Bowl Picks and why

Golden - back at ya

Achilles - It's looking at the opening line, the numbers and past results - and basing decisions on what history has shown.  I find similar patterns and lines and go with trends I track.   As I indicated in the #1 post - bowl games are different than the regular season so you need to make adjustments to ensure you are comparing apples to apples.

Obviously it doesn't always work out - but in the case of Navy it worked.  In some of the games thus far we were in there but it tumbled the other way.   Hope that answers your question - i'm traveling so I'm a little late on replying to posts.

Record stands at 9-10-1.  Today:

My plays: 20. Aforce +6.5   21.   Ncar. +3   22.   Nev +3.5   23. LSU - 7.5

good luck all

Bamers - Was in AC for a couple of days and needed a break but back at it today:

Let's look at this Okla/Clem game:

3.5   Okla   7   31   2  19

        Clem  13  7    3   41

Okla opens up as a 3.5 fav. currently around the same or 4.

Clem is only better in Total def. while okla is better in all the other categories I look at.    Historically when you have this scenario - the bottom team often wins out right or at least covers.  We had one situation this year - az/nmex and numerous games from previous bowl games where this has been the case.   The only game that had an identical opening line of 3.5 was when wva opened as a 3.5 fav against syra - syra was the bottom team and won out right 38 -14.  Based on the numbers - i'm taking Clemson. 

Record stands at    11-12 - 1

My plays:  25.   Clem. +3.5   26.  Fla st - 7  27. Alabama - 10 

Good luck all  

Let's look at the numbers for the mich st/Alabama game:

      Mich st   68  26   9   44

10  Alabama  49  2   1    4

Alabama opens up as a 10 pt fav currently around the same.  As you indicated moody - Alabama would be considered "way better" on paper as they are better in all categories  with significant differences in total def., sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength.  When a team is better in all categories and have a point spread of 10 - they often dominate the opposing team.   

Relax - it's not just defense but taking the categories above along with the opening line and seeing what's happened in previous bowl games played with these scenarios and lines.  Hope that answers your question.

Happy New Year all.   We hit Clemson and Alabama - should have avoided flast/hous with the nqb.   Record stands at 13-13-1.

Let's look at some numbers:

8  Tenn      50  46   17   32 

   Nwest  115   11   31   47

Tenn opens up as a 8 pt fav. currently around 9.5 .  Tenn is better in all categories except Total def.  Historically the bottom team keeps it close and sometimes can win it out right.  This pattern occurred yesterday with okla./clem as well with az/nmex.   I foresee NW keeping it close with an outside chance of winning it su.  

My plays:  28.  Nwestern + 9.5  29. Ohio st -5.5  30.  Fla +4.5

Good luck all