Civil War- In depth write up- discussion from someone who's been to 10 Civil Wars.

Oregon - 9.5 vs Oregon State O/U 61.

Okay. So, I've followed both these teams since I was young and my brother and dad pushed for me to love the Ducks and hate the Beavers. I haven't missed a home game since the 90's for the Ducks and I've seen the Beavers enough to know what they're all about.

First, I'm not saying the Beavers are a bad team. There's a reason that they beat Stanford and are currently 2nd in the Pac-10 with one game to play for the Rose Bowl, just like they had a shot at it last year.

Last year's 65-38 beat down at Reser is a big reason as to why I'm on the Ducks -9.5 this year. Sure the Rodgers brothers were out. And sure they will play in this game. But if you look at the stats.

LaMichael James has rushed 190 times for 1,310 yards on 6.9 yards per carry with 11 touchdowns. Not to mention Jeremiah Masoli's 105 carries for 619 yards at 5.9 yards per carry with 12 touchdowns.
All of this comes from an offense Oregon State couldn't figure out at home last year.

Jacquizz Rodgers 239 carries for 1313 yards at 5.5 yards per carry with 19 touchdowns. The rest of Oregon State rushers only have 4 touchdowns.

Sure Quizz's numbers are almost as good as James, but they don't have the style to keep up with a duo in James and Masoli. Plus there's talk of Blount playing, which would just confuse Oregon State to hell if they had Masoli getting the snap with Blount on one side and James on the other. Hell if Cal, USC, and Arizona couldn't stop the rushing attack with just James, how is a Beaver defense going to do it with Blount, James and Masoli.

Masoli is also passing better than he ever has. If any of you watched the Oregon-Arizona game, he led that comeback with his arm, not his legs and his 132.1 season long passer rating. Maehl and Dickson are good safety routs for this team and creates even more to cover for the Beaver Defense.

On top of that, last year was to take the Beavers out of the Rose Bowl. Every Duck fan wants that badly. But it was only to send us to the holiday bowl where we routed Oklahoma State. Now, this is once again to keep the Beavers out of the Rose Bowl, and put us in the Rose Bowl where we haven't been since 1995 vs Penn State.

Oregon Ducks players want back in just as badly as they want to keep Oregon State out, who hasn't been in since they played Michigan way back when, 1960? 1965?

Regardless, Oregon is a completely different team at home. I, personally, thought Cal was the best team in the nation when they came to Autzen on my birthday this September. The Ducks fumbled the opening drive and Cal lead 3-0 early. Some fans even thought it was going to be a long day. But Oregon overcame adversity and put up 42 unanswered after that. Just like they routed USC, a national powerhouse, at home.

Oregon State will be no difference. They are good, but they aren't as good as Oregon. I see Oregon getting up early and continuing 1st quarter home success.

Whatever the 1st quarter line is- big on Oregon. I'll assume it's -3, and I love it. 14-7 after 1- Oregon.

1st half line- love it as well, Assume around -6? Oregon will have pushed the lead or at worst kept it at 7.

Game- -9.5? It's a gift fellas.

Oregon tt over 34.5? Should hit as well. If you're scared about a backdoor cover, this is really safe. Oregon will put this up with ease.

Oregon 48 Oregon State 30.... could be even uglier. I'm staying away from the over, because if Quizz goes down or something goes wrong for the Beavers, I could see 47-13 and moosing the over, so the under hits. BOL on everyone's plays. and a merry early christmas this thursday from autzen.

I should also mention in that Cal game, when Best was coming off 5 touchdowns in Minnesota... he went 16 for 55 with 0 touchdowns. Look for similar numbers out of Quizz.

Who cares if anyone on OSU has any rushing TD's besides Rodgers?

Rodgers' stats are better than James and who cares who looks better, aka style?

Not saying OSU will win- but to compare last year's result to this year's game is silly..

Where do you see Quizz with better stats? Based on yards per carries? Let James carry the ball 50 more times and he 'll add another 400 yards to blow Quizz's 10 yard lead out of the water.

If you're talking about touchdowns it's because in the redzone he's a decoy so Masoli can walk in untouched. You should almost just add Masoli and James's stats together, since they both touch the ball, one on a fake, one on a keep every play.

Good write up. BOL 

Oregon homer picking Oregon.   

yeah that's what people told me last year when I placed my biggest bet of my life on the Oregon ML.

I've placed three 40 unit bets ever.

Oregon ML at Oregon State 2008
LSU- points vs Notre Dame Sugar Bowl 2007
Eastern Carolina + points vs West Virginia 2008

This Oregon game may feature a 40 unit bet, but I can't decide where I want to put it. I'm sure the 1Q, 1H, game and TT over all hit, which to pick though?

Completely agree here. I thought I was the only person here who liked Oregon, and thought a blowout was coming the Beavers way. and I actually like the Beavers team.

GL.

Great information whs, really appreciate the write-up. Should be a fantastic game to watch even if you don't make a play on either side.

I completely agree too. I think the Beavers are a great team. Or I would have unloaded when Stanford and Arizona came to Corvallis, but I stayed away and would have split and lost juice. They are indeed a good team. But they aren't as complete as Oregon. Thursday should be fun.

kapono

My only concern (maybe) is that Stanford beat up on Oregon but got crushed against OSU. I know that the OSU game was at OSU and the UO game was at the Farm though, so that probably explains a large portion of the discrepancy.

everyone loses the week after beating USC. That loss to Stanford means nothing to me. Just one of those games.

Chip Kelly has been in his dark cave for 10 days, masterminding. I cant wait to see what he has in store.

Oregon- also beat USC at home, and Arizona on the road.

Oregon State lost to USC on the road and Arizona at home.

Oregon is a daaaaaangerous home team.

Congrats on winning your bets, but that doesn't change anything.  Homers always think they are being logical, but you are just going with your team.  I only pointed it out because you tried to sound impartial.

Thats not always the case. Most here would tell you I never think with my heart when it comes to the Trojans. I wouldnt be wagering during college football if I were not picking games against my Trojans. My biggest wins are the one's where I go against USC.

But I dont know this guy, so yeah, he could be a homer.

You do the same thing with Cal

whsbaseball21     on the other side....but I love the write up.
Love Masoli....want to root for him.    Having a hard time with the chalk.  keep thinking it's closer game...like AZ.   might fade myself!!
and eat the chalk. 

BOL on whatever you play

Naturally. Boise State in week 1 was a gimme bet. Stanford was too as much as I hate to say it. 7.5 was way large for that game. Everyone has to eat their pride and bet against their team once in a while. This just isn't one of those cases.

Beavers should hang around
biggest game ever in the history

last year's civil war was the biggest game in beavers history. how'd that work out for them

nice one-sided/homer writeup.  way to ignore OSU passing game entirely.  also way to ignore all the TOs that Movaio (sp?) had last year and that Canfield is a much better qb who doesn't make many mistakes (only 6 picks this year---only 2 in his last 6 games).

OSU is way more balanced this time around and healthy, with a chip on their shoulder for getting mauled last year at home.  they also are the best road team in the Pac 10 over the past 2 years and most of that team remembers beating UO in Eugene two years ago.

 

 

 

Oregon gives up like 150 yards/game through the air when playing at Autzen. Sure Canfield ripped apart the pac-10 teams. How did he do against the soft Cincy defense that Juice Williams completely picked apart this last weekend?

Canfield's numbers were even softer against Arizona, a team Masoli led a comeback against with his arm, not his legs.

Sure Canfield's season numbers are better than Masoli's But when you throw 120 more passes, I'd hope you have more yards. and 19-6 tds to picks for Canfield. 14-4 for Masoli. It isn't like Masoli can't throw the ball. Oregon State's passing defense gives up over 200 a game, and Oregon's is 150 at home.

Good luck on your plays this thursday kroch