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Bobs Wednesday Play

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Posted: #26
 
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Posted: #27
Hey Robb, how bout Florida State? Its crazy when you look at it since all the money is going to Florida and the spread grows... would sideing with the books be the correct play today?
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by STREET_SMART:

Hey Robb, how bout Florida State? Its crazy when you look at it since all the money is going to Florida and the spread grows... would sideing with the books be the correct play today?


When a line moves like that opposite the money flow, i generally stay away from the game.....but a trend i do notice with line movements like tonight is that as the game gets closer you will start to see the line move in favor of NC.....My thinking is that Vegas likes to get as Much money as it can on Fla St and then shifts the line in favor of NC  to get more money on NC......I have noticed when this does happen, it favors NC by a small percentage.....

This is a very small % in my decision on a game, but i do use this as a factor.......I am going to wait till at least 2:30PM before making my play........I am leaning NC very small though and whatever i do play will be a small play.....




Good Luck!!!!
 
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Posted: #29
So the ideal thing would be to grab UNC as of right now if you were to bet on it... if the line shifts in favor of UNC later on... that would translate in laying more chalk right?
 
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Posted: #30

on another note... all that mambo jumbo bullshit about Bowden and how they wanted it to be its last season and what not give me a bad feeling about this game... i dont think that FSU players are going to let that happen... losing 4 in a row. My feeling is that players step up today but I know UNc has a mother of a defense... so my best bet would be under.

 

BOL Robb hoping to get your other plays!!!

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by STREET_SMART:

So the ideal thing would be to grab UNC as of right now if you were to bet on it... if the line shifts in favor of UNC later on... that would translate in laying more chalk right?


No if you are going to bet UNC, wait and I do think the line will end at UNC -1.5......the only way I play a side tonight is if the line moves to 2 or less......
I know there is a trend of Dogs winning on Thursday's, but look at where the line opened.....UNC +1.......Vegas knows this trend, and has made Fla St the dog to lure more people to them, because of this trend......Trends are not a very good capping tool, and for some reason a Very high % of gamblers use trends in making a play.....Vegas is Rich, because of this.....Trends are broken by Vegas manipulating lines......

This is just my opinion and what I have came to a conclusion with all my years of Gambling and putting together my system.....


I will be making a small play tonight, but a little bigger on the total......


Good Luck!!!!!
 
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Posted: #32
UNC will use Fla St sub par run defense as a big advantage, and u will see a big ground assault, which will barring any broken plays, a very ball control type of game out of UNC.......

 
 
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Posted: #33

Time consuming plays... maybe 4 to 5 mins offense?? I dont see a 40 or 50 yd running td in this game... but pounding the offense as hard as you can will eventually give you the edge on the final score. My book has the over/under at 49.5 ... looks really difficult to see more than 7 tds scored in this game...

 
 
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