ARKANSAS @ MISSOURI: A Black Friday TROLL-SMASHING Special, from me to those who ENJOY Write-Ups!

2016 Record: 31-13 (>70%)

This ones for all the trolls who incessantly whine and complain and harp on one loss, be it political prop bet or standard loss, while winner after winner gets posted in thread after thread.

Trolls are a unique bunch. They are one and the same.

They are much like a glass of water poured into an ocean. While the glass of water may be unique, after you pour it, it assimilates into the whole.

So the same trolls that ran League Capper off this site and so many others (and even MrBator who likely, in part, didn't want to put up with them), are not the same ones you see today.

But they function the same. The attacks are very much the same. The formula to shame and run people off this site is the same.

They want to attack that good cappers. They want to come after them and hit them hard during losing streaks, when they are the most vulnerable. If you hit 70% for two years, they bask in the glory of a single loss, even though it's inevitable. They want to criticize you with unsubstantiated claims (i.e., you faked your record! is a famous one, but is never researched by the troll making the accusation.).

But really, at the heart of trolling, is that you aren't within the confines of their "Capping humility code".

Bizarre isn't it? That they are moral gatekeepers. It's true. They do this. I should know. I've been subject to it for a decade.

You can win. You can post and win a ton  of money for a lot of posters. But DON'T get to high and mighty! They will be the arbiters of what that level of alleged arrogance is and THEY will keep it in check. They are the gatekeepers in this regard. Don't show any confidence in any pick! Don't use the word 'expertise' or else you are a self-proclaimed 'expert'!

And they are gatekeepers because they do not want your status superseding theirs. Because their masculinity is threated. This is quite common among men with low self-worth but more importantly, athletes.

Hyper-masculinity leads to altercations, first verbal and physical and then even modern warfare on the battlefield or football field. Thousands, and even millions of lives can be lost to appeal to this hyper-masculine mindset among leaders of countries, be it dictators or democratically-elected ones.

And it is right here on covers. When someone gets too confident?The gatekeepers will knock them down a notch!

But their is a panacea to this. Winning. When you win, they have no ammo. You have essentially emptied their oozy and they stand useless in the face of their complaint with a mere useless piece of steel. So that is what we will do. We will win.

And this lead-in about trolls and hyper-masculinity leads us to our pick, and the primary focus of this game.

The pick:

ARKANSAS -8 over Missouri 

SIX BIG REASONS TO BACK ARKASAS

Let's look at what is going on off the field before we look at what is going on, on the field to solidify this play.

Imagine if I told you Arkansas opened at -7.5 and you didn't know any of the following. None of it. Think about how you may have played Ark -7.5 anyway, just given what Mizzou is this year (a total dumpster fire) without what I'm about to tell you, and think about how you could possibly play Missouri under any circumstances after hearing this.

1. The Ultimate Bulletin Board Material

Let's just get right to it. You want the team you are backing motivated by what an opposing player said? You got it right here. And it's golden.

A Missouri Linebacker Eric Biesel, their leading tackler the last 2 out of 3 games (ironically, on a defense that gave up SIXTY THREE to Tennessee last week), said the following:

"Whether they decide to get on a plane and show up at our stadium on Friday, that's their call," Beisel told reporters, according to the Columbia Daily Tribune. "I'll tell you what, if they do decide to come, it's going to be hectic. Our fans are going to bring it, and we're going to bring it. It'd be a mistake, showing up in Columbia, Missouri.

"We're going to take some aggression out on Ar-kansas this Friday, this Black Friday. It's going to be a black-out game. They're not going to see what's coming. If they do decide to show up, like I said, it'll be a huge mistake.”

Beisel intentionally mispronounced "Arkansas" as "Ar-kansas" three times. The St. Louis native also said he was pulling a hoax and stringing the Razorbacks along in the recruiting process back in high school.

This team is 3-7. This team just gave up 600+ yards the previous week in a near 30 point loss. This team is dead last in the SEC in total defense and he said...that.

If a player from Alabama said this, it would catch my eye. Here? I'll lay every point after hearing this given I'd be considering Arkansas anyway on this play. Of course, there are other reasons for the cap itself but this is an incredible motivator for Arkansas.

These comments were so inflammatory, Missouri HC Barry Odom had to have Beisel personally apologize for them to Arkansas HC Beilema (likely because of a potential on the field scuffle pre-game or during the game).

Have the Arkansas players forgiven these comments after the apology? Not only haven't they, they have openly said Beilema has addressed them in the locker room, as in, "let your play do the talking on Friday." That is EXACTLY what I like to hear when it comes to bulletin board material motivating players. Forthright and effective. Let your play do the talking. We have to get over a spread of 8 and we want Arkansas to pour it on. And there is no reason after these comments, that we think they'll back off.

And we even have video of what the players think.

Want to hear how the players are treating this? The first two comments are benign and then you see how the players are taking this. I suggest you pop this into your browser and see it for yourself. It's your money, and needless to say, it's not pretty if you already locked a bet in on Missouri.

https://www.wholehogsports.com/videos/2016/nov/22/13156/

Now how, after this, if you knew nothing about this game, do you say "I like Missouri with the points here!"???

Now let's look at what's on the field:

2. Missouri is fractured, inept, and spiraling out of control on defense and is it's offense won't be able to pick up the slack.

This defense was good last year. They brought in Drew Lock at QB, a true freshman, after Mauk was dismissed,  to give him the growing pains needed to survive and progress THIS season. The defense did it's part to keep them in games. 

They held Georgia to 9 last year in a loss. BYU to 16 in a victory. Tennessee beat them 19-8. Teams didn't score on them.

When you laid points to Mizzou, you had to be careful. They came to play on D and their D kept them in it.

Fast forward to this year:

63 given up to Tennessee as noted

31 to a South Carolina team that can't score on anyone. For comparison South Carolina only put up 34 on UMass at home!

51 to Middle Tennessee State AT HOME

40 to Florida, another team that has big problem putting points on the board

I could give you a lot of numbers about their offense and defense. They are mostly terrible. But the fact is, Drew Lock, their guy who lost all those games at the end of last year simply hasn't progressed as they expected. He is a compiler. Two 5 TD games have come against Delaware State and Eastern Michigan. 10 TD's against an FCS team (and a bad one at that) and what is an FBS team that is no threat to any average competition. Those games really bolster Lock's numbers and the competition there is far from meaningful.

While these numbers still have gone up the past 3 games, they simply aren't good enough to cover here with 4TD's and 4 INT's in the past 3 games. The pundits will say he ranks first among SEC QB's. Folks, WATCH HIM PLAY. He's a compiler. Makes bad decisions. He is still very green and hasn't lead this team to one victory against a team of worth in any start in his career. Arkansas is a team of worth. He won't lead this team to victory so we need only worry about the spread.

And Lock is going to be in trouble because of the following.

This is what was said before the last game:

During a Monday news conference, Tigers coach Barry Odom revealed quarterback Drew Lock isn’t fully healthy heading into Saturday’s game. However, the sophomore is slated to play as of now.

Nothing was disclosed as to why Odom said this but he never addressed it afterwards and we still don't know if he is 100%.

But of course, it gets even worse for Mizzou backers. I'd want my QB at 100% after hearing this:

with you on this one Scal - good luck to us! 

3. RB Demarea Crockett was suspended for the season finale after an arrest.

I posted this earlier in the week. He set a Missouri rookie rushing record with 225 yards against Tennessee and the Volunteers still beat them 63-37. Now take those 225 yards away and think about what the score would have been. Well we are taking them away for this Arkansas game.

4. Bizarro Line Movement

Now for the kicker capping-wise. I get push notifications of CFB news on my phone. I knew about the exact moment Crockett was suspended. I checked the line on 5Dimes. The line was -9 Missouri before the markets could react.

I checked 3 hours later. Amazingly, the line had returned to the opening line of -7.5 after he was suspended!

Someone was pouring money in on the Mizzou side AFTER Crockett was suspended! And this is with an offense that again, has problems when up against a team of good caliber, and a defense that is downright embarrassing at times.

And the line has only moved a mere .5 pt to -8 after the comments in from the Missouri Linebacker in Bullet #1 above! Reallllly....? Who here will agree those comments are worth .5 pts ATS against Missouri? Folks, they are worth a hell of a lot more than that.

So a win here will be a win against the alleged "Vegas Knows" theory which I love to fade. Why? Because if you cap a game completely YOU know more than Vegas. End of story. 

But I have even more to take Arkansas here.

5. This team still hasn't overcome it's internal turmoil from last year.

A short but relevant point. There were major protests on the Missouri campus that divided this team. So intense were they, the University President resigned due to them last year.

You all know where I stand on them but that is not the point of this cap.

When it comes to capping this team, the fallout of last year has carried over to this year and still lingers in the locker room, among the coaching staff, and among a divided fan base.

That fan base has not supported this team as ardently as last year in part, because they are terrible and also in part, because of their views about the protests. And this is a home game for Mizzou. That certainly waters down the home field advantage and the solidarity of this team, which is integral to winning, especially against good competition.

But there is even more for an Arkansas side...

6. Missouri has an NCAA investigation looming and it could extend to this football team.

Short and sweet: A tutor came out today and said she took ENTIRE COURSES for student-athletes.

What is the FIRST team you would say she took them for if asked? Yes, the football team.

The NCAA has said it will now investigate.

Now think about this: There could be some star Missouri players who heard this news broke today who may have their career ended or be subject to major suspensions.

This is conjecture since this news just broke but how in the hell will those players, if involved, give 100% in this game which means NOTHING to this team. This is just the possibility this could be true, but even the possibility would have me shivering if I have Missouri locked in, even with the points.

This game is COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS in a lost season. Senior Day? Whatever. This team has been a black scar on the University this year with it's performance. This was once a proud over-achieving team. No more.

I can now talk about how much Arkansas has to offer on the other side of the ball. I can give you stats. I can impress you. They are not all-world but they will drop a TON of points on you if they play a sieve of a D (they are here) and now you have motivated them beyond belief.

Let's just give you ONE gem: Missouri just put up 661 yards on Mississippi State, the FOURTH highest in SCHOOL History.

Oh and Rawleigh Williams put up 202 yard with a 12.3 YPC average last game. 12.3. How will this D stop him? HE has an SEC best 6 100+ yard games.

YES, Missouri put up 700+ yards on Tennessee BEFORE all the above but they still lost by almost THIRTY! That is INSANE! I'll bet that may be the biggest point disparity in a loss with that amount of yards in a loss in NCAA HISTORY.

Again Missouri is 116th in the nation in total D out of 128 giving up 447 yards per game. And their schedule does not include titans on offense. They have made average to below average offensive teams look like the Rams of the Faulk/Warner Greatest Show on Turf era. And this is right when Arkansas is turning up the heat offensively.

Worried about Austin Allen? 300 yards and a 60%+ completion rate in a bounce-back game last week. How in the world will Mizzou be motivated here in a half-empty stadium with all that swirls around them in a nothing game!???

Razorbacks do give up 500+ and 36+ a game so you will hear the "It'll be a shoot-out" comments "I'd be careful" (as always) but THAT IS WHY we did this write-up! Anyone can say those things without a cap. With a cap, they are far more watered down. That is the point of a CAP!

Now do you really need me to go any further after reading the above. SIX reference points to lay the number.

A Black Friday TROLL-SMASHER Special. Just for you.

Typo:

Let's just give you ONE gem: Arkansas just put up 661 yards on Mississippi State, the FOURTH highest in SCHOOL History.

Teddy LongHorn

Your record clearly reflects the attention to detail and research that goes into each pick. Love the write-up, wiill be tailing (again).

Really well written. Thanks for all your help, never even looked at the game and if I had, I'm sure I would have taken the wrong team.  Thanks and have a Great Thanksgiving

Really well written. Thanks for all your help, never even looked at the game and if I had, I'm sure I would have taken the wrong team.  Thanks and have a Great Thanksgiving

I'll get ya to the store AFTER Black Friday ends with this one, so you can leisurely pay FULL price and not join the sales mosh pit tomorrow with those maniacs.

Keep in mind also that Bielema loves to run up the score.  If Arkansas has a chance to, they will pour it on.  I am a huge Badger fan and Bielema was notorious for running it up on lesser oppononents, which Missouri is in this situation.  The over in this game will also be a solid bet, as has all Arkansas games this season.

Hi Scal,

Love the write-up and pick. Happy Thanksgiving bro, and thanks for the pick.

Ark beat Mizzou last year at home but in their only visit to Columbia 2 years back they led 14-3 in the 3Q and were outscored 0-18 the rest of the way. Hopefully Ark won't forget THAT either.

When I looked at this game, the only thing I looked at is the total. 

Arkansas is a disgrace on defense.  Did you watch that LSU game?  They can't beat any team with a decent run game.  Period.  They offer ZERO resistance to teams that can run.  And they can't even stop the run somewhat on their home field.  That's why I can't back Arkansas under any circumstance.  If their defense was average, it's a no brainer.

Now they can cover.  But I feel like this has to be another 52-38 game.  Guys, this run defense is by far the worse Bielema has put out there.  Maybe they were this bad his first year.  But if you just run 3 times in a row they can't stop you.  They can't go more than 2 plays without giving up a 7 to 8 yard run.  Look what they gave up to Miss St.

Missouri will give up a ton of points, but this match up is like laying points with Oregon at Cal.  Honestly, Arkansas pisses me off.  Because the bookies undervalue how good they are on offense this year.  I want to bet this team.  They have a pretty good passing QB and run the ball, but they get completely gashed on the run.  As improved as they are on offense, they declined twice as much on defense.  Any defensive stop is just luck.  You feel like they need a fumble to stop someone.

So the question is Missouri that bad that they can't keep a game close vs an Arkansas team that got blown out by Bama and LSU at home and gave up 40 to Miss St. I have no problem with them losing those games.  But they were at home and lost by 20+ in each.  And those are 2 teams they competed very well with the last 2 years.  This defense has no fight in it and I don't trust them. 

Don't get me wrong.  Arkansas is a better team because they are much more offensively efficient.  But it's an 8 point game on the road.  How high can you really make this line?  12 or 13?  I don't see much value.  Tennessee won by 26 last week but it was a one point game on the road in the fourth and they had a pick six.  That was a 10-14 point game going back and fourth.  At home that game is closer.  And Tennessee is a good team to compare Arkansas to because they are very similar.  They are pretty much equal on both sides of the ball.

Now in all due respect, this is your play and respect it.  I'm just surprised this is the one game you picked and question if you're aware of how bad this run defense is.  Arkansas may win by 14 I just think this line isn't underpriced by much given how bad the Arkansas D is.  The projected score is 41-33.  The only thing that makes me lean Arkansas is Missouri is a true loser team that makes mistakes on offense at bad times and does not finish drives often. 

Good luck though you've obv hit some plays this year.

I appreciate the gesture. I do not check my mail because the scripts on this site run for a minute just to access my inbox. I don't have another minute to give to a site that already has slowed down immensely over the years with all the advertising. So I didn't see the PM's.

Thanks for the offer but I'll just be posting here.

P.S. And thanks for acknowledging the "Rex Ryan will get you home" angle, my most unpopular by far, because of this forum's intense dislike of him and his brother. But one that hits with an enormous success rate.

Scott max - nice additions Week

Arkansas is a disgrace on defense.  Did you watch that LSU game?  They can't beat any team with a decent run game.  Period.  They offer ZERO resistance to teams that can run.  And they can't even stop the run somewhat on their home field.  That's why I can't back Arkansas under any circumstance.  If their defense was average, it's a no brainer.

That is why I brought up the fact their leading rusher was suspended. If you fear a team running on you, losing your star RB will be a problem.

And let's not compare LSU pounding Ark. LSU is a team of worth on offense ESPECIALLY with the new coaching staff and rejuvenated O.

Missouri is the true disgrace on D. 51 points at home to MIddle Tennessee State. Are you fu**ing kidding me. No Mizzou team of worth in the past would have let a team like that skewer them. NOT ONE. 

Don't let ONE game shape your perception of a team and a play. And listen, they gave up 38 to LSU. Missouri gave up about that much to SOUTH CAROLINA which is mind-boggling.

So the question is Missouri that bad that they can't keep a game close vs an Arkansas team that got blown out by Bama and LSU at home and gave up 40 to Miss St. I have no problem with them losing those games.  But they were at home and lost by 20+ in each.  And those are 2 teams they competed very well with the last 2 years.  This defense has no fight in it and I don't trust them. 

You're not seriously bringing up getting hammered by what is the most dominant Bama team in the legendary Saban-era.

That shouldn't even be typed. Losing to Bama should not even be in this thread for argumentation. 

Don't get me wrong.  Arkansas is a better team because they are much more offensively efficient.  But it's an 8 point game on the road.  How high can you really make this line?  12 or 13?  I don't see much value.  Tennessee won by 26 last week but it was a one point game on the road in the fourth and they had a pick six.  That was a 10-14 point game going back and fourth.  At home that game is closer.  And Tennessee is a good team to compare Arkansas to because they are very similar.  They are pretty much equal on both sides of the ball.

If you don't see the value after:

1) Bulletin board material where players have directly insinuated they will use it as motivation

2) Missouri losing their star RB

3) Ark putting up its fourth highest yardage total in team history last week and this Mizzou D is WORSE than that one

4) The looming NCAA investigation that takes coaching staff time away from preparation because of media intervention and the potential to rattle current players on the roster.

If you don't think all of that gets this line from 8 to 11/12/13, then I can offer nothing more.

Tennessee put up SIXTY THREE. I don't care if it's a one point game with 2 minutes left. They dropped about as high a point total in regulation that is possible if you are not Michigan against Rutgers. End of story. That speaks volumes about this Mizzou D.

Now in all due respect, this is your play and respect it.  I'm just surprised this is the one game you picked and question if you're aware of how bad this run defense is.  Arkansas may win by 14 I just think this line isn't underpriced by much given how bad the Arkansas D is.  The projected score is 41-33.  The only thing that makes me lean Arkansas is Missouri is a true loser team that makes mistakes on offense at bad times and does not finish drives often. 

It's not the one game. I will have one or two more on Saturday. This is a holiday week so I had time to cap more than I used to and found this game very attractive.

I was actually capping ASU vs. Arizona all day and started to tap into this game and the more I did, the better spot I saw it was.

I don't see motivation mattering in this game.  This Arkansas team has had plenty of motivation to get up in big games and they haven't competed

LSU has no QB.  They aren't a good offensive team.  And they struggle this year because teams load up the box.  Arkansas knew they couldn't throw and loaded up the box and still gave up 8 yards a carry.  On their home field right after LSU was banged up the week before.  That's pathetic.

56 points to Auburn. People jumped on Auburn because of that game.  Then they got shut out by Georgia.  What happened?  Well they run the ball well but have no QB.  Didn't matter vs Arkansas.

NO shame in losing by 30 to Bama.  But the last 2 meetings they gave up 14 points and 20 something last year.  And Bama had a defensive score last year.  I bring this up because this isn't the Arkansas team you know and love that competes every week and gets better at the end of the season.  There is a big sample size to show this D is only a small step above Missouri which I acknowledge is insanely bad.

The Mizzou running back situation will hurt.  But a big hole to run through is a big hole to run through.  It is the most overrated position on the field.

They may score 60 on Mizzou.  But what bothers me is that Mizzou is highly likely to get at least 30 in this game.  Maybe in the forties.  And then you're banking on Arkansas getting in the fifties.  It's easy to predict a team scoring 40 in a lot of these games, but whether that team gets 50 or 60 is a bit arbitrary.  And so if I'm counting on giving up at least 34-35 I can't lay 8 in that spot.  With that being said, Arkansas can hand it off every time and score a boat load, but if Missouri gets a few lucky stops which I think they're capable you'll have to really sweat it out.

To me, -8 vs -12 or 13 matters but it's not extremely significant.  Winning by 7 loses either way.  Winning by 13 ties or wins either way.  The ten number obviously changes, but that's the only common number in between.  If it was a four point difference between a different point interval, I would feel stronger about.

Look, maybe me challenging this play will bring you good luck.  I don't think it's a bad play.  I just wonder if anyone is gonna punt in this game, and if that doesn't happen Mizzou covers.  Good news for you is they have no kicker, but then again maybe that is a bad thing and they'll have four downs to score anywhere inside the 50 every time. 

How much do you think Missou is scoring here?  Out of curiosity.  Look if you think Arkansas gets 60, I get the play.  I just have a lower bound estimate of Missou with 31 and upper bound 45 so I think they need 50+ here.  If I thought 40 would do it I'd love the play.  Missou got 36 at Tennessee last week before the fourth started.  Same defense as Arkansas and that was a road game.