Buffalo -13.5

I am really surprised this line is not higher than 13.5.  Ball State is a pretty good team but not in Buffalo's class.  Buffalo has destroyed the MAC and I expect them to win by at least 17 or more.  Can anyone give me a good reason why Ball State will cover this line?  Thanks.  

Super Chicken

I think Buff rolls as well. But if ball st stays within 20 in 4th qtr And douses coach with Gatorade while high fives are tossed around ball st can backdoor them. Heck they could be down 27, still playing hard and score a TD. Buff lazily 3 and outs with 3 minutes left. Guess what happens next. Moose city. Wouldn’t feel comfy unless up 28 with less than 7 minutes left

but overall I think buff scores and defense gets enough stops to be up nicely in 4th

@RobertoTowne

Yes there is always a chance for the dreaded back door cover, but the good news is Buffalo is a running team and they will wear Ball down.  A passing team might take their foot off the gas but I am not as concerned about it with Buffalo.  But you do make a good point. 

Pound it. UB is my local team, I got them at -11 when it first came out. They'll roll Friday, the Oline will tcb, Balls D line will get overrun. GL

i agree and think they cover. But what good is a debate if everyone is in same side

ball st is strategizing right now to stop the run. They are going to make the QB and WRs beat them. If they can make a few connections thru the air then it’s a blowout. If buffalo fails to move the ball thru the air then ball st will commit 7 to the run and leave their DBs on islands. No reason for ball st to let buff run the ball down their throat without overcommitting to stopping run. This strategy has worked in the past

again I agree and think buff rolls but bal st isn’t going to simply lay down and declare buffalo superior. Hope for buff backers that QB is up to task

I posted this yesterday...Without Huntley in the lineup for Ball St their running game is weak in my opinion...Patterson & Marks will be running all over the place in this one..nobody in the Mac has stopped Buffalo from running..why should Ball St here?...Bulls by 20+ in my opinion..I think the -13 is 

I have the UNIVERSITY at BUFFALO winning by 20-29 points ...

Bet with confidence..If they dont cover so be it ..But this line should be 20 IMO 

I can see Vantrease throwing for some yards when Ball St sells out to stop the run.  Bulls have some decent WRs, just haven't needed them in a few weeks.

@DoubleUp4Life

 Was wondering your thoughts before I drop a hammer. Thank you i got them -14

He posted elsewhere anything up to -20 is a go. 

Everyone is still yapping about the crazy finish to the Ball State – Western Michigan game…what they seem to be forgetting is that Ball State was thoroughly outplayed by the Broncs. Western Michigan had 491 yards of offense despite two turnovers. They had 34 first downs compared to 17 for Ball State. Most revealing is that they had 218 yards rushing and 4.3 yards per carry. The undefeated Buffalo Bulls, who have now cracked the top 25, are literally licking their chops.
Buffalo has won all 5 of their games by an average score of 30 points, winning each game by at least 19 points. Now Ball State will be the best team they have played this year, but Ball State got beat by Miami OH (who Buffalo beat by 32). Kent State (who Buffalo beat by 29) is probably also every bit as good as Ball State. Frankly this line is a head scratcher. Ball State beat Northern Illinois by 6 points…Buffalo beat Northern Illinois by 19 – which still has them covering Ball State.

Buffalo scores points by blocking the crap out of you and handing it off to one of the best running backs in the country. Everyone knows this, but no one has stopped them yet. Nothing will change here. Buffalo is clearly a level higher than every other team in the MAC. They will get their just coronation this week. Riding the Bulls and laying the wood.

Just play the Over, its the safest bet there is.

Something about the entire nation just assuming this is a blowout something just doesn't feel right, especially with ALLLLLL the action so far in on Buffalo. I saw it was at like legitimately 97% of tickets earlier this afternoon on Daily Wager.. And the line just staying sitting welcoming under 14

I just don't like it 

 my sentiments exactly! 

vegas salivating. The holding calls on Buff O-Line going to be thru the roof. And defensive PI will be Ball St best play on offense. Refs keep this close and get ball st backdoor

So you are implying that the game will be rigged with direction from the Refs...So the corporate run casino's are going to give the ref's the action for their help.   That's nuts...The game has already moved 2 points and is right below a key number.   That plus, this is the MAC, made up primarily of 2 star and few 3 star recruits, where coaching and motivation are paramount to differentiate the best teams from the worst.   Thus, talent and resource parity.    All that plus, Vegas does not care who wins or who covers, because they have a portfolio of balanced action (all games, not just this game), and with regard to sharps, in a season of COVID, they aren't as sharp as they would normally be...

Based on my cap, considering preseason power rankings, adjustments, with the star Ball St RB out, along with one key shared opponent...Miami of Ohio, played one week apart...Ball St lost by 6 and Buffalo won by 32...If the sharp's were so on Ball State, the number would be dropping...DUFL as a partisan likes the line up to 20...It appears that sharps like it up to 14...It does not mean that Buffalo won't cover...

I am on Buffalo -13...GLTA 

Yes I believe refs get in peoples pockets all the time and use phantom flags to control outcomes. 

Its demonstrative of your character...

well you go on continuing to think very highly of yourself being so worthy to judge others opinions. Take care your honor

This is not about me at all...But, yes, I have a hypothesis about the character and motivation of folks who believe in conspiracy theories...

@LonghornHoosier

 I have a hypothesis as well about tremendous a-holes. My research strengthens by the day lol. I have no problem with people who disagree with my opinions Because I am wrong quite often. If only I could be graced with a gavel and robe like you

@RobertoTowne

 Talk to the hand...when you have been here on Covers for 13 years, then we can talk...Quasi Action Junkies like you always have to have an explanation as to why you lose your bets...It certainly can't be because you capped it wrong, or because you had bad luck, or perhaps there were unmotivated players or bad coaching decisions by one or both of the teams...When you can't explain things, you defer to conspiracy theories as to why you lost your bet.  When I see folks like you implying that these games are rigged, I just shake my head in disgust...If you want to call me an A-Hole for calling you out for conveying illogical and laughable conspiracy theories on this forum,  then so be it...I would rather come across as an arrogant a$$ than a fool...I am only 30-29-0 ATS this season, a tumultuous season of Covid.  I am certainly not proud of that record, though I have done my best, on the merits.   But, I can guarantee you one thing... none, zero, zilch of those 29 ATS losses, were rigged by the refs, players or anyone else...against me...Good day...

@RobertoTowne

 Hey man, I am really not an A-Hole.    I guess I am just too logical to believe in many conspiracy theories.  However, I know there is always that exception like Henry Hill in 1982 at Boston College.   I just don't think it is as common as I hear about here on Covers.   Thanks for being a good sport.  You can believe what you want to believe...Who am I to try evangelize you!     Stop by my weekly picks page any time and provide as much honest and constructive feedback as you can muster.  I wish you success this week.  Let's finish strong.  And good luck during bowl season.   It is been an overall down year for me, so I hope that I can be a better capper during bowl season and make a profit.   Take care!   

@jwheels86

 i like buffalo - 7 FH and also over 35 FH.i only play First halves with superior teams figure they get off quickly to a good start and dont worry about any late door covers.just my stupid opinion guys.

@jwheels86

 I agree wheels. Feels like a covers bloodbath. Wouldn’t be the first for Buffalo this season

I am playing -7 first half instead