BOISE STATE @ WYOMING: Usually I say make a somewhat moderately sized play...

2016 Record: 23-9

The Pick:

BOISE STATE -13.5 over WYOMING (LARGE)

I solicited opinions on this one and after hearing them, capped after it. Just got done watching the games for both teams and on paper and with the eye test, Boise should get anything it wants on offense, particularly through the air with the nation's 15th best passing attack against the 123rd worst pass defense of Wyoming.

I LOVE that Wyoming comes in overconfident on a 3 game win streak. Boise has never lost to Wyoming in it's history (10-0) winning by an average of nearly 30 points (although those were inferior teams).

I also LOVE that Boise had an ultra-close win on national television last week (which their coach will view as a 'loss' in performance) against BYU where they turned the ball over 5 times and still won 28-27 which says a lot. BYU is a gutty, well-coached team that will frustrate you and BYU was so desperate they were running fake punts from inside their 5 (one of the worst fake punts of all time).

If Boise capitalized on that fake punt inside the 5, they go up 21-0 in the first quarter and probably cruise to a 20-24 pt victory. Instead they did the following:

shanked a field goal

threw a pick six

fumbled on a running play

threw another pick six

17-14 BYU before you can blink. Don't worry, that is a good thing as the Achilles Heal of your previous week will be the focus of practice all week to correct it.

Boise's Rypien is a remarkably accurate passer hitting his receivers perfectly on their fingertips. A pleasure to watch. He will be throwing all over the place on this 'defense'.

To show you how bad Wyoming's pass defense is, against Nevada last week, here was Nevada's last 5 possessions: TD, FG, TD, TD, TD. They didn't punt the ENTIRE second half.

This is a Nevada team that was beaten by 10 by a Hazell lead Purdue team. On top of that, Nevada threw for 300 yards. Unremarkable? Not when it's the emergency backup doing it and who had all of 100 yards passing ALL YEAR, and then subs in for 3.5 quarters and looks like Joe Montana.

I seriously believe I could play in Wyoming's secondary and have some success.

Wyoming also lost their right tackle this week to a foot injury and the backup has played one game in his career. That's bad news against a Broncos defense that is 40th in the country and averages 3.57 sacks per game.

And the Broncos Run defense is even more impressive giving up only 6 rushing TD's at 14th in the nation (42nd in total run defense).

That works in our favor since Wyoming since running back Brian Hill ranks second in the nation in yards. This will be a bit more of a challenge and quite a shock considering his 250+ yard day last week was against the 125th ranked run defense in the nation.

Boise state not only has a passer in Rypien but also the 6th best rusher. For the record Wyoming is 39th in YPG defended. But their pass defense is a sight to behold and will get us this cover.

They gave up 300 yards to a Nevada backup, a team that was held in check the week before by San Jose State in a 14-10 loss. And San Jose State has the 117th worst passing defense in the nation.

Boise was ready to blow the doors off BYU but the mistakes did them in. Limit the turnovers and I see a 24-27pt win here. But we don't even need that. With a line of 13.5, two TD's does the trick. Not worried about the square side given I'm taking 14 with Purdue in my other play, the anti-square play of the week. I love the mixture of the plays home/road square/sharp. I'm much more comfortable with this one with what Wyoming has to offer defending through the air.

BOISE LARGE. National title hopes still on the line and there is no way Wyoming is derailing them. Wyoming is in no way desperate here already sitting comfortably with 5 wins and needs a single win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. I see Boise getting out fast and not looking back, and limiting the mistakes of last week. Wyoming will score, but it will all be in the rear view mirror.