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ATC's Underdog Computer Picks : Week 10

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Posted: #1
Year Total:  29-9
Last Week:  8-2
 
Been working all Sunday/Monday/Tues morn getting the stats all put into the system, and checking them twice.  Here is what is getting spat out at me this week.
 
Thursday: 
               Virginia Tech (+2.5) vs Ga Tech:  VT 24 GT 18
 
Saturday: 
              Washington St (+14.5) vs Cal :  WSU 19 Cal 25
              Utah St. (+20.5) vs Fresno St.:  USU  24  FSU 37
              Fla State (+6.5) vs Boston College:  FSU 19  BC 14
              Colorado St. (+21) vs Brig. Young:   CSU 23  BYU 35
              Arizona (+2.5) vs UCLA:         AZ 28 UCLA 23
              Alabama (+7.5) vs LSU:        Bama 31 LSU 28
 
Predicting 3 SU dog winners.  Last week was 4-2 on SU dog winners.
 
Good luck all...hope you win all your bets whether on the underdogs or the favorites! 
 
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Posted: #2
I beeen looking at your picks but not playing them.. thinking of following u on some of them.. definately liking fsu, va tech, alabama.. dont know too m uch abou the others.. colorado st. has been so bad but 21 poins is a lot, .. good luck
 
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Posted: #3
Been watching also ATC. Best of Luck
 
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Posted: #4
BOL
 
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Hey ATC Like reading your thread.....I don't really tail anyone on my picks, but you've become one of the few I look at and tread lightly if I'm on the opposite side!!......Like your Dogs. I saw last week you posted a WVU/Rutgers score that showed WVU-6 covering the spread. Any other favorites your program shows covering?? Curious on Rut/Uconn Texas/OklSt NW/Iowa WF/Virginia or anyone that looks positive
 
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Thanks folks for reading.
 
Red - as for your questions: 
Uconn 29 , Rut 19  think the line is UCONN -3
Texas 31.2 , Ok St 30.7  line is Ok st +3   too close
Iowa 34, NW 30  , line is NW -1 i think, another too close
Wake 29, Virginia 16, line is VA +1.
 
Just remember, this program isn't near as accurate this year on favorites, at about 11-14-1 on it's picks from week 3 to week 9.  So tread lightly on those predictions. 
 
GL folks on all your picks.
 
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Posted: #7
ATC:
 
So basically you make a play when your software tells you a difference of more than 7 points in the Vegas line?? Am I right?
 
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Thanks for the info!! Yeah some of those do look too close....Glad to see the program likes Wake though, that was one of my top plays. Again always a good read and Thanks for all the leg work you do!!
 
 
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Gmo: Incorrect.  If you look at the UCLA/Ariz game it is only predicting a 5 point difference with a 2.5 point line.  There are many factors that i have to put into it and let it weigh all of them against each other. Like Pitt/Syr game.  It is predicting Syracuse 18 and Pitt 24 with a line of Pitt -12, but it doesn't fit all the criteria i tell it to, so it won't pop.  It just does what i tell it, but a lot faster than i can do it myself. 
 
Red:  and just an added note about that favorite record.  It makes a prediction on each game, but not all are picked of course.  The 11-14-1 record are on those that it picked.  I could probably go back and check what it did on all the rest of the games...but uh...i have a life somewhere.  GL on that Wake pick...the computer actually did pick that one as a favorite.
 
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GMO: I think i misunderstood what you were saying, because the UCLA/Ariz games does predict a 7.5 point value for Arizona since they get an additional 2.5 points.  They are not always 7 points, i actually i have it set to give me 6 points or better in value....meaning a team getting 1 point and with my formulas is projected to win by 5 points will pop for me as well.

 
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Posted: #11
Let's Go NOLES!!!
 
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Posted: #12
Thanks for the answer man, I like the picks
 
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Posted: #13
 
 
Thanks for your picks!  
 
 
 
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Posted: #14
Very impressive stuff. I'm currently developing my own software program to make picks. I've only got this year's stats, and last year's stats from week 4 until the last week. It's definately a work in progress. How many years of back data is your system tested against.
 
Keep up the good work.
 
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Posted: #15
GL  
 
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Posted: #16
 
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GREAT START1-0 FOR THE WEEK
You are a broken record. Keep it up.Can I pass your thread on to others.
 
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jlt, Flav, ND, Red GMO, dland, Kaplan, Tong and Stu -- Thanks for the best wishes, GL to each of you. 
 
Well, starting week 10 off with a win.  Let's hope the weekend comes out and makes us all some money.
 
GL All!!!
 
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Posted: #19
Kap...sorry missed your question.  I use 2 years of data. I have went back and put in 6 years of stats.  However, I cut it down to 2 years, because, in my opinion, what happened 4 or 5 years ago, doesn't play into how these guys are going to do today.  Bol to you on your program...believe me....trying to figure out a trend sucks. 
 
Tonga - Man you can pass this to anyone you want.  We are all here to give opinions and try to help each other make some money.  Is my record better than doctor bob?
 
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Posted: #20

Parlay / 50B76... 2007-11-01 12:49 $20.00 $142.31 $142.31 Win
NCAA Football/G- Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech: Under 40.5 (-110) 2007-11-01 21:45 Win
NCAA Football/G- (Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech) Virginia Tech Hokies: Point Spread +2.5 (-105) 2007-11-01 21:45 Win
NBA /G- HOU @ UTH: Over 193.5 (-110) 2007-11-01 22:30 Win

 

Straight wager / AE802...

 

2007-10-31 12:15

 

$34.68

 

$67.71

 

$67.71

 

Win

NCAA Football/G- (Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech) Virginia Tech Hokies: Point Spread +2.5 (-105) 2007-11-01 21:45 Win

 

And yes i do bet on my picks, though i am not the big money dropper that some folks are, i do believe in my work and what it produces.  GL all.

 
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Posted: #21
Always better when you are GETTING points. Most of my numbers in early games Saturday tell me favorites (some are heavy chalk, too). Haven't gotten to any of these yet but I will certainly compare notes. GL,
 
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Posted: #22
Hey sort of new here but love what you have done so far ATC. I dont really like to bet on more than 2-3 games a day, do you have any games youd rate higher than others that your computer spat out? Im hesitant to play anything against LSU because of their D and hesitant with FSU because their team hasnt improved much from last year. But you would know better than I do.
 
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Posted: #23
Aneb- I would say my favorite play this week is Va Tech +2.5
 
Okay...okay..a little late to say that, but I like all the picks.  I think the one that hits me as a good bet over the others is the Utah St. game.  They haven't lost a game all year by 20 points or more.  I think like 18 was the most. 
 
P-Rod - good luck laying that chalk.  I just think if you can find it, there is more value in betting the dogs.  BOL.
 
 
 
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Posted: #24
Heh yeah I hit the Va Tech game but my college football betting is pretty streaky when i pick my own. Can do college BB but football always throws me for a loop. Anyway thanks for the advice, BOL
 
 
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Posted: #25
ATC, Tell me why you like bama.  I'll be at the game.  I want bama to win. 
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