Posted:
#1
Last week
Overall: 
6-14 (-8.2 units)
6-14 (-8.2 units) sides: 6-12 (-6.6 units) 
ML parlays: 0-2 (1.6 units)
totals: 0-0
YTD:
overall: 64-71-3 (-17.6 units)
sides: 59-64-2 (-16.8 units)
totals: 7-3-1 (+3.4 units)
player props: 0-1 (-1.3 units)
ML parlays: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
Sometimes, you get your ass handed to you so bad, all you can do is laugh. Obviously, I'm not getting back into the black this year. However, perhaps this is arrogance on my part, but I still think I have good thoughts to share, so I'll keep posting. Join the discussion, don't tail the plays.
However, last week was a wake up call. Grabbing early lines that differ from where you cap the games works great for some people. Wahoo and nostra seem to do just fine with that as a main strategy. But it's not my thing. I really didn't have a great read on things last week, but the initial leans that I posted went 3-4, which is a hell of a lot better than 6-12. So no more grabbing early lines unless it's one that I already have on my list of leans. Hopefully, this additional discipline will allow me to limit my number of plays and prevent disaster weeks like that last one. If I can make a couple units a week from here on out, I can do from really red to kinda pinkish, and then regroup for next season. But none of this "20 plays a week" nonsense. Unless I see 20 spots that I really friggin' love.
Early thoughts on this week:
*MSU is a play in Kentucky at under 7. Kentucky is terrible.
*Indiana is a highly underrated home dog, and Northwestern is a terrible favorite. Match made in heaven, if the line is right.
*Could Iowa State be in a better spot right now? I really do think this team is not terrible, and Texas Tech is ripe for the picking.
*Louisville's defense keeps them in games, and last week opens up huge value playing against 'Cuse.
*UNLV. . . yes, that UNLV. They're markedly better at home, and Colorado State is awful away. The home team has won three straight in this series by an average of 3 TDs. Love to get the Rebs as a dog.
*Marshall isn't half bad. This is the time to play against UAB. Also may look at the under.
*UCF. I still think Memphis is worth fading, last week notwithstanding.
*Will bite on Notre Dame again if it's under 10. They learned how to play the option since their last loss to Navy.
*ULM should bounce back against a WKU team off three straight wins (two upsets)
*North Texas is the Sun Belt UNLV. Look at them at home, look to fade them away. Arkansas State should roll.
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