FCS - Pick and Why

I only mess around with FCS games for the most part during semifinal or the championship game.    Let's look at some numbers:

Illst                40  XX  91  141  

-9   Mon st   17   13   44   150   

Mon st opened at -9 currently -10.5 (madduxsports.com)  .    Mon st is better in Total off at 17 vs 40   better in Total def at 13 vs xx as Ill st def is at least 501 or more - can't find the exact rank; Mon st is better in Sagarin rank at 91 vs 44; the only category where Ill st is slightly better is Sched strength at 141 vs 150.    

The game is on a neutral field - so when i look up bowl games - the only situation I can kinda hang my hat on is when Ohio played App st. a bunch of years ago - final score of that game 29-31   .   

Small play on Illinois state for my fellow Degenerates:)    

Good luck all.   

not 501 but 51 or higher

@TheBuddah

 Great call Buddah! What a comeback by Illinois State! 

@CanadaCup

 Thanks bud - glad it worked out.   Great comeback - glad they covered.   On to the big games.   

@D-Town

 thanks bud.