Early week 14 lines via DK Rutgers @ OSU -33.5 Minnesota @ NW -4.5 USC @ Oregon -9.5 MSU @ Iowa -16.5 Michigan -14 @ Maryland Nebraska @ Penn St -8.5 Illinois -9.5 @ Wisconsin Washington -10.5 @ UCLA
Nothing really jumps off the page immediately for me this week. Tough spot on the schedule in front of rivalry week. The one lean I would have would be Michigan -14 vs Maryland but the health of Jordan Marshall would be a huge factor in whether or not that play gets made. Michigan game vs NW is a perfect example of why the final score doesn't tell the full story. Out gain NW 496-245 and need a walk off FG because of a -5 TO margin & 2 missed FG's. Quietly a pretty descent performance minus the sloppiness with the ball which is obviously a huge problem. NW came into that game allowing only 340 yards per game on the season and Michigan cleared that by 156 yards, really put the clamps on defensively as well but again TO's in their own territory led to most of the points.
Here's some insane stats to highlight how crazy that was on Saturday. Since 1869, Saturday was the ONLY game where a team went 0-5 in the TO column and won the game outright. Over the past 25 years in over 15,000 contests less than 1% of teams win when TO margin is -5. I get it, the TO's are real and that won't fly against better competition but the talent is there and I think the underlying stats tell a little different story than the scoreboard that might provide some good value this... or next week
Some of other points of comparison with this common opponent - of any team on the schedule NW just gave up the most yards allowed all season, most first downs allowed, least amount of offensive yards and first downs all season. Pretty good sample size and schedule that includes Oregon, USC, Nebraska, UM which I have as 4 of the top 7 teams through 12 weeks. They're close - Bryce has shown flashes but poor decisions with the ball will be the undoing in the end. Jordan Marshall's health is an absolutely huge topic - although initial reports is he avoided anything major. Getting Haynes back would be a bonus at this point but the chances of seeing him at 100% is nearly 0.
No early plays so far this week but again point of my rant being don't let the final scores influence you too much week to week.... any given Saturday.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
All game picks: 30-31-2
B1G: 11-12-1
Props: 6-2
5-2 (2-1 B1G) last week, missed on the prop by a few yards so 0-1 there.
Early week 14 lines via DK Rutgers @ OSU -33.5 Minnesota @ NW -4.5 USC @ Oregon -9.5 MSU @ Iowa -16.5 Michigan -14 @ Maryland Nebraska @ Penn St -8.5 Illinois -9.5 @ Wisconsin Washington -10.5 @ UCLA
Nothing really jumps off the page immediately for me this week. Tough spot on the schedule in front of rivalry week. The one lean I would have would be Michigan -14 vs Maryland but the health of Jordan Marshall would be a huge factor in whether or not that play gets made. Michigan game vs NW is a perfect example of why the final score doesn't tell the full story. Out gain NW 496-245 and need a walk off FG because of a -5 TO margin & 2 missed FG's. Quietly a pretty descent performance minus the sloppiness with the ball which is obviously a huge problem. NW came into that game allowing only 340 yards per game on the season and Michigan cleared that by 156 yards, really put the clamps on defensively as well but again TO's in their own territory led to most of the points.
Here's some insane stats to highlight how crazy that was on Saturday. Since 1869, Saturday was the ONLY game where a team went 0-5 in the TO column and won the game outright. Over the past 25 years in over 15,000 contests less than 1% of teams win when TO margin is -5. I get it, the TO's are real and that won't fly against better competition but the talent is there and I think the underlying stats tell a little different story than the scoreboard that might provide some good value this... or next week
Some of other points of comparison with this common opponent - of any team on the schedule NW just gave up the most yards allowed all season, most first downs allowed, least amount of offensive yards and first downs all season. Pretty good sample size and schedule that includes Oregon, USC, Nebraska, UM which I have as 4 of the top 7 teams through 12 weeks. They're close - Bryce has shown flashes but poor decisions with the ball will be the undoing in the end. Jordan Marshall's health is an absolutely huge topic - although initial reports is he avoided anything major. Getting Haynes back would be a bonus at this point but the chances of seeing him at 100% is nearly 0.
No early plays so far this week but again point of my rant being don't let the final scores influence you too much week to week.... any given Saturday.
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