College Football Week 1

Boise St. Broncos v. Georgia Bulldogs(+3)

As I’m sure everyone knows, it has not been profitable to bet against Boise in the last few years. There have been several reasons for that which I value as well. They have boasted steady quarterback play with a lot of seniority at important positions. They do a great job of rotating several players on the defensive side so that by the time the seniors graduate they have plenty of people ready to take over with experience. They are creating a model of success, which will continue to churn out winning seasons as long as they play the schedule they play. True, they are making a big jump to the MWC and one could argue that conference is now on par with the likes of the ACC. They are certainly top heavy and have some great teams, but still remains a conference with several poor teams and a lot of easy W’s for the cream of the conference.

So I don’t want this to come off as not respecting Boise, they certainly handed my Hokies a heartbreaking loss and one that they could not have pulled off without a winners mentality with how they drove down the field at the end of the game. Kellen Moore is a winner and intelligent and should never be overlooked.

Georgia enters this year coming off of their first losing season in a long time, culminating in a loss to UCF in a bowl game that we would all love to forget(unless you are a UCF fan of course). But Georgia didn’t panic and do something incredibly bold and stupid like most teams would. They retained Mark Richt who can recruit with the best of them and return a star at the QB position. Murray is ready to capitalize on a great freshman season and put himself in position to create some buzz heading into next seasons draft. I see him as a sure fire 1^st round draft pick whenever he decides to come out. IMO, they have their most exciting freshman running back (Isaiah Crowell) coming in since Herschel Walker (yes I remember Knowshon). The wide receiver corps takes a huge hit of course with the loss of AJ Green, but they just reload at that position and I expect King to step up and fill the #1 receiver role while they seem to just breed quality TE’s for Murray’s outlet. They start 3 seniors on the offensive line with lots of experience and they play the important spots (tackles and center). The inexperience comes at the guard position which you can hide and survive with.

The defense has a few more question marks in my eyes. They bring in a huge nose tackle from the JuCO ranks and also move DeAngelo Tyson to DE who should be a freak of a pass rusher. The linebacking corps got a bit stronger when Jarvis Jones transferred in from USC and have a lot of potential but I still view this as a spot that Boise can take advantage of. The strength of the defense is the secondary. They return Smith and Boykin at corner and should be a formidable duo while the safeties should be just as productive and veteran.

Special teams is always a strong spot for the Bulldogs as they return the best kicker in school history and have the athletes in the return game to scare the Broncos. I think this a clear advantage over Boise St.

So lets take a look at what all of this translates to on the field for the opening weekend game….

Boise offense vs. Georgia defense..

Kellen Moore is fantastic but has lost both Pettis and Young and will be replacing almost all of his production in the air. Avery is also a big loss in the pass game as he was an edge threat and outlet for Moore when he was pressured, which was rare. The Georgia secondary is the strong point for the defense and with the inexperience Boise has at receiver, I view this as a huge advantage for the Bulldogs. Specifically, I do not like how Moore plays when he is under a lot of duress. He does not get pressured often throughout his career, but with Tyson coming around the corner and the blitz packages that Grantham will draw up, I think he could see some pressure. Let’s not forget that it will be very noisy and almost a true road game for Boise. Boise has always taken advantage of the aerial presence on the ground and had lots of holes to run through due to the respect that had to be paid to the unit. This year, Doug Martin is going to find it a bit more difficult as I can see Georgia committing to stopping the run without having to put too much of an emphasis on slowing down the passing game early in Boise’s season. Do I think Boise will develop their wideouts throughout the year and have a great passing game by seasons end? Yes. But will it happen overnight and without game experieince? I really doubt it. I think Boise struggles to put points on the board and Georgia should be able to capitalize. The crowds backing and the pressure on Moore should produce some uncharacteristic decisions from Kellen that he is sometimes susceptible to when rushed.

Georgia offense vs. Boise defense..

I love Murray. He is a star. I think Crowell is going to shock a lot of people as well. This comes down to how much the Boise secondary develops in the offseason as they are replacing a lot of experience and quality in the secondary. Murray will take advantage of this and open up some holes for Crowell. Early on, I see the Boise front 7 holding their own vs. the Bulldogs and their ability to rotate players should keep them fresh, but I don’t think they are going to be able to overcome the early season flaws in the secondary. Boise loses Winterswyk on the defensive line which is big, but should be able to get some pressure on Murray with Winn and McClennin returning. Murray struggled a bit while pressured last season but this is where I think having Crowell is going to benefit him the most. That outlet to get him into the open field when Boise puts on the pressure is going to be huge. You cant defend him with a linebacker and the secondary is going to have all it can handle already with the Bulldog receiver corps. I think Georgia struggles to put some points up early on but they are going to have more big play ability than Boise with what I have already mentioned in the secondary. Early on in the season, big plays are even more important as both sides tend to be a bit more rusty.

Special Teams..

Speaking of big plays, Boise loses their career scoring leader and UGA returns their best kicker in school history. This can not be overlooked. Both teams traditionally have great special teams and both returns great returners with Potter from Boise and Boykin and Smith from UGA. I give the overall advantage to UGA in this spot due to returning one of the best kickers in football and having the established talent and experiencing in the return game.

I want to stress again that if I were capping this game later in the season I may not have these same thoughts. But early on there are different things that I value in capping. Boise is always going to come to play and while they almost always have the motivation factor going for them, Georgia is coming off of a losing season and are basically dogs at home! Richt needs a successful season and that will be motivation enough. I have Georgia with the advantage in all 3 categories in this game and have them favored by 4.5 after capping this so I am essentially getting 7.5 from my line. That is tremendous value for me and I something I am willing to hit hard early in the season

that statement alone should have backing boise st. i would respect more.

Georgia has never lived up to high expectations(have u checked around here and seen the polls)+Boise st has the situational edge here.

everything else is even.

Very valid points both sides.....I will personally be at this game.  My heart UGA+3 is prone to killing me, but I think the safest route is under the total.  Good write up.  I really look for UGA's D to improve tremendously.  Grantham's 3-4 scheme was new last year and takes a couple years to be effective.  I really look for it to be a stronghold this year.  Murray is a player, but I question our offense.  Crowell is a stud, but its hard to see him pull off what lattimore did at So. Car. last yr.  Outside of King, receiving corps is young and/or inexperienced.

I like under the total of what many will expect to be a shootout.

Good luck.

Bibendi - Georgia +3 is a winner.  Boise is the biggest sucker bet of week 1.

malebbc - I agree with under.  I don't see Boise scoring much in this game.

sorry buddy georgia aint shit n will not win or cover 3pts.

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

Bib... I m not here to mess your thread up. But I have to address something with jimmy.


Boise is a suckers bet based on what facts?

Lets review the facts: Georgia loses there starting backfield, there best overall WR the university may have ever had and there most important player on defense.... But Boise, the same team who performs at a high level every time they play a big opponent shows there " worth ".

Lets see...... the same Georgia that lost to UCF ( which they didnt even score a TD in ) in there last game WITH there best offensive players who are now gone and the same team that got smacked around by Colorado. Will easily handle this Boise team.


Am I reading and understanding this correctly?


I didn't respond to any of the other threads where you talked about this game. Why? Because I feel like its a wasted argument.





Wake up brother.....

I'm basing it on the fact that a bet on Boise crosses many sacredly held betting principals.

Here we have a game where a team with inferior talent is traveling 2500 miles from home to play in a hostile environment, AND are giving away 3 points to the more talented team.  What part of that scenario suggests to you that a bet on Boise is a shrewed bet?  Absolutely nothing.

As I have said before, and I'll say again, the ONLY side to bet in this game is Georgia, because it is the ONLY side that has any value whatsoever.  If you don't like Georgia, that's very understandable.  Just move on and bet a different game.  Whatever you do, don't put your money on Boise!!!

Last year means absolutely nothing in this game . . . NOTHING!!!  If we were talking about last season's Georgia team versus last year's Boise team, I think you would have a credible argument.  But that's not what we were talking about here.

As I have also said many times, I declared a no-bet edict for the Dawgs last season, thus I didn't bet on them one time the entire season.  In fact I came very, very close to pulling the trigger on UCF in the Liberty Bowl.  So had Boise and Georgia played last season, it would have been Boise or no play for me.  But we are no longer talking about last season, we're talking about this season.

Now let me ask you a question Boom.  What would have to happen in this game for you to conclude that Boise was a sucker bet?

good to hear from you Brother

This game is a Coin Flip

Excited to see it play out on the field

on a Side note

I Don't think Richt is the HC at Ga when the season ends ....

I like the Dawgs as well Bendi.....Even matchup, and I will gladly grab the points for the value play....