RECAP ..
ARMY .. We hoped the D was maybe just AAC average and could handle decent offense or at least get lucky .. My takaway is they got really lucky early to not give up some massive big plays .. they got gashed up the middle numerous times, 3rd n long usually wasn't a problem for USF .. 4th and 40 wouldn't have been a problem either if you watched the ending .. holy crap .. We still had our chances to tie -3 if not cover .. the Army offense found the nice groove we wanted to see and nice coaching maneuvers to land the TD before the half .. .. USF looks like a decent team they but didn't always play like one but when it was time to move quick they figured out they can just hit every pass on this secondary .. Army's D looked like something closer to FCS grade up front and on the back end .. gunna reassess my AAC rankings and how I play these guys, I would expect to see fairly higher scoring in a few games this year .. But yeah we had -3 and inept CB gets put on an island in man coverage and USF needing 10 yards for Gramatica to sink a FG and tie it up knew they had an easy win .. absolutely sickening defensive call there ..
NEVADA .. The QB we wanted did not play that game .. apparently he was injured and we ended up seeing the two backups .. personally I don't know if the QB we wanted was gunna get us a cover he might have .. Wolfpack WR's had balls bouncing off their hands and numbers and like 1/10 on 3rd downs at whatever point a cover was out of reach.. backup QB threw a couple picks too and a WR fumbled to ice the ATS result .. they couldn't contain outside run or Mont St QB Lamson taking off .. iffy tackling for the most part .. Mont State seemed to be the cause of many of their drives failing dropped balls and inaccurate throws etc .. not so much Nevada's D making big plays .. play was doomed when the QB didn't play and maybe a chance if he did but bad play here .. I expected to see Nevada play one of their best games of the year and find out what that looks like .. might be one of their worst when we look back ..
FRESNO .. Same spot as last year .. same result .. TT OVER 31.5 covered at halftime thanks to a surprise 2xp play .. and they didn't let up much in H2 .. kinda slow start before they turned in on prob coulda landed us a killer line maybe -13.5 or so .. felt very good where we were at the whole way, Sac state stinks .. We've seen Fresno play what I suspect is a USC team that's very good with some ELITE level units .. we've seen em play I think the worst team in the FBS and Sac was just totally hapless .. so Jury still out overall wouldn't put much 'sure thing' stock in what we've seen so far ..
RECAP CONT'D ..
MIZZ .. Shoulda been a bigger win .. gave KU a free TD on the blocked FG .. great Mizz Kicker Craig had 2 blocked .. KU seems to have a little knack for it .. but that's basically 13 points of swing and this was just destined to not be close in Kansas .. KU looks scrappy and like the OC .. can pull upsets this year potentially .. but outlook is iffy overall .. jury still out on Mizzoo Simmons can definitely play but the D is nowhere near as strong as last year they'd have blown KU to smithereens if that team showed up in Lawrence this yr ...
FAU .. maaaaaan .. Navy QB got hurt and 31-7 or so somehow ended up 30-38 and Navy had a backdoor shot to sneak back into the gm .. I'll have to look into that .. maybe FAU dicking around after the big lead .. I said last week pretty much every game FAU is in has the potential to have a MASSIVE COMEBACK by either team .. Not much seemed impressive about Navy and without their big gamebreaking running QB I think the writings on the wall this year .. I hit Navy U8.5 -300 ssn wins when I saw him hurt and it feels like free money .. I'd look at Under 7.5 for more reasonable odds if we see that around .. as suspected their D is not very good this year .. just like Army's .. the QB injury will hold him out for a good number of games and I can't see them competing close to expectations .. and as fun as FAU looked I think a decent D can make them struggle and the mistakes will be there without the BIG POINT totals, and their D looked improved but not anything special .. so not a legit AAC contender IMO ..
BUFF / FIU .. looked pretty dead nut under all gm .. Buff was in the 3 n out death spin cycle of death early .. new QB came in and did okay .. total hit by a hook .. sheez ..
CUSE .. maaaan idk they should have finished that team off so easy .. just a high mistake low reward bunch ..
BC / RUT .. Rutgers' D is so bad we nearly lost this one .. beware of them they are pure dirt ..
NDSU / AF .. felt dumb playing that the moment I hit it .. the offenses are efficient enough and we didn't really know if AF was any good on D yet .. slow burn offenses aren't the key for a total under its scoring efficiency and NDSU puts TD's on the board .. and got a kicker that can hit 58 yarders .. wow .. lot of big talk for AF this year .. needed to know how improved their D is from the horrifically bad FCS level one they had last year .. welp .. it is improved.. but .. I think much of their scoring at the end was from NDSU dealing with the altitude and managing a win with a big margin .. I wouldn't knock NDSU or give AF any cool points for closing the gap late .. AF on the road might be real trouble ..
SMALLER
N.CAROLINA +4.5
Amazing .. didn't think we'd be here but ... Clemson stinks and even at home it feels like they can lose every game on the schedule .. they look like last years' team but without the good players .. its trouble all the way ..
UNC has their deficiencies and weaknesses but they have some guys that can move the ball and put some points on the board .. Petrino and QB Edwards with that good TE I think will find some holes in the D and it doesn't feel like a big edge for Clem on offense and think UNC's D can probably find ways to stifle Clem's drives .. maybe UNC falls apart here or Clem finds a gear on offense we haven't seen in well over a year .. but idk .. certainly will have UNC in a ML parlay somewhere .. - good luck!
Good call on Fresno 
....I went that way in the evening when it looked like my Buckeyes were gonna cough up a fur ball and my day was looking like around .500 .... I did some later parlays that helped
Good analysis on that one Bridge and we both saw a dominant score but just needed another good capper to confirm what I was leaning toward rather than taking the UNDER in that game (would have lost)
GL this week 
This week looks like Vegas teasing people with home dogs and big road spreads
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