ComputerGeek's college plays of the week

A quick backstory:  My office cohorts gamble (and lose) quite frequently.  I made a few comments that they are bordering on being statistically worse than a coin flip.  So we have a large wager I can pick greater than 55% winners picking 7-13 pro/college games a week after coming up with an algorithmic formula.  This is our forum for documenting the picks.  I am not a big football fan, but hey, this will be fun.  Test drove in preseason pro (1-2) then watched the rest of preseason and week one college and am ready to unveil what I've got.  On to the picks...

IDAHO+28.5

The greatest variance in spread vs. computation is in this game.  Idaho's cppg (corrected points per game) is almost identical to their actual, a good sign against tougher competition that they can sustain drives efficiently enough to cover this spread. CALCULATION: 17-38

GEORGIA TECH -13.5

Looking at these two teams' nE% (null error percentage) indicates that the far more disciplined team is Georgia Tech whilst Kansas gives yards away on penalties with far more regularity than does GT.  Same goes for turnovers, which should be expected given the run-pass percentages.  But GT scores points at an 83% clip on turnovers leaving <65, a very high number that should account for 10 or so points.  CALCULATION: 27-9

KENT ST. +17.5

Kent St. has a very large advantage in both APPG (adjusted points per game), ADPPG, CPPG, and CDPPG in relation to the spread.  This game should be much closer than 17 points.  CALCULATION: 17-27

MICHIGAN +3.5

I have Michigan as an outright winner in this game.  Studying the previous stops in Brian Kelly's career, while results usually come quickly, the defense is usually what begins the turnaround, with the offense usually taking between half and a full season.  Scoring ND's offense, this appears to be the case again.  Their OFR (offensive fluidity rating), and yes, you can have a computer track something such as this with simple graphing, was very low.  It trends very similarly with his previous stops.  CALCULATION: 31-23 MICHIGAN... take the points, I'm a newbie.

UTEP +21.5

Again, following the histronics of UTEP's offense, the loss  (or severe hampering of his abilities) of Buckram, while important, was going to play far less a role in this game than many are anticipating.  The loss of Moturi (graduation) will play a more significant role.  I understand that Buckram had a big game last time out vs. HOU, but his replacement should still produce a positive outing.  My fear hear is that there is no true CPPG for Houston, as most of their scoring is quite unpredictable, except for the fact that they will score from far out, and often.  But UTEP can  stay close enough. CALCULATION: 48-31

RICE +3.5

The wildcard in this game is Sam McGuffie.  His NoPP rates higher than his more highly touted counterpart and this is not reflected in the spread.  David Beatty, going back to his previous stops (as far back as MacArthur HS in Irving, TX) will find creative ways to put this player in a position to make plays.  Beyond this comparison, the teams are virtually equal, the 4.4 points of home field notwithstanding. CALCULATION: 24-21 RICE...take the points. For a little bonus, McGuffie will put out around 180 yds in total offense and rattle off a big play as the difference in the game.  Be advised, he can also throw the football.  I'm just saying.

STANFORD -6

I read a little on ESPN talking about how Stanford would run all day on UCLA.  They'd better come out passing.  The CEFFR of Luck in this game should be in the neighborhood of 72, which should set them up for many scores LATE with the run.  Expect to bite your nails until half way through the third quarter, then a nice little run.  CALCULATION: 30-19

Okay, so that's seven.  Leaves me with no mandatory picks in the first week of the NFL, which I like.  I'll put something up for tomorrow a couple hours before game time, though I'm pretty sure nobody is going to care too much for those picks if these all bomb.  Good luck to all, and Mitch, Trey, and Tony, have my money ready.  I'm going to Costa Rica!

Are we allowed to give out email or something, I can explain these...  I am using historical data going back three years.  I tested week one and didn't play until I felt that I could win...

Very correct, Skipster, and I didn't particularly care for this, but came out 7.5 up against the spread and had to play it.  Eugene Jarvis scores out very well against a very disciplined defense, where gap contain is their strength and have struggled with smaller, more darty backs.  He was not a factor last year, and did a lot more timeshare than expected this year.  Keith also had a very interesting growth pattern since that last game.  Here's hoping that makes a touchdown difference between last year and this year... fingers crossed.

Quote Originally Posted by KansasCityEarl:

I will go to your space     and     request you as a friend....then I will
give you my email.................  ok....

sounds good

Hi guys, thanks for the responses.  5-2 with two ml winners is a great start.  I just threw the NFL games on...

Best of luck to all on Sunday.  Also, since I am doing this and have been told 55% wins me money, I opened an account with one of these sportsbooks on here.  Do you bet the same amount of $$$ on every game or do you change it up?  I played $150 all the way down, but wanted to do more w/ Stanford, so I'm looking for opinions...