Penn St +2.5
It's gone back to 1.5 now most places but still a play for me at that number (2 is a key number in college now with the way it goes in OT so while it's not a huge deal it isn't insignificant) though this is just a standard one unit play. As often happens when we get down to finals and semi-finals, these teams are tough to split and it's very coinflippy. If there were more games left, I might skip it altogether.
Picking PSU is just based on whatever small factors or edges I think are there, and there aren't many. Tbh several of my usual capping stats point to ND, but only just barely. I do think ND played a pretty weak schedule and I think people are putting a little too much stock into them beating UGA who had a backup QB in, and if that kid couldn't beat out Beck then i mean you had to know he wasn't great.
Conversely I think people are not putting enough stock into how PSU crushed Boise. Yes, they were a bit one dimensional but that one dimension was very, very good and they bottled him up for most of the game. And besides, Madsen actually showed some abilities at times. He just made crucial mistakes as happens in big games vs great defenses and when you dont have great weapons at WR. But Boise was a very solid team, least giveaways in the nation and that game could have been a lot closer without the INTs. And UGA ND probably would have been too without that kick return.
I also think Ohio State's annihilation of Oregon has people forgetting how good Oregon was this year, and Penn St held their own pretty well with them, too. I don't think Riley Leonard is as talented as Dillon Gabriel (he's only thrown 18 TDs vs Gabriel had 30)
Drew Allar has 6 more passing TDs and I think with both teams being very good at running the ball, both teams will be focused on stopping that first so being able to throw TDs in the red zone will be key. The only guy on either team in the top 100 in rec TDs is Tyler Warren and the big TE in the red area gives PSU an advantage there. Of course, Riley Leonard can run for TDs too which counters that a little bit. Any time a game is this close you will have those where one team can do this the other has that.
For example, Penn St has the nation's leader in tackles for loss, while ND has the 2nd leading INT guy.
But Penn St has the better rushing defense, has allowed less 2nd half points and less 4th quarter points. I like those stats in a tight game where you need to finish strong. And my first instinct was 'the title game is going to be a rematch of Ohio St Penn St' with the big storyline about how Franklin has never been able to beat them. And when I'm not really sure about a call, I go with my first instinct. Because usually you lose when you don't do that. Think long, think wrong
I think people on this site rag too hard on Franklin, I don't really get it. He's in the semifinal and the team is always pretty good. Freeman is no genius, or they wouldn't have a loss to a MAC team on their record..and I DO think they should be in a conference. Penn St might not have beat Oregon or Ohio St but I think they are more battle hardened as a result of playing two teams who made the quarter final, they weren't embarrassed either time.
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