Boise State vs Sparty......

It's great to see college football on the horizon .  I'm back for another season here at covers and I look forward to discussing this great sport/gambling with the forum.  And then we have the haters, which will be here too.  

nice writeup - i concur...low scoring tight game through the first half...then MSU pulls away...Boise has been an amazing story.   The best analogy that i can use for Boise the last 10 years is a startup, that went public,grew rapidly, took market share, then matured.   Boise will not surprise Mich St.  I believe Dantinio is comparable to Pederson so that is a wash.   I would give the LT recruiting edge to Mich St, even though Mich St has not been an elite (Top 10) recruiter.   I think the E Lansing home field at night will be one of the key factors while, Michigan's D will be the other.   Boise will play tough and hard.  They will have innovative schemes to take advantage of Mich St weaknesses.   But, I think Mich St will anticipate Boise's tactics.   This is a huge game for Mich St which has been mentioned as a dark horse NC candidate.   Boise will take its lumps this game, come back and destroy the MWC schedule, and be a top 15 team anyway by the end of November.  If this game were in late October on a neutral field, then it would be coin flip.   I believe Mich St will TCB ATS -7 against Boise on 31 August 2012...

 Starting to lean on Boise and the pts here...I like that beef at DT for Boise...two 300+ pounders is pretty rare in cfb...I think Boise can roll up tough in the trenches here.

The under is a very relevant wager here....still contemplating the "ifs", but I like the QB Southwick for Boise being the better of the two QBs next Friday.  4th year Junior, has studied under Kellen Moore and Petersen...he should be very capable (even though, as of now BSU has not named an official QB0.

MSU has a way of getting into a lot of 3rd and longs if they cannot run...but we will see.

I agree it is a low scoring affair, and one I am leaning towards the pts.

good luck bense!

Bense I like both Sparty and the under...

With that being said tho.... Dont you think you should have waited to hit that under? It will move up.

I like and respect your write-up! Michigan St. Looks great on paper! Their Def. especially! But I rememeber last years game in Georgia! All the Cappers swore Georgia were going to smash Boise St. and look what happened! Anything Michigan has never showed me much, so I'm going for Boise St on pure Heart!

Bense

After spring ball, I was still a little concerned about the offense, but what I've been hearing about maxwell/sims/fowler and company makes me think MSU has a great shot for the Roses..

@ bigvern1013, regarding Boise's "beef" up front.  Size doesn't matter, it's how you use it.    Georgia fielded a massive DL week 1 against Boise last year with John Jenkins at 350+ and Abry Jones at 300+.  Boise had an "undersized" OL but completely controlled and dominated the line of scrimmage.  Boise's lack of experience on the DL is what matters.  Only 5 career starts between the 4 starters.  Michigan State's OL not only has some "beef" up front (4 guys 299+) but has 4 starters coming back. The great philosopher Jimi Hendrix once said "Are You Experienced?"  In this case Boise is not.  Check goes to Sparty.

Good luck bense, I respect your opinion but I think that your over estimating the Spartan defense. Yeah, they are definitely very good but Boise State just doesn't get held to 13 points very often. They have scored at least 16 points in 81 of their last 82 games and in 126 of their last 129 games.  During that time they have averaged over 47 points per game. It doesn't seem to matter whether it's Kellen Moore, Taylor Tharp, Jared Zabransky, or Ryan Dinwiddie starting at QB. I have a feeling that Joe Southwick will continue to carry the torch and lead the Broncos to at least 21 points. He knows the system very well, he has a strong arm, and probably has better mobility than any of the aforementioned QBs. Plus you know that the inexpierienced MSU offense will have their share of 3 and outs, giving BSU plenty of possesions. 

by midseason Boise will be back to its old form, lock n load, reload...but in week 1 @ Mich St at night, they are going to be humbled...

the only reason this spread is not 10+ is because of Boise's rep...the reality, at least against a NC contendor, is that they have some work to do...

Boise's offense may not be able to move the ball.  In their last fall scrimmage, they turned the ball over 7 times.  I wouldn't go crediting the defense for all of that either.  They're not THAT good.  And although Southwick is expected to, Peterson hasn't even named a starting QB yet.

Last  year  Boise  had Moore and Co...this year

Great chatter guys!  I read through every post and really, sincerely appreciate the feedback/discussion.  I'll respond later today, but as of now, I've recently become a government employee and my surperiors track every where I go online, so I can't be wandering gambling sites at work .  I'm leaving for work right now, but I'll get back with ya'll later 

Does that mean you're an inmate?


Like the pick Bense. Kinda figured thats the way you would go given the MSU D and new BSU personnel. Any thoughts to a Sparty pk/under teaser? Also being a Michigan guy, what do you think of my Sparty pk/Lions -2 teaser?


Bense

Great write-up Bense!!!  I really like the UNDEr here as well.  If I play it I'll play UNDER 1st half like usual.  The books have really squeezed most of the value out of this play though haven't they???

Great write up and agree GL

Thx for great contribution each year, one of the best

I want to know why in the hell everyone thinks Mich. State has a great defense? I mean if we are basing it off of last year. IS it because they held Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana under 7 points? When they played an offense that had a little creativity (a heartbeat) and could score some - what happend to that great D?

Notre Dame - 31 points

Wisconsin - 31 points

Wisconsin - 42 points

Georgia - 30 points

Michigan State having a top 10 defense (it's smoking mirrors to me.)

 

LonghornHoosier/bigvern - Nice info, great to hear from you both.  

So essentially shutting out Ohio State in Columbus is meaningless (OSU scored a garbage time TD with 30 seconds left)? Holding always-hyped Michigan to 14 points, with a ton of personal fouls, is not significant? What about holding to Nebraska to essentially 17 points, with ZERO offensive support (Nebraska got pretty much a pick-6, can't blame the D for that)? Or what about completely wrecking Iowa until prevent-D mode?

And in reality, ND only really scored 21 on the D- they got a fluke kick return D, and a pick-field goal. The Georgia game went into 3OT and they only put up 30.

Name any other defense in the country that didn't give up 24+ points a few times?

@ dustcakes.....Bama only gave up more than 14 once last year.  Pitched 3 shutouts, including the national championship game, and allowed 7 or less in 8 games .  So that's one example of a defense that didn't give up 24+ a few times.

ND only had 275 total yards of offense. 200 yards under its season average

Wisconsin averaged 44ppg and 470 yards per game.. MSU held em to 31 and 443 and 42 and 345

UGA averaged 32ppg and 409 yards.. MSU held em to 30 (in 3OT and 340 total yards

Don't kid yourself.. this is one of the best D's in the country

Should only be a better defense this year too.  All the talk from the players on the D is that this years squad is hungrier, and more physical.  Watched a few of the players interviews from after camp.  Makes me want to put the pads on again.

was actually thinking the small thing, BOL this season bense