.


 
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Posted: #39
If Jacory Harris *does start*
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Mikado:



If Jacory Harris doesn't start it would take at least FSU -3.5 to make it a no play for me.




I appreciate the fact that you put a number out (FSU -3.5)!!!

 
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Posted: #41
Harris is going to play.
 
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Posted: #42
I'm with you, glad I jumped at +7 when it first came out.  small wager but i saw it dropping.  Didn't hear anything about the torn labrum or shoulder but that sounds like a big blow.  Although he does throw a bunch of balls up for grabs anyway.  FSU seems to be the play here.  Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by dhtakemoto:

I'm with you, glad I jumped at +7 when it first came out.  small wager but i saw it dropping.  Didn't hear anything about the torn labrum or shoulder but that sounds like a big blow.  Although he does throw a bunch of balls up for grabs anyway.  FSU seems to be the play here.  Thoughts?

Don't know enough about the Miami backup QB really to answer that.  In some of those rough games Jacory has been in the past, I'm surprised we haven't seen a little more from the backups... Even the Florida A&M game... weird.

FSU is definitely the play in my eyes.  While some may call me bias because I went to the university, It also means I know enough than the average bear about this Noles team.  The past few years I have made most of my money betting on/against FSU in football and basketball.

This is definitely the situation you wouldn't want to go against the Noles after what happened last year.  The defense is really coming along the past two weeks.  Granted their competition was UVA and WAKE, they are still ACC teams that can give teams trouble from time to time.  Ponder still is recovering from offseason surgery but is easily still one of the best QB's in the ACC.  Ponder also does a good job at running the ball and throwing on the run which keeps the defense on their feet.

With the exception of the Oklahoma game where they had the total mental collapse, they have been pretty strong on both sides of the ball.  
 
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Posted: #44
Miami could possibly win without Harris but they would need a phenomenal performance by whoever the backup is.  It is pretty clear Shannon doesn't have much confidence in the guys behind Jacory when he's been in plenty of situations that deserve a QB change and doesn't do it.

Miami has plenty of athletes, but FSU matches up very well with the speed of this team... especially with guys like Taiwan Easterling and Bert Reed who can make the moves to make guys miss.  

FSU has slightly more upperclassmen as starters and a better kicking (not punting) game.  However the stats for FSU kicking don't seem to matter when it comes to playing Miami with the amount of Wide Rights that seem to come out of these games.  Hopefully Hopkins won't be a shanker.

Good Luck
 
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Posted: #45
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Mikado:


Don't know enough about the Miami backup QB really to answer that.  In some of those rough games Jacory has been in the past, I'm surprised we haven't seen a little more from the backups... Even the Florida A&M game... weird.

FSU is definitely the play in my eyes.  While some may call me bias because I went to the university, It also means I know enough than the average bear about this Noles team.  The past few years I have made most of my money betting on/against FSU in football and basketball.

This is definitely the situation you wouldn't want to go against the Noles after what happened last year.  The defense is really coming along the past two weeks.  Granted their competition was UVA and WAKE, they are still ACC teams that can give teams trouble from time to time.  Ponder still is recovering from offseason surgery but is easily still one of the best QB's in the ACC.  Ponder also does a good job at running the ball and throwing on the run which keeps the defense on their feet.

With the exception of the Oklahoma game where they had the total mental collapse, they have been pretty strong on both sides of the ball.  

These are some good points to consider

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Insight:

These are some good points to consider


Exactly.  There is no sure thing when it comes to gambling.  

I want people to think for themselves, but also be informed without being coerced into believing something through persuasive language.

Thanks for the comment.
 
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Posted: #48
I agree.  It's unlikely the FSU ground game (which has been good compared to years past) will be able to get free and break away against similar athletes at Miami.  However, their big TE Beau Reliford (6' 6") will probably be in for a big day through the middle of that Cane defense.  We shall see what happens.  Definitely looking forward to the game.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by dhtakemoto:

I agree.  It's unlikely the FSU ground game (which has been good compared to years past) will be able to get free and break away against similar athletes at Miami.  However, their big TE Beau Reliford (6' 6") will probably be in for a big day through the middle of that Cane defense.  We shall see what happens.  Definitely looking forward to the game.

I doubt we will see 6, 7 yards per carry from either side.  Both have very superior defenses for the ACC.  The mobility and experience of Ponder is very important because it will keep the Miami defense on their feet.  He won't run on them like Terrell Pryor did but he is a much more prolific passer than he is. 

Don't forget... FSU has won the last 2 times in Coral Gables by 2 and 3 points and Miami has won the past 2 in Tallahassee by 4 and 8 points.   This game does not warrant a TD spread at all regardless of the statistics.

I've said it before the biggest threat to the Noles this game is their secondary.  With guys like Hankerson, Benjamin, and Cooper, they can make some huge plays if Jacory can get the ball to them.  They aren't the biggest guys, but they are quick.  FSU showed how weak their secondary can be against OU.  But they have easily redeemed themselves over the past couple of weeks coming into conference play.  

Another thing that is going to be a huge factor is penalties and turnovers.  FSU should have the advantage when it comes to this, but both teams are highly penalized.  This could cost some drives and stop them short.  I don't think it will be as high scoring as last year's game that happened to start the season.
 
 
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Posted: #50

Quote Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:

I'm hoping more people saw the final score at the Miami game and just assume UM rolled the Tigers..

Hopefully that and the home field advantage will drive this line up..

Why so worried about getting more points if FSU win straight up?

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