Freak Pics!!! (Week 2)

Betting Strategy:

I realize this is repetitive for many, but there’s always new people coming into my threads so I will take a minute to decipher how I grade my plays, and how I wager them.  These are the values attached to my various wagers.

Regular Bet – 1 Uint

Best Bet – 5 Units

Max Bet – 20 Units

Underdog Moneyline (UDML) - .5 Unit

When I list my wagers in a certain time slot, I do so in the order that I like them.  For example, last Thursday night the Tulsa/Bowling Green OVER wager was listed last among my 4 posted plays.  That means of the 4 posted plays, that was my least favorite.

Under the “Saturday Evening” wagers, I had the Georgia/Clemson 1st half UNDER listed last in that time slot.  That means that was my least favorite wager in that time slot.

I do a 5-unit straight bet wager on my “Best Bets,” and then use my regular bets as parlay fillers.  So if I list one “Best Bet” and two “Regular Bets” under the “Saturday Early Games” time slot, then I will have 5 units on the “Best Bet,” and 1 unit on most likely a 3-team parlay with my “Best Bet” and my two regular plays.  I may do a 1-unit, 3-team parlay, or I may do two 1-unit 2-team parlays with each “Regular Bet” and the “Best Bet.”  I also usually do a 1-unit parlay with all of my Saturday “Best” and “Max Bets” games.  The point is, if I hit my “Best” and “Max Bets” like I did this week, then I will have huge week.

If I have a single “Regular Bet” on weeknight with no accompanying “Best Bet,” then I will play that as a single bet for either 1-unit or 3-units.  I’ll try to remember to post what I’m doing.

Furthermore, aside from winning on my “Best” and “Max Bets,” I usually also hit a parlay or two each week, so obviously that adds big-time to the bottom line if I’m able to do that.  This week I hit two – a 2-teamer and a 3-teamer.

Conversely, if I go 14-0 on “Regular Bets” and 0 & 4 on “Best” and “Max Bets,” then I lost my azz.

I’m a firm believer that the more games you bet, the bigger the advantage for the book.  So as you can see, I’m really only betting about 5 games or so a week.  This is usually a very successful strategy for me because I rarely hit under 50% of my “Best” and “Max Bets.”

I know a lot of people believe in betting the same unit amount for every play, and that might be a wise strategy for other sports, but I don’t like it for football.  For example, had I bet 1 unit of all 19 of my posted wagers this week (10-9), then would have made a profit of 1/10th of a unit assuming a 10% vig on the 9 losers.  Instead, I ended up about 35 units or so by using my graded wager strategy.  I’m not telling you how to “wager” your money, but I’m telling what I do, and it’s been very successful for me.

Obviously I try to post as many winners as I can each week based on my research, knowledge and experience, but I don’t possess  a “Back to the Futures” sports almanac.  I absolutely will post some losers, and I have to take responsibility for my losses.  But what I can’t do is take responsibility for yours.  My goal is to do what I did a couple of years ago, and end every single week in the black.  So far this season I’m 1 for 1 in that regard.

A word on 1st half UNDERS:

As many of you know, this has been a very successful strategy for me in the past – particularly early in the season.  Obviously this season that strategy was a colossal failure as I went  2 & 5 on those wagers this week – one of which was a “Best Bet” loser.  What we are seeing in college football is that freshmen – particularly QBs – are entering college much more prepared than ever to play at a high level right out of the gate.  See Jameis Winston.  That coupled with the fact that so many more teams are running so many more plays per game because of the “hurry-up no huddle” approach, that it appears to have outdated this strategy to some degree.

Scoring this week also seem to be heavily weighted toward the 1st half, so the better strategy may be to look for 2nd half UNDER opportunities, or just bet game UNDERS instead.  I’ll try to keep an eye on it, but in the meantime I will scale way back on the 1st half UNDERS for the time being.

Alabama vs. Texas A&M and Virginia Tech Recap:

Much of what I’m going to tell you is not my opinion – it is fact.  And if you doubt me, go back carefully review the game as I have done.  The reason I am posting a post-game write-up is so people can understand what they saw on Saturday and why they saw it.  I’m also doing it because I announced prior to the season that I intended to “Max Bet” the Texas A&M game, so I think an explanation of why I am sticking to that strategy in the wake of the Virginia Tech game is in order.

First off I want to remind people that Virginia Tech is my second favorite college football team.  I’ve had many friends and family members graduate from that school, and I’ve spent quite a bit of time in Blacksburg over the years.  I say that because this game could not have been a more perfect result for me personally.  Alabama won and covered the 1st half and game lines, and Virginia Tech acquitted themselves very well on national tv.  And because of that, they should have a lot of confidence going forward, and hopefully that confidence will blossom into a very successful season for the Hokies.

I have posted about Alabama’s offensive line on several occasions, but I think a brief review is in order, particularly in light of what we saw in the Virginia Tech game.  We all know that Alabama is replacing 3 linemen who are now on NFL rosters.  I have explained in the past that the 3 replacements are all “individually” experienced and talented guys.  But offensive lines are not plug and play.  Offensive lines are more about continuity and on-the-field leadership than talent, and Alabama is lacking in both at this early point in the season.   That said, I’m sure most reading this have forgotten that people were pressing the panic button on last year’s o-line after the second week of the season when they surrendered 7 sacks in the Western Kentucky game.  The following week Alabama trounced Arkansas 52-0.

Going into the Virginia Tech game, I knew Tech had one of the best defensive lines in the country, and that they would test Alabama’s nascent offensive line.  That was clearly Tech’s best matchup on the field, and to their credit, they took full advantage.  Yes, Alabama missed some blocking assignments as I knew they would, but they weren’t alone.  The running backs and tight ends did as well.

Right now the biggest thing that Alabama is suffering from is the loss of tight end Michael Williams.  As of now Alabama really don’t have a replacement that they are happy with in terms of blocking in the run game.  The bottom line is this is not last year’s team, and I have said it many times and so has Saban, this will be a different looking offense this year.  They’ll run off tackle more, and between the tackles less – at least early in the season.  But most importantly Alabama will run more of a west coast type of an offense to take advantage of the plethora of playmakers on the roster.  We saw one of those playmakers score 3 touchdowns against Virginia Tech, but Alabama has a lot more playmakers than just Amari Cooper and Christian Jones.

I can tell you that this new-look offense is very explosive, because I’ve seen it in action several times in the spring and fall.  What the public saw in Alabama’s spring game is in stark contrast to what was happening in practice behind the scenes.  The offense was absolutely raping the defense, but when the cameras were on, Saban intentionally handicapped the offense by limiting them to variations of about 6 offensive plays.  So if you watched the spring game, you probably came away with the impression the offense was really struggling.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.

 For example, in two private scrimmages, Amari Cooper had 9 catches for 228 yards and 5 touchdowns – and that was in very limited action.  Others such as McCarron also accumulated gaudy stats.  In one of the scrimmages McCarron went 23 for 29 for 319 yards and 5 touchdowns.  He had no interceptions.

Now that last scrimmage I attended, the defense caught up quite a bit and really held their own, particularly the in the secondary.  In case you don’t know, Alabama’s secondary is very, very good.
My point is that despite what you saw in the Virginia Tech game – and I will get into that in a bit – I stand by my prediction that this will be the most explosive offenses in Alabama’s history.

Now let me remind readers of the of the 2008 SEC Championship game when Florida beat Alabama 31-20.  The entire offseason was dedicated by coaches and players alike to beating Florida, and Florida wasn’t even on their schedule.  The result was that Alabama did end up facing the Gators again in the SEC Championship game, and completely dominated them.  The exact same thing has happened this offseason, except I would say the Texas A&M preparations have been even more intense than they were for Florida in 2009.  Everything Alabama has done, and is doing is in preparation for that game.  You really need to understand that if you want to get on the right side of this game.

Now on to the Virginia Tech game itself . . . finally huh???

First of all, I will tell you that I knew going into the Virginia Tech game that Alabama would be somewhat vanilla offensively, but I thought that vanilla would be more than enough to cover the spread.  One of the main reasons I thought that is because I really didn’t think Virginia Tech’s offense could score a touchdown against Alabama’s defense.  Ultimately they did score a flukish touchdown, but thankfully it didn’t burn Alabama backers.

It really hit me in the second half of the game when I really needed a score to cover the game line.  I was getting pissed because I noticed that Alabama was not really trying to counter anything Virginia Tech was doing defensively.  Tech was basically playing the 1985 Buddy Ryan 46 defense which simply brings more defenders that the offense line can block.  Alabama has the personnel to easily counter this defense but never tried to implement it.  For example, one way to counter it is to spread the field with 4 wide receivers to force the defensive personnel out of the box.  Even the announcer Matt Millen wondered out loud on several occasion as to why Alabama kept insisting on running directly into the teeth of an 8 and 9-man box.

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Much like what occurred in the spring game where Saban intentionally handicapped the offense, apparently he did much the same in this game.  That is no way meant to take away from the great game that Virginia tech played, but this is the simple fact of the matter, and it can be verified by re-watching the game.

Now what I’m going to tell you comes from someone directly affiliated with the program, and I think I can comfortably say what I’m about to say.  I asked him about this specifically on Monday and this is basically what he told me.  He said that the coaching staff started planning for the Texas A&M game even before they left the stadium last season.  As I said earlier, everything Alabama has done in the off-season has been geared toward the Texas A&M game - and now that includes the 1st game of the season as well.  He said the plan was to be as bland offensively as possible.  The coaching staff was given absolutely the best gift they could have asked for when the defense and special teams combined to score 3 touchdowns.  That allowed them to scale the offense back even more than originally planned.  He said the offense was scaled back to more than being vanilla.  It was scaled back to a “practice game type game plan.”  Those were his exact words.  He said the staff has not shown any of its hand for the A&M game including personnel packages and blocking schemes.

Another person I spoke with yesterday, who is friends with one of the offensive linemen’s parents, said he knew in advance (through his son) that all Alabama was going to do was straight ahead blocking.  No pulling guards or tackles, no zone blocking schemes etc.

That gave me a lot to look for when I reviewed that game in depth, and as I said, what those two sources said can be easily confirmed by re-watching the game.  You will noticed that AJ McCarron never audibled one time during the game.  No linemen ever pulled.  I only saw one play in the whole game where a receiver even went in motion.  The offense was simplistic to the point of being comical.

Now ask yourself a question.  Do you really believe that Alabama would line up over and over again against an 8 and 9-man front and not check out of a play that had zero chance to succeed under normal circumstances?  And although the line had some continuity issues, mostly what I saw was Alabama simply being outmanned at the point of attack.  In other words, Virginia Tech was simply bringing more than Alabama could block.  Most of the time Tech was bringing an extra guy off of the edge.

There is really only two ways to look at the Virginia Tech game IMO.  Either this was one of Saban’s most brilliant coaching jobs, or one of his worst.  I believe it was the former because it was effective in two ways.  First, as I already mentioned, they have shown Texas A&M absolutely nothing on tape, and secondly, I think this game went a long way to knocking the “defending national champion chip” off of the players’ shoulders.  It showed the guys – particularly the younger ones - that they are not invincible.  I will point out another thing that struck me as odd.  Though all the offensive adversity, Saban remained as calm as a millpond on the sideline.

I readily admit that if I knew what I know now, I would not have “Max Bet” the Virginia Tech game, and that really has nothing to do with how I capped the game.  I think I had the game capped very well.  Nevertheless, fortunately it did not blow up in my face, and I was still able to cash my Alabama tickets.

I’m sure there will be posters who will conjure up a myriad of counter arguments to what I’ve posted here, but quite honestly I’m not interested in arguing the point.  I’m telling you what’s up.  I’m telling this game will be a blow out in favor of Alabama.  You can believe me and join me in betting Alabama, or you can think I’m full of it and back Texas A&M – or stay away altogether.  Just know I really don’t care what you do.  As for me, it’ll be my biggest bet of the season.

Peace out!!!

 Now that is a very nice write up!! Thank you for all the time and effort FREAK!!! Can't wait to get your picks for this week.

Better keep this link on your clipboard. You'll probably have to reference about 300 posters to it....ha. Great write up. I noticed that Vama O looked like the old line them up and outmuscle them type of offense. Anyone who knows Saban knows that's not how he plays the game. He gameplans around his weapons. Anxious for the A&M spread to come out. BOL this week I'm laying some chalk but with Oregon and Baylor playing there's always chalk.

I will go ahead and post my weeknight plays, and I actually like quite a few of them.  I really like Central Florida a lot.  The only thing that prevents me from making this a "Best Bet" is that it is technically a road game for UCF.  I am confident enough to make it a 3-unit "Regular Bet" however.  I will put 1-unit on all of the other weeknight plays.

Thursday Night Game:

Florida Atlantic @ East Carolina OVER 54

Friday Night Games:

Central Florida -24 (Hook) @ Florida International

Wake Forest @ Boston College UNDER 48.5

Wake Forest +3 @ Boston College

Wake Forest UDML +130 @ Boston College

With u on Wake and ECUFAU over. I took the ml on Wake tho. 

Correction above.  I bet a half of a unit on the Wake Forest ML, not 1-unit.  I'm not really counting units for the benefit of the board anyhow, but I thought I would make the correction anyhow.

I also forgot to post my record from last week and my year-to-date, which of course are one and the same this week.

Last Week's Results & Year-to-date Record:

Regular Bets:  6-8
Best Bets:  3-1
Max Bets:  1-0
UDMLs:  0-0

With you on every single play so far.. Like em all.. Lets get it this week..

Ur thoughts on Texas -7 vs BYU?? Leaning Texas a lot.

I'm on the Wake moneyline as well.

Texas is on my card.

I got Tex at -6. I think they r a little undervalued here. Getting lots of pub for passing on Winston tho...ha.

Like the picks, jimmy. I am with you on each of those.

Re: the Alabama analysis and game-plan vs. VT, I agree with the vast majority of your evaluation above and will be looking to make a hefty profit on the TAMU game next weekend. The main concern I have is the actual blocking, man-for-man, of Bama's individual players. I am with you that Saban schemes to put his players in the very best situations to succeed, but I saw several straight-up missed blocks Saturday by the OL (Kouandjio) and others (Yeldon). Even with the vanilla scheme, you know Saban wanted them to block MUCH better than what they showed. Now the question is, was it just one of those games, or do they really struggle with the fundamentals? That will certainly be answered in due time. But jimmy, like you, I was expecting to see more dominating individual performances on the OL. You even stated last week that you thought they would be better than last year's unit.

Btw, what do you now see the Bama-TAMU line after last week? Again, love the early week plays and I look forward to meeting you at the cash window  

I really like your card so far jimmy can't wait to see your Saturday plays. 

I was not at all expecting a dominating performance out of the offensive line.  I said that Virginia Tech has one of the best defensive lines in the country, and that I expected the o-line to be tested, and make some mistakes.  That said, you don't necessarily need a dominating performance out of the offensive line to score points, although it certainly helps.

I also have NEVER said that this year's offensive line will be better than last year's version.  I said quite the opposite.  I have said, however, that I think Ryan Kelly will ultimately prove to be an improvement over Barrett Jones at center, and that the line will end up being one of the best offensive lines in the country by season's end.  Both have a long way to go to meet those expectations.

I think the line will open slightly under 10.  I know I will get what I can on it when it opens on Sunday afternoon.

Wake

jimmy - 

I agree, and you are correct about your original assessment of Bama's OL. Definitely with you on the Bama-TAMU opening line. I know exactly what my plans will be from roughly 2pm until 4pm this Sunday afternoon.

JIMMY, great analysis and I am with you on the ECU OVER, I think ECU hits 40 plus themselves, a d their D is no prize

What's your take on the Wake Forest game? I've done some analysis and from what I've gathered the QBs are pretty much even; defense definitely goes to Wake Forest; offense goes to Wake Forest slightly with their all ACC receiver; special teams is heavily in BC' advantage, Wake Forest fg kicker missed twice last week at home. With all that being said Wake is awful on the road in ACC competition.

Although the way you allocate you're money on wagers is unique, it is in fact very very smart. Right away you eliminate 10% of your losses bc of not paying vig. From there, even a 1-1 split creates a +1.6 net for you (on a 1unit wager). Very impressive. 

Great write-up Jimmy!  Thanks for all the work you do.  

New guy on these forums. I booked ECU over last night, and really leaning on Texas. I think Texas will be a good game to parlay with as well.