Went over 7800 characters, so I'm cutting some of the analysis.
Season: 34-18-2
Last Wk: 8-5-1
College: 21-9-2
Last Wk: 5-2-1
Of the minimum 12 games a week I have to make, as per the bet, in my quest for 55%, many, many more will be college games going forward. 13-9 in NFL, 21-9-2 in college. Program works far better in college. Welcome back to all the rereaders. If you're new, feel free to read back and you'll understand far more with the scenario, the program, and the anacronyms. Nickel version: I work with gamblers. We made a bet I'd hit 55% in my first season handicapping games by formulating a computer program. So here we are. One last note before we go on to the games: I'm on the other side of many of the "sharps" plays... On to the games... This week: 1-0, YEA NEBRASKA!
ALABAMA -6 1/2
My buddies say Spurrier is an offensive genius. Yet his OFLUIDR is 54.1 over the last 5 years. They say he is the dog cover king, yet there are 7 coaches in the SEC with better dog cover percentages than him. NOTE: Bobby Petrino is the dog cover king by the numbers. They say his defenses are the best at reading keys, a product of the coaches he surrounds himself with. Yet looking at the numbers, their DERR is 6% for 18 ypp, and Spurrier has had more assistants over the last 5 years than all but two SEC coaches. I feel that my naivity helps with this, as perception is often far off from reality, and it seems as if Spurrier is the poster child for this. On the other sideline, ALABAMA has an OFLUIDR of 89.5, while their defense is only surrendering 6.4 CPPG. The 1's and 0's have this game as almost a laugher. COMPUTATION: 24-13. The program does have Lattimore hanging 165 rushing/receiving, which in SEC play, those numbers produce a winner almost 71% of the time. Still going Bama.
ARKANSAS -5
Jerrod Johnson joins Beau Morgan (who NEVER threw at Air Force) and Chris Rix. The only problem is that Arkansas runs flat DE's with an emphasis on bringing pressure (avg DLP on pases: 1.6 yards) from the FAR outside (using nickel backs and LB's) in, while allowing pocket integrity on the inside. On top of that, Arkansas brings more than 5 players on the pass rush less than 9% of the time under Petrino. This seems counter productive, but in a game against a QB who uses his feet to make plays in both the running and passing game, it stands as a major advantage. It also explains their struggles against the wildcat, but that's another story. The Arkansas offense will have a decent day, with Von Miller struggling with injuries and having a very underrated TE facing off against a defense that historically lays the MLB in man coverage on almost 30% of passing plays. The biggest factor in this game is the corrected yards per game (CYPG) that show a pronounced deficiency in the A&M defense and special teams. Again, I have been told the A&M defense and special teams are ALWAYS good, but the numbers say otherwise with the CYPG outgaining YPG by almost 200 yards a game in the Sherman era. COMPUTATION: 34-23.
CLEMSON +3 1/2
The Tigers run all over a pretty good defense. The porous Tigers defense matches up well at the outside skill positions, which have amazingly accounted for 38 percent of the Carolina offense. So while it looks like Yates will be set up for a good game, he's going to lose the 1 on 1 battles his guys have been winning and turn the ball over. The CPPG of UNC is incredibly low, as compared to their actual PPG. The DAPPG of the Tigers is almost exactly what their raw PPG is. Lastly, the Tigers have two fantastic running backs who score out an average of 85.2 against the Carolina defense. COMPUTATION: Clemson 30-27. Take the points. I could see this being an A&M-OKST game with huge swings and the game settling to a field goal when it's all said and done.
FLORIDA -6 1/2
The Gators looked bad last week, there's no doubting that. Fortunately for them, they don't play Alabama Saturday. Look beyond the final score and the game wasn't quite as ugly as the score made out. The AOEFF is twice that of the Tigers and the athleticism advantage LSU MUST HAVE TO WIN GAMES simply isn't there, as evidenced by the 92.6-86.4 NAA. Lastly, Urban Meyer is made to look ugly by one type of coach, and that is the calculated coaching tacticians such as Houston Nutt, Nick Saban, and Lavelle Edwards. Les Miles is none of the above as his HCOE is a paltry 44.8. The game plays as a one point game at half, but ends in a Florida 18 point blowout. COMPUTATION: 34-16.
UCLA +7 1/2
I'm scared of this one, but the program shows Franklin going over 185 yards and Prince pitching in for 65 on the ground. The OER in the game puts the bears in a dog fight, and barring a NCSTesque bombing in the last couple minutes, you'll be happy as the gun fires. COMPUTATION: 26-24.
PITTSBURGH +6 1/2
This game is owned by a player we have all forgotten by now: Jonathan Baldwin. The program has been spot on with his poor performance thus far, and I believe it to be correct again. Say what you want about the RB's, who will play well, but Baldwin's 2 TD's compute PITT out as a winner outright. Take the points. COMPUTATION: PITT 31-27. A pretty little money line, too!
OREGON ST. +8 1/2
Arizona has the APPG angle down pat, but not by 8 1/2 points. It is more like 5, where the spread should be. The CPPG has them as a push, giving the Desert Swarm crowd a 4 1/2 point advantage. The OFLUIDR of Oregon St. sits lower than it has in the last seven years for the Beavers. Starting a freshman QB, you can expect this, but taking a closer look, the Beavers are mere points off where they usually are at this point in the season. COMPUTATION: 31-27.
AUBURN - 6
Kentucky's inability to stop the big play is a deal breaker in any home dog/SEC system someone can throw out there. Their DERR is almost 10%!!!! On these plays, they yield an otherworldly 31.4ypp. Defensively, the team speed rating of the Auburn immediately kills the only true advantage Kentucky may have in other SEC games with their two slash position studs. It sucks to lay six on an SEC road team, but we're doing it three times this week, as this archaic thinking is freezing these lines WAAY too low. COMPUTATION: 27-14.
TEMPLE + 4 1/2
The gambling darlings still can't pull a public dollar out of their asses to save their lives.
Again, we are against the "sharps", quite often tomorrow, but we are taking points everywhere except in the most powerful college football conference in the world. Taking points in conference games is never a bad thing. So let's go to work and bang the dogshit out of the books. As a matter of fact, I am pressing my plays up double what I have been with the bookie money I'm sitting on...C'mon, jump on the Computer train and have a little faith in the Geek. Remember, I am nothing more than an interpreter to what is easily the strongest, most unbiased processes: My good friend, Mr. IBM FOAK III Beta (yes, first of a kind three is a funny oxymoron, but it is what it is) will lead us all to happiness.
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