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JBone_Texas

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Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 1016

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 8:00 AM ET #26

Hope you don't mind all the posting but just wanted to get some data in here. Stats are imperfect and they don't tell the whole story but these are some of the best stats we have as a place to start.

I'll say a couple of things that stood out to me, then shut up and let the pros do the talking:

1. DL gets you a LONG WAY, look no further than LSU, Florida, Michigan of getting 8-10 wins a year with horrid offenses. A great 2ndary is very nice to have but Ohio State and Washington lost nearly everyone from last year and their DL kept their defenses stout. Hell even the crazy offensive focused Mike Leach started to figure out he needed a DL.

2. Your DL also needs to get sacks. Sacks overall are very important but if you have to blitz a lot to get them eventually you will be robbing Peter to pay Paul.

3. Offensive line is a hard one to quantify. Isolated OU may not have the best pure OL but it also has to do with the QB, offensive coaching, and skill players to make it work. Consider that OU easily beat arguably the #1 DL twice and the #4 on the road and go back and watch the tape of those games. I saw command and confidence and that a great offense can beat the best defense you can throw at it. Also last year Clemson and Alabama had clearly the best DL's by stats in the country and probably the best defensive's, yet they put up 66 pts. Two years ago Penn State had one of the worst offensive lines in the FBS, it has improved some but it was the offensive coaching, McSorley, and the slew of skill players that were able to hide this weakness.

4. I was surprised about Clemson and Kelly Bryant. He only threw 12 TDs and had 6 INTs (Hurts had 15 TDs but only 1 INT). On the one hand I think I need to give the coaching job even more credit but on the other I'm concerned and I would be willing to bet they are too, they would not keep OU from scoring and would struggle to keep up. Also surprised about JT Barrett, I wanted him to be ranked last but as bonehead and limited as he can be at times he threw 35 TDs to 9 INTs, had a 161.7 efficiency rating, and completed 64.7% of his passes. Those are damn good numbers.

5. Speaking of Ohio St, you can certainly see where they have a solid argument but unfortunately for them so does Bama. Something just wasn't quite right for Washington this year, they are a playoff team on paper.

6. I like Georgia and Fromm but if Ohio St and TCU couldn't prevent OU from scoring 30+, Georgia doesn't stand a chance. It makes you wonder if on the big stage when they really need to keep up if they will be able to make the big pass plays. There is just something to it, maybe confidence and repetition but if you don't push scoring with the passing game its hard to dial it up when you need it most.

7. Beware of conference generalities (ex. the Big 12 doesn't play defense). Last year the Big 12 clear and away played the best defense in the bowl games, to the surprise of many...Baylor and Ok State even joined the party.

Hope you don't mind all the posting but just wanted to get some data in here. Stats are imperfect and they don't tell the whole story but these are some of the best stats we have as a place to start.

I'll say a couple of things that stood out to me, then shut up and let the pros do the talking:

2. Your DL also needs to get sacks. Sacks overall are very important but if you have to blitz a lot to get them eventually you will be robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Area51

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 3129

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 8:17 AM ET #27

Welcome back.

BOL

Flush1

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Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 1317

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 11:26 AM ET #28

Classic step in competition for UCF vs an AU team that has a chance to get healthy . Im respectfully on the other side of this game . AU defense is going to have a field day .

I think UFC undefeated status will motivate the Tigers . UCF allowed 50 to Memphis . wowza

Tappy

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Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 3470

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 11:39 AM ET #29

Bama's offensive production improved greatly this season, except for the Iron Bowl... Daboll > Kiffin ANY DAY of the week. I mean come on, Daboll was coaching the Patriots offense, TE's yeah, but still.

He runs the ball more, and takes more deep shots...

I will agree that Clemson's defense is elite and will give Bama trouble, and it all depends on the run game... If Harris and Bo cannot get going I have little faith in Hurts to win the game as good as he is. We will see...

Bizman11

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 61

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 2:53 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

play number 1

UCF + 10

this is not your typical coach leaving his team situation, Frost will coach in the bowl game and his team his school and everyone involved at UCF is super thankful for him and happy for him, they were 0-12 when he took over and went undefeated in year 2, he is leaving to his alma mater and leaves the program in a great place to hire a big name coach, this team will be on a mission to finish undefeated, Frost is very close to his players & despite getting offered his dream job had a very difficult time making the decision

Auburn on the other hand is banged up and not in the playoff (which is where their heads will be), how excited are they going to get playing UCF? I don't see them being that fired up

matchup wise, UCF has a great defensive line and will slow down the Auburn run game for sure, I'm predicting they average 4 yds per carry or less, Stidham will make his throws and they will score but it's in the DNA of Gus to want to run and run more, this will help UCF, the Frost offense will also score on everyone

I'll predict UCF leads most of the game and pulls off the upset, if Auburn wins it is very slim margin in my opinion

take the points

I respect your opinion but a great defensive line?? Did you watch their last two games against South Florida and Memphis. Their defense got mauled could not get any stops and let up 97 points and a ridiculous amount of yards. I have won a ton of money on UCF this season and love what Frost has done but if and it is a big if Auburn decides to show up I dont see how UCF stops Auburn a much more physical team then they are used to and the best defense they will have faced by far. I just dont see how you can use the word great and UCF defense in the same sentence. Good luck. I am not on the game as of yet.

Boom_Boom

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 17342

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 4:56 PM ET #31

Hey there you old son of a gun

Kurshka

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 19156

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 8:26 PM ET #32

Good to see you back Cat Man. You are razor sharp with your information. Taggart took the FSU job.

Happy Holidays.

Jailbait7127

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 6803

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 8:29 PM ET #33

GL wahoo

WahooS

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 25640

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 9:05 PM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by Flush1:

Classic step in competition for UCF vs an AU team that has a chance to get healthy . Im respectfully on the other side of this game . AU defense is going to have a field day .

I think UFC undefeated status will motivate the Tigers . UCF allowed 50 to Memphis . wowza

I think Auburn is probably the 2nd best team in the country when healthy, they are certainly very good, I really wanted them to play Clemson for the title and have another shot at the Tigers who have beaten them two straight now, it didn't happen and I think they won't care about this game despite the coach speak you'll hear from newly rich Gus

we will see

Memphis runs a whole different offense than Auburn and UCF was trying to "hang on" to that perfect season, they were tired from that last month and Memphis had revenge, this will be a whole different mindset

you have an Auburn team that is playoff quality good and from the SEC with that SEC attitude and you have an undefeated team that feels disrespected for still being ranked like 12

Auburn isn't happy about this game, UCF is, very simple angle

IF these two were playing for the national title I'd take Auburn 8 days per week BUT they are not, this is a whole different story

UCF gets it done, thanks for the post

WahooS

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 25640

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 9:08 PM ET #35

Tappy-- Daboll isn't even in the same league as Lane, they aren't close, Lane had Bama playing a way better style of offense with true threats at every position, this year's Bama offense scares literally nobody, I'm not arguing with you, we have different opinions

WahooS

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 25640

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 9:13 PM ET #36

Bizman-- I could have used the word "good" instead of great, fair point

I tend to look at an entire body of work and my eye test vs what the last game of the season will show

UCF will be refreshed with a point to prove and it is my belief that their defensive line will be key when they get me the money, I also see their offense scoring on Auburn

I'm the biggest Stidham fan on planet earth and I like Auburn's team, I think they are great

just feel this situation calls for UCF, I'll take my chances

thanks for the post and best of luck with your wagers

WahooS

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 25640

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 9:14 PM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:

Good to see you back Cat Man. You are razor sharp with your information. Taggart took the FSU job.

Happy Holidays.

info that cuts like a knife, the inside stuff Kurshka, I'm not good for much else though

WahooS

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 25640

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 9:23 PM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

Hey there you old son of a gun

the ghost himself, what up Boom, ready to celebrate another title?

I think you prob get by Bama but the 2nd game will be tough, we will see if Bryant can get it done when it matters most, OU and UGA both nice & won't be easy outs

if they beat Bama again then Clemson is the premier program in the country, they will have beaten both Bama and Auburn twice in a row (nobody else can claim anything near that)

if you lose to Bama then tip the cap to Saint Nick, he's a legend for sure, obviously have to respect that Bama program, they have been the leaders for a long while now

should be a great game, I'm leaning to your Tigers for sure but don't LOVE it

Beningo88

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 23483

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 10:12 PM ET #39

ASU new coach??

WahooS

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 25640

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 10:20 PM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

Tappy-- Daboll isn't even in the same league as Lane, they aren't close, Lane had Bama playing a way better style of offense with true threats at every position, this year's Bama offense scares literally nobody, I'm not arguing with you, we have different opinions

I'm obviously being kind of sarcastic Tappy, they clearly scared Vanderbilt and a few cupcakes but they didn't do anything against Auburn and should look similar vs Clemson, I think Clemson has a better defense than Auburn (not by much), we will see

both are top teams and either can win, I'm just not as impressed with Alabama as I usually am, I thought they were great last year, not as overwhelming this year

Clemson has also taken a step back on offense with loss of Watson, they seem to take a lead and just camp out in the 2nd half of games

I think alot of beating Bama is not being scared of them and just hitting them in the mouth like Auburn did, Clemson has gone toe to toe with them two years in a row and will not be intimidated

I'm excited to see the game

I think we have 4 very good teams in the playoffs and despite all the bickering amongst fans, we have 4 of the best 6 teams in the country

if I were ranking them in order I would have

1. Clemson

2. Auburn

3. Bama

4. Georgia

5. Oklahoma

could argue for any of those 5 though, I think all 5 of them are better than the Big10 teams like Ohio St and Wisky (OU proved that on the field already)

the SEC is the best conference in the country because their top 3 teams are better than the other conferences top 3 teams, of course the rest of the conference isn't having a great year but what conference is? they are all top heavy it seems

I like ripping SEC fans to have fun but I have SEC as the top conference in 2017

WahooS

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 25640

Posted: Dec. 5, 2017 - 10:30 PM ET #41

Bening --

obviously a twilight zone hire, nobody in their right mind would hire that guy for that job, he's a motivational speaker at best, it is smart of him to bolt ESPN as they are going bankrupt and cutting jobs left and right, Herm knew the right people at ASU and what started out as a joke ended up in a job, I knew over a week ago he was going to get that gig, literally couldn't imagine it being real, he wasn't a good NFL coach and he will get killed in the Pac12 UNLESS he has a huge budget & hires an amazing staff to run modern offense

I'm guessing he will be a good recruiter because he's a good speaker and parents will love him, he will also help mold young men, he's a great person (from what I hear) but that only goes so far, once they realize he won't win he will lose his job

BUT, he will have made a solid chunk of money and be set for a nice retirement

what a world we live in

Last2thirst

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2013

Posts: 13610

Posted: Dec. 6, 2017 - 12:18 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

had a nice long much needed break from the internet world for weeks, it was awesome, now I'm back to smack up the books for the bowl games

think the committee made the right choice putting Bama in the playoff, who really needed to see Clemson maul Ohio St again? I know I didn't, they are much better off playing a terribly coached USC team and should run all over them

at least Bama will make it interesting, they go home early though, Clemson defense will win that game, they match up well with this year's Bama offense, Bama misses Lane badly, that offense isn't winning a Natty, just waiting to see if I can get 3, don't really feel the need to bet it at 2, will 100% bet Clemson first half if they are a dog, I mean, come the fuk on

congrats to both OU and Georgia on winning their games, that will be a very fun game to watch, a gamer named Baker vs a well coached nice defense in UGA, I see Ou jumping out to lead and UGA probably wearing them down as the game goes, I'll look for OU first half line and possibly come back with UGA 2nd half line, we will see as we get closer but that is my feel for now

UGA had the perfect storm with Auburn coming off two huge games and banged up, revenge factor and they played a scrimmage against Ga Tech while Aub was playing their hated rival, feel like a healthy Auburn team is still probably better but it is what it is, speaking of Auburn, once Stidham and his arm are gone you get Gus for 7 mill a year (a guy who is 18-15 in SEC play, woooooooooow), Stidham basically made him 50 million because imagine Sean White or one of those other goofs he had playing QB, you never beat Georgia or Bama with either and Gus is probably high tailing to Arkansas with 5 losses, he is super thankful for Stidham during this holiday season even though they never really used him right, he simply kept that offense running smoothly and didn't lose them games like the QB's they had before

I thought Wisconsin fought hard and did their best, the problem a team like Wisky has is this, you can't run run run all year and hardly ever pass because when you get in big time games and need to throw you need a passing attack, when you get behind you need a passing attack, they simply don't have one, that QB is below average with his arm, therefore you can't beat a top 5 team when it matters, Ohio St isn't that elite this particular year and they were clearly way better than Wisconsin, the athletes weren't even that close from the eye test, will be interesting to see Wisky vs a devastated Miami team that was finally exposed, did people think Richt was going to the playoff? Clem was free money, freeeeeeee

we have a great playoff in my opinion, all 4 very good teams and all 4 can win it on the right day, I'm ready to see it

really wanted Auburn to make it because I thought they would get another shot at Clemson and it would be a great game, that is what I was cheering for personally, oh well

Happy Holidays to those of you still around this time of year

Wahoo, I friend requested ya ......so we could converse as we approach March. I will PM you in the future.

Tanks man

Proving is hard. Talk is easy.

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

had a nice long much needed break from the internet world for weeks, it was awesome, now I'm back to smack up the books for the bowl games

we have a great playoff in my opinion, all 4 very good teams and all 4 can win it on the right day, I'm ready to see it

really wanted Auburn to make it because I thought they would get another shot at Clemson and it would be a great game, that is what I was cheering for personally, oh well

Happy Holidays to those of you still around this time of year

Wahoo, I friend requested ya ......so we could converse as we approach March. I will PM you in the future.

Tanks man

lmb4321

All-Star

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 12454

Posted: Dec. 6, 2017 - 12:34 PM ET #43

Welcome back Wahoo.....Hope you cleared your mind on your break....Quick question....who do you think will end up being the Champion after all the playoffs?....

Crusher13

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 8053

Posted: Dec. 6, 2017 - 1:05 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

Bening --

BUT, he will have made a solid chunk of money and be set for a nice retirement

what a world we live in

CHEIF..may I ...since I once loved me some CHIEF WAHOO McDANIEL..back in the AWA Days....

I ONLY highlight this one very well thought out typed response....

Invaluable COVERS asset..thx for posting...

on UCF (+10 and ML) here...eaziest $$ of that day...

Great INFORMATIVE posting

mws

Captain

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 7191

Posted: Dec. 6, 2017 - 2:21 PM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:

Bama's offensive production improved greatly this season, except for the Iron Bowl...

And except the Florida State game.

And except the LSU game.

Basically, except any game against a team with a good defense.

bitty11

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 278

Posted: Dec. 6, 2017 - 4:26 PM ET #46

OK, this comment goes to you Blowoutgame and BoomBoom, (and a few others I can't remember because I'm getting to old).

I have used this comment before and it's one I live by. And it's also one that for those who do, they usually come out ahead! "A smart man knows what he doesn't know" If you follow that, you will probably come out on top. I know I am not a good capper, so I follow those who are, and appreciate the time and effort they put into this site. So for thank you again, keep up the great handicapping and lets have a great bowl season and crush the books.

Badger66

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 6260

Posted: Dec. 6, 2017 - 8:10 PM ET #47

Glad to see you are back Wahoo - one of the best on this forum - missed your insight!!!
Good Luck with the bowls.
By the way - Nebraska is so lucky to get Frost - given time, believe he turns things around at my alma mater.

MikeMed

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 4793

Posted: Dec. 9, 2017 - 10:52 PM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

play number 1UCF + 10this is not your typical coach leaving his team situation, Frost will coach in the bowl game and his team his school and everyone involved at UCF is super thankful for him and happy for him, they were 0-12 when he took over and went undefeated in year 2, he is leaving to his alma mater and leaves the program in a great place to hire a big name coach, this team will be on a mission to finish undefeated, Frost is very close to his players & despite getting offered his dream job had a very difficult time making the decisionAuburn on the other hand is banged up and not in the playoff (which is where their heads will be), how excited are they going to get playing UCF? I don't see them being that fired upmatchup wise, UCF has a great defensive line and will slow down the Auburn run game for sure, I'm predicting they average 4 yds per carry or less, Stidham will make his throws and they will score but it's in the DNA of Gus to want to run and run more, this will help UCF, the Frost offense will also score on everyoneI'll predict UCF leads most of the game and pulls off the upset, if Auburn wins it is very slim margin in my opiniontake the points

I agree this is a close game........Not a lot of motivation for Auburn here in this spot.

UCF +10 = very solid wager

blowoutgm

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 6204

Posted: Dec. 10, 2017 - 12:49 PM ET #49

Leaning on taking UCF myself- I really was hoping that Gus would go to Arkansas as this bet would be even better but it still makes sense- This could very well be a Alabama/Utah type game where the "little" guys have a point to prove and end up whipping an unmotivated Auburn squad- I am hoping the line movesj in our favor closer to game day-

UGA520

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 380

Posted: Dec. 11, 2017 - 10:31 AM ET #50

Wahoo! Good luck to ya this bowl season bud. I loved the South Carolina line when it can out with them catching 8, but now with the whole mess with them firing the OC behind Muschamps back and all, sounds like a mess. Thoughts?

Oh and GO DAWGS! I would love to see Bellemey, Carter, and Roquan Smith murder Mayfield, but...... If it doesnt happen I'm so happy with our season. We finally WIN the SEC and Richt does his normal in a championship game down in Miami. December 2nd 2017 was a great day to be a Bulldog fan.

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