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FSU against the run/defense in general...

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Posted: #1

Pretty divided forum on this game tonight...should be a good one to watch.

Shocked that this line keeps going up, will sprinkle more on Auburn ML later tonight.

Here is what I find interesting, which I dont understand people for backing FSU....

FSU offense is very good, no reason to even bring that up.  But, they faced no good defenses with 0 pass rush in almost every game they played.

 

However, I think the FSU defense is VERY overrated.  Here is why:

First, FSU played ZERO teams in the top 10 in overall offense this year.  Clemson ranked 13th this year and the next best was Miami which ranks 43rd......pretty pathetic.

But, what makes me believe Aub will have no problem scoring is FSU against the run.  Here are the breakdowns of teams running the ball against FSU this year, taking away the sacks.  After the runs in the game, I have included the rushing rank for that team in college football.

Pitt 22 rushes 123 yds 5.6 ave     ranked 102nd in nation

BC 36 rushes 196 yds 5.4 ave     ranked 23rd in nation

Mary 14 rushes 16 yds

Clem 27 rushes 115yds 4.3 ave   ranked 52 in nation

Nc St  31 rushes 129 yds 4.2 ave ranked 75th in nation

Miami 26 rushes 101 yds 3.9 ave

Wake 36 rushes 109 yds 3.1 ave

Cuse 43 rushes 157 yds 3.7 ave   ranked 37 in nation

Flor 18 rushes 83 yds   4.6 ave

Duke 28 rushes for 104 3.7 ave

 

Teams really had no issue what so ever running the ball on this team. 

Now you have an Auburn team that is coming off 52 for 296 against Bama and 74 for 545 against Mizzu and the best running game.

Auburn is going to run the ball 50+ times....FSU has stopped the run against only Maryland, Wake and Miami this year.  Every other team had no issue running the ball at all. 

I just feel this FSU defense is very very overrated, as they have played 1 decent offense all year

 
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Posted: #2
agree 100% i was checking those numbers last night, definitely on Auburn. GL  
 
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Posted: #3
Some FSU backer just posted that 950 rushing yards that FSU has given up was when they were up by 15+ points 

Very creative, those FSU backers are 
 
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Posted: #4
U guys are on crack. FSU will hold Auburn to under 21 points. They might get to 21 points in garbage time. Lets just see...

Noles Roll 48-17
 
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Posted: #5
fsu defense is loaded with nfl quality talent
 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by vegasslim:

fsu defense is loaded with nfl quality talent

 

When they are playing ACC offenses every week, correct

They played 1 team in the top 43 in offense

 
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Posted: #7
I see where you're going with those numbers and it does make a point as to how good the FSU run defense is, but you have to remember that gaining 100 yards rushing in a game isn't that big of a deal anymore.  All but 9 FBS teams averaged over 100 rush ypg.  

Here are teams averages for the year vs. your numbers 

Pitt avg. 114 ypg   123 vs FSU 
BC avg.  218    196 vs. FSU
Mary avg. 144   16 vs. FSU
Clemson avg. 173  115 vs. FSU
NC State  avg. 162  129 vs. FSU
Miami avg. 172    101 vs. FSU
Wake  avg 94   109 vs. FSU   *28-0 after 1 quarter
Syracuse  avg. 194     157 vs. FSU
Florida  avg. 145    83 vs. FSU
Duke  avg. 173    104 vs. FSU


They held every team under the adjusted average except for Wake in a game that was out of hand 10 minutes in.  

Now Auburn is the best at what they do, but I don't think they are going to get 300 yards on the ground.  The question is, can Auburn pass enough to catch up from a double digit deficit?

Good luck with your plays   

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

When they are playing ACC offenses every week, correct

They played 1 team in the top 43 in offense


they have played who was on the schedule and spanked each and every one that continues tonight
 
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Posted: #9
Missed Pitt above....  another blowout game though.  
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

I see where you're going with those numbers and it does make a point as to how good the FSU run defense is, but you have to remember that gaining 100 yards rushing in a game isn't that big of a deal anymore.  All but 9 FBS teams averaged over 100 rush ypg.  

Here are teams averages for the year vs. your numbers 

Pitt avg. 114 ypg   123 vs FSU 
BC avg.  218    196 vs. FSU
Mary avg. 144   16 vs. FSU
Clemson avg. 173  115 vs. FSU
NC State  avg. 162  129 vs. FSU
Miami avg. 172    101 vs. FSU
Wake  avg 94   109 vs. FSU   *28-0 after 1 quarter
Syracuse  avg. 194     157 vs. FSU
Florida  avg. 145    83 vs. FSU
Duke  avg. 173    104 vs. FSU


They held every team under the adjusted average except for Wake in a game that was out of hand 10 minutes in.  

Now Auburn is the best at what they do, but I don't think they are going to get 300 yards on the ground.  The question is, can Auburn pass enough to catch up from a double digit deficit?

Good luck with your plays   

 

Good post

However, and I am not going to take the time to look it up....I am willing to guess those teams all rushed the ball fewer times in the game because they were throwing trying to catch up

Auburn will not abandon the run game even if they get down....Aub will run the ball from start to finish unlike all those teams

 
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Posted: #11
These stats are from garbage time.... Use your brain!
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

Good post

However, and I am not going to take the time to look it up....I am willing to guess those teams all rushed the ball fewer times in the game because they were throwing trying to catch up

Auburn will not abandon the run game even if they get down....Aub will run the ball from start to finish unlike all those teams


they cant abandon the run because they dont pass the ball very well at all
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Sharperthanu92:

These stats are from garbage time.... Use your brain!

 You think teams run and run in garbage time?? when LOSING??
 
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Posted: #14
You can take those rushing stats and toss them in the trashcan since many of those yards came when florida state was up by 30.....
 
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Posted: #15
You are correct... I have actually done an even more thorough breakdown of FSU's defense than what you did... 


As far as I am concerned, the key to successfully capping this game is to understand that FSU DOES NOT have the #3 defense in college football, or even close to it!
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by XLR8:

U guys are on crack. FSU will hold Auburn to under 21 points. 



Just the fact that you can make a prediction that is that terrible is enough for me to know that you can't possibly have the first clue about college football!


Auburn will have 21 by halftime!
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

 

They held every team under the adjusted average except for Wake in a game that was out of hand 10 minutes in.  


Read what you just posted there!  Do you remember another team that Auburn played recently, who had previously held every single opponent under their rushing average?

Remember?

It was Missouri!  And they got ripped to shreds for almost 600 yards rushing!



I know this much... ANYBODY who thinks FSU is going to contain Auburn's running game, should not be giving out advice on this game, because there is no chance in hell that will happen!
 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:

You can take those rushing stats and toss them in the trashcan since many of those yards came when florida state was up by 30.....

 

Do people just assume this???

I looked up just 3 of the game I listed....

Pitt ran the ball 1 time in the 4th qtr...

Clemson had 14 rushes for 49 yds in the 4th qtr, meaning they had 13 for 65 prior...

Nc St had 14 rushes for 27 yds in the 4th qtr...

Those were just the first three I picked, and not one of those games did the team rush for alot of yards, or more than their game ave in the 4th qtr

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Eagle-Eye:



Read what you just posted there!  Do you remember another team that Auburn played recently, who had previously held every single opponent under their rushing average?

Remember?

It was Missouri!  And they got ripped to shreds for almost 600 yards rushing!



I know this much... ANYBODY who thinks FSU is going to contain Auburn's running game, should not be giving out advice on this game, because there is no chance in hell that will happen!

If FSU plays a 3-man line like Missouri did they deserve to get beat.  
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

Do people just assume this???

I looked up just 3 of the game I listed....

Pitt ran the ball 1 time in the 4th qtr...

Clemson had 14 rushes for 49 yds in the 4th qtr, meaning they had 13 for 65 prior...

Nc St had 14 rushes for 27 yds in the 4th qtr...

Those were just the first three I picked, and not one of those games did the team rush for alot of yards, or more than their game ave in the 4th qtr


I am always hesitant to believe people who use stats from 25% of the available data. Am I to assume that you choose those 3 games at random to look up? You are only posting those games for a reason. 
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by sean2114:


I am always hesitant to believe people who use stats from 25% of the available data. Am I to assume that you choose those 3 games at random to look up? You are only posting those games for a reason. 

 

Actually, I picked those 3 games because those were the three teams, besides BC who had the most success.  BC was close in the 2nd half, so that game cant be counted.

Fact is, may people on this site claim FSU ONLY gave up big rushing numbers when the game didnt matter.

If you break down the 4 games teams rushed the best...their rushing stats were the worst in the 4th qtr

Meaning teams didnt rack up their great rushing numbers when the game was already over

 
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Posted: #22
I'm making a play on Auburn +9

If your taking FSU you're essentially betting on it being a blow out.

But nobody has really blown out Auburn, or even gotten up over a TD over them since the LSU game.

Auburn has faced way way more mobile QB's than Winston, including Johnny Football.

But the stats that jump out at me the most.

If you look up Alabama's run defense before and after the Auburn game.

Same with Mizzou. Look up their run defense before and after the Auburn game.

I believe in the case of Mizzou they were ranked 2nd before and 9th after.

And I absolutely believe Auburn has the better coach. The long time off benefits the better coached team.

If FSU wins, it would shock me if it were by more than a TD.


 
 
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Posted: #23

Wookie

Auburn has had bad D numbers this year, but their 3rd down and Red Zone D is very good, and their red zone offense is great as well...

Plus, they have the special team advantage....

I dont see either team scoring less than 30....and Auburn has a great chance to win SU

I think after this game people will realize why SOS during the year is so important...

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