Posted:
#26
guysFIRESIDE CHAT WITH MEGALOCKS 
For all you young sparkies out there still learning the ropes - one thing you have to keep in mind with totals is that the EASIEST but often DUMBEST thing to do when handicapping is using averages. Its soooooooooooooooo easy to do that but usually meaningless. It's all about that particular matchup and the tempo of the game (which is sometimes different than what you expect - especially in bowl games).
Dont get us wrong - averages have their place - give you a general idea or baseline from which to start thinking about "value" but at the end of the day - this is gambling and very often the game takes a turn you didnt expect (e.g. key injury, refs on the take, notre dame refs show up, early scores for one team forces other team to change strategy, team surprise attack by using more passing than normal or surprise hurry up tempo, game goes to OT, etc....)
So the advice? Just do the best you can to predict the "style" of game and see what totals have popped up in similar games. BYU played tough games this yr against good teams 24-21, 7-6, 6-3, 17-14, 20-14. This game looks similar. 49 pts to beat us. Have to take a shot. However - it could end up 31-21, 38-17, 28-21, etc...no big deal its just one game and you move on.
GL ...MEGA
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Mega 
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