ARKANSAS @ MISSOURI: A Black Friday TROLL-SMASHING Special, from me to those who ENJOY Write-Ups!

2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss, be it political prop bet or standard loss, while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same. The formula to shame and run people off this site is the same.

They want to attack that good cappers. They want to come after them and hit them hard during losing streaks, when they are the most vulnerable. If you hit 70% for two years, they bask in the glory of a single loss, even though it's inevitable. They want to criticize you with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation.).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

Bizarre isn't it? That they are moral gatekeepers. It's true. They do this. I should know. I've been subject to it for a decade.

You can win. You can post and win a ton  of money for a lot of posters. But DON'T get to high and mighty! They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard. Don't show any confidence in any pick! Don't use the word 'expertise' or else you are a self-proclaimed 'expert'!

And they are gatekeepers because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even modern warfare on the battlefield or football field. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset among leaders of countries, be it dictators or democratically-elected ones.

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch!

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint with a mere useless piece of steel. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls and hyper-masculinity leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

SIX BIG REASONS TO BACK ARKASAS

Let's look at what is going on off the field before we look at what is going on, on the field to solidify this play.

Imagine if I told you Arkansas opened at -7.5 and you didn't know any of the following. None of it. Think about how you may have played Ark -7.5 anyway, just given what Mizzou is this year (a total dumpster fire) without what I'm about to tell you, and think about how you could possibly play Missouri under any circumstances after hearing this.

1. The Ultimate Bulletin Board Material

Let's just get right to it. You want the team you are backing motivated by what an opposing player said? You got it right here. And it's golden.

A Missouri Linebacker Eric Biesel, their leading tackler the last 2 out of 3 games (ironically, on a defense that gave up SIXTY THREE to Tennessee last week), said the following:

"Whether they decide to get on a plane and show up at our stadium on Friday, that's their call," Beisel told reporters, according to the Columbia Daily Tribune. "I'll tell you what, if they do decide to come, it's going to be hectic. Our fans are going to bring it, and we're going to bring it. It'd be a mistake, showing up in Columbia, Missouri.

"We're going to take some aggression out on Ar-kansas this Friday, this Black Friday. It's going to be a black-out game. They're not going to see what's coming. If they do decide to show up, like I said, it'll be a huge mistake.”

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native also said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

This team is 3-7. This team just gave up 600+ yards the previous week in a near 30 point loss. This team is dead last in the SEC in total defense and he said...that.

If a player from Alabama said this, it would catch my eye. Here? I'll lay every point after hearing this given I'd be considering Arkansas anyway on this play. Of course, there are other reasons for the cap itself but this is an incredible motivator for Arkansas.

These comments were so inflammatory, Missouri HC Barry Odom had to have Beisel personally apologize for them to Arkansas HC Beilema (likely because of a potential on the field scuffle pre-game or during the game).

Have the Arkansas players forgiven these comments after the apology? Not only haven't they, they have openly said Beilema has addressed them in the locker room, as in, "let your play do the talking on Friday." That is EXACTLY what I like to hear when it comes to bulletin board material motivating players. Forthright and effective. Let your play do the talking. We have to get over a spread of 8 and we want Arkansas to pour it on. And there is no reason after these comments, that we think they'll back off.

And we even have video of what the players think.

Want to hear how the players are treating this? The first two comments are benign and then you see how the players are taking this. I suggest you pop this into your browser and see it for yourself. It's your money, and needless to say, it's not pretty if you already locked a bet in on Missouri.

https://www.wholehogsports.com/videos/2016/nov/22/13156/

Now how, after this, if you knew nothing about this game, do you say "I like Missouri with the points here!"???

Now let's look at what's on the field:

I appreciate the gesture. I do not check my mail because the scripts on this site run for a minute just to access my inbox. I don't have another minute to give to a site that already has slowed down immensely over the years with all the advertising. So I didn't see the PM's.

Thanks for the offer but I'll just be posting here.

P.S. And thanks for acknowledging the "Rex Ryan will get you home" angle, my most unpopular by far, because of this forum's intense dislike of him and his brother. But one that hits with an enormous success rate.

Scott max - nice additions Week

I don't see motivation mattering in this game.  This Arkansas team has had plenty of motivation to get up in big games and they haven't competed

LSU has no QB.  They aren't a good offensive team.  And they struggle this year because teams load up the box.  Arkansas knew they couldn't throw and loaded up the box and still gave up 8 yards a carry.  On their home field right after LSU was banged up the week before.  That's pathetic.

56 points to Auburn. People jumped on Auburn because of that game.  Then they got shut out by Georgia.  What happened?  Well they run the ball well but have no QB.  Didn't matter vs Arkansas.

NO shame in losing by 30 to Bama.  But the last 2 meetings they gave up 14 points and 20 something last year.  And Bama had a defensive score last year.  I bring this up because this isn't the Arkansas team you know and love that competes every week and gets better at the end of the season.  There is a big sample size to show this D is only a small step above Missouri which I acknowledge is insanely bad.

The Mizzou running back situation will hurt.  But a big hole to run through is a big hole to run through.  It is the most overrated position on the field.

They may score 60 on Mizzou.  But what bothers me is that Mizzou is highly likely to get at least 30 in this game.  Maybe in the forties.  And then you're banking on Arkansas getting in the fifties.  It's easy to predict a team scoring 40 in a lot of these games, but whether that team gets 50 or 60 is a bit arbitrary.  And so if I'm counting on giving up at least 34-35 I can't lay 8 in that spot.  With that being said, Arkansas can hand it off every time and score a boat load, but if Missouri gets a few lucky stops which I think they're capable you'll have to really sweat it out.

To me, -8 vs -12 or 13 matters but it's not extremely significant.  Winning by 7 loses either way.  Winning by 13 ties or wins either way.  The ten number obviously changes, but that's the only common number in between.  If it was a four point difference between a different point interval, I would feel stronger about.

Look, maybe me challenging this play will bring you good luck.  I don't think it's a bad play.  I just wonder if anyone is gonna punt in this game, and if that doesn't happen Mizzou covers.  Good news for you is they have no kicker, but then again maybe that is a bad thing and they'll have four downs to score anywhere inside the 50 every time. 

How much do you think Missou is scoring here?  Out of curiosity.  Look if you think Arkansas gets 60, I get the play.  I just have a lower bound estimate of Missou with 31 and upper bound 45 so I think they need 50+ here.  If I thought 40 would do it I'd love the play.  Missou got 36 at Tennessee last week before the fourth started.  Same defense as Arkansas and that was a road game.