Seems like this is more of a "shut up and win" type forum. I'll keep my deep dive talk to the real CFB sicko's like myself who want to engage in discussions.
Softer slate this week, but don't sleep on:
Arizona @ BYU / Mississippi State @ Minnesota / UCF @ Pitt / UTSA @ Texas State / Memphis @ Boise State
Will have qualifiers mid week and lay out the plays from there.
Since there's not a lot on the card for me this week let me break down a few:
No better place to start than Austin where we will get our first real game of the year. Ohio State has had Texas number the last 2 meetings but it's not really by the margin that most would think. Texas' defense has played extremely well in both meetings. The Longhorns defense has only allowed 21 and 14 points, which would make one think that Steve Sarkisian might be losing his fastball as a playcaller. Texas has a very slight overall talent advantage. We know that both teams are extremely talented as both have NFL talent on every level as well as both sides of the ball. If you don't know the matchup already then I'm not sure how you ended up here reading this. Arch, Julian, Smoothers and Brown, Jackson & Jackson (This has to be a law firm name already, right?), Coleman and Wingo, Smith and McCuin, Muschamp, and Patricia. This one comes down to will Sarkisian get the mojo back? The talent is there in Austin, they made the roster moves to eliminate any talent deficiencies that they had a year ago. They made a change at defensive coordinator to bring in Will Muschamp to have a DC who took more command of that side of the ball to allow Sarkisian to focus more on the offensive side of the ball. There are ZERO excuses left for why Texas comes up short than Steve Sarkisian himself. My brain says that they should be able to win this game by 7-10 but somehow unless their name is Texas A&M or Oklahoma, Sark's teams have shit the bed in recent years in the biggest games. Ohio State and Georgia in 2025, Ohio State, Georgia (twice) and almost Arizona State in 2024, Washington in 2023. Can Texas get over the hump? I need to see it first before I back them with my money.
"Michigan is trash! Bryce Underwood is going to be a great car salesman in two years!"
There is a LOT of kneejerk reactions to Michigan's "Bail Mary" win over Western Michigan. Did everyone forget the debacle of Sherrone Moore that happened back in December? Kyle Whittingham came in to navigate very rough waters in Ann Arbor. Week 1 with a new coaching staff typically doesn't look clean (Yes there are examples of it happening. The average overall is low). I have a hard time seeing a game here where Michigan comes out looking just like they did against Western Michigan. Oklahoma won this matchup last season in Norman where John Mateer thrived by creating with his legs buying time for WR's or picking up first downs escaping the pocket. Whittingham and the Wolverines need to have an answer for that this year for Mateer and Oklahoma's OL is dealing with some injuries. There is still a very good reason why this line is Oklahoma -5 on Thursday night. Saying all of that, you can't talk about a Brent Venables team without mentioning how many problems that his defenses have created for opposing offenses over the last 20 years. He challenges the QB's eyes, he brings pressure, and they tackle very well. How can you limit them from running free? QB run. Underwood can create with his feet, he can make a guy miss him in a phone booth which would mean there is a section of the field open for a WR or an open running lane that Bryce can take advantage of. Can they do that and make a fool of all of the sellers of Michigan this early in the season? I think we will know by the 2nd quarter. Either Michigan does look like a different team that slept walked through a team they didn't take seriously or Underwood turns the ball over and potentially gets pulled for a QB who will protect the football and then Venables defense will pin their ears back and trust more mistakes will come from the Wolverines. Also have to be aware in this one, Mateer on the road has not been as strong as Mateer when he plays at home.
The numbers I have see this one as Oklahoma -4.3, so I do lean Oklahoma getting it done, but expect Michigan to give the Sooners a challenge.
I do think Arizona State can give Texas A&M a run for their money early in this matchup. The Sun Devils have good size at WR. QB Cutter Boley had a good showing in week one where it looked like he has adapted well to the new offense very quickly. Big step up in competition but this kid did start as a Freshman in the SEC last season so I don't believe Kyle Field will be too big for him. This game has all the potential in the world for a sleepy first half for the Aggies. Kenny Dillingham does a great job of having his team focus on themselves and not take in a bunch of outside noise. I believe they show up Saturday morning and bring a fight with them. The Aggies simply outman the Sun Devils at every level so over 4 quarters I have a hard time seeing a nail-biter late. This seems like a classic close at half game that you then you look up in the middle of the 4th quarter and it's a 3 score game. My numbers have A&M -14.95, so no edge for my money.
"Mateer on the road has not been as strong as Mateer when he plays at home." Michigan 
Arizona State/A&M "This seems like a classic close at half game that you then you look up in the middle of the 4th quarter and it's a 3 score game" 
Busy week cut my time for more thoughts on games but feeling like I have a pretty good read on a lot of teams right now.
The Ted Cruz Curse against Texas sports teams is a tough pill to swallow after seeing him on Gameday this morning. Might have to take Ohio State just for that along but will likely sit out as I would love to see Texas take that next step into true title contender status.
There is so much you can sort through in the details but if Ohio State didn't miss that FG we are talking about how Ohio State went into Texas and dominated Texas again in either a 26-24 or even 26-17 Buckeyes victory. Sark's gameplan of getting east and west to set up shots work against clearly inferior teams but Ohio State and Georgia have proven consistently over the last 3 years that it doesn't work against the best of the best. I came away thinking Ohio State got worn down in the 4th by the heat. Arch looked to be shocked early with the two Texas turnovers in their first 5 plays including the video game glitch INT which was almost a 45 yard explosive pass that would have put the Horns in the redzone. Ohio State looked like they played too conservatively on offense in the 2nd half and that put the Buckeyes defense on the field for 40 plays over the last 17 minutes of the game where it looks like they gassed out.
Ryan Day's biggest mistake of the night was not letting Texas score the TD on 1st and goal. He would have saved his final timeout. There would have been one minute left in the game. They would have still only needed a FG to take the lead back.
Texas played their C- game (lost the turnover battle and were outgained in yardage) and somehow found a win. Ohio State played their B- game, and their coaching failed them. I knock Ohio State slightly but this is very much still a Top 5 team in the country. Texas showed they are still very inconsistent but are very difficult to kill.
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