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All you need for NCAAF is MrHeadache...Central Michigan vs. Ball State

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Why would Dan LeFevour look ahead to N Illinois when he has a game to play on national television that may influence a majority of NFL VIP's regarding his draft status which directly affects his financial status? I can respect your play with Ball State but don't be misguided with this nonsense.


The only things that are misguided is that because a player is an NFL prospect he will instantly up his game to impress scouts for nationally televised games.  How's that working for Jevan Snead, Jimmy Clausen, the list goes on and on.  I am sure that star defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul wanted to "impress the scouts" last Friday night before a national audience, but alas he had to rely on his teammates as well and wasn't able to instantly up his game just because of the circumstance of a nationally televised game as his South Florida Bulls got destroyed by Rutgers and guess what, he is still every bit the NFL prospect today as he was before that game last week. 

And trust me, when they are discussing good ole Dan around draft time, they won't be referencing a random November mid-week game against Ball St. as to the reason why someone would draft him.  It will be the totality of his career and the all important combines. 
 
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Posted: #52
like ball st too
 
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Posted: #53

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:


The only things that are misguided is that because a player is an NFL prospect he will instantly up his game to impress scouts for nationally televised games.  How's that working for Jevan Snead, Jimmy Clausen, the list goes on and on.  I am sure that star defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul wanted to "impress the scouts" last Friday night before a national audience, but alas he had to rely on his teammates as well and wasn't able to instantly up his game just because of the circumstance of a nationally televised game as his South Florida Bulls got destroyed by Rutgers and guess what, he is still every bit the NFL prospect today as he was before that game last week. 

And trust me, when they are discussing good ole Dan around draft time, they won't be referencing a random November mid-week game against Ball St. as to the reason why someone would draft him.  It will be the totality of his career and the all important combines. 

Thanks for the insight...gl

 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I would lay 5-1 that if someone went back and audited this season record keeping they would find errors that mysteriously are in his favor.  Oh - and also posting the best lines on every game....

Its called tout math.  When you are tyring to sell picks, you do this type of thing.

Waiting for the "I forgot to update my record reply..."

Yeah Van I know for a fact he doesn't include the juice in his unit count.  spreadconsultants...com

 
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Posted: #55

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:


The only things that are misguided is that because a player is an NFL prospect he will instantly up his game to impress scouts for nationally televised games.  How's that working for Jevan Snead, Jimmy Clausen, the list goes on and on.  I am sure that star defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul wanted to "impress the scouts" last Friday night before a national audience, but alas he had to rely on his teammates as well and wasn't able to instantly up his game just because of the circumstance of a nationally televised game as his South Florida Bulls got destroyed by Rutgers and guess what, he is still every bit the NFL prospect today as he was before that game last week. 

And trust me, when they are discussing good ole Dan around draft time, they won't be referencing a random November mid-week game against Ball St. as to the reason why someone would draft him.  It will be the totality of his career and the all important combines. 

I just want add although Dan is a very good college QB I dont see this guy having the arm strength to be successful in the NFL. Alot of his throws although accurate look like ducks!!! He's got no mustard on the ball.

 
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Posted: #56

gotta respect someone with the discipline to go against the team he just won with who came back with 6 unanswered TDs after falling behind.....I know how tempting it must be to jump all over them again the next week, especially against such a weak sister.....

was thinking CMU but you've caused me to re-think......

 

 
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Posted: #57
When will people realize that  N. Illinois is a team that RUNS, RUNS, RUNS, and RUNS SOME MORE???


I could get into the argument, but people are basing their Ball St play on the fact that they hung with N. Illinois.....an NIU team that is NOTHING like CMU. C. Michigan will throw all over this Ball St defense tonight. Oh, and if for some reason they don't, do you expect their 109th ranked offense to put up enough points on CMU's defense to stay within the number?
 
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Posted: #58
both sides make sense, no need for name calling and that stuff tho- think i'll heed both sides and PASS on this play tonite---BOL guys
 
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Posted: #59
I think no matter how this game ends up, no one will be truly surprised. Could easily be a blow out as well as a field goal kinda game
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by freeman333_2005:

I love how people try to give you hell....Why dont they just shut up if they dont like your pics!!!

BOL tonight!!



Because most cappers in here aren't morons like you. Smart ones don't just tail people, they ask questions, and have a dialogue. Then they make a choice. Try it sometime....doubt you will.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by jhonea999:

Yeah Van I know for a fact he doesn't include the juice in his unit count.  spreadconsultants...com



I don't know much about this Headache kid... but from what I've seen he is up a lot of units.  I guess what I came on to say is juice really isn't a big deal if you use sportsbook sites where they don't take a lot of juice for your picks.  Also, if he is up that many units I'm sure if you bet right you still should be up a lot of money even factoring juice.  That's my input and hope all is well and BOL to everyone!!!


Later P4L14
 
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Posted: #62
GL MrHeadache
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #63
Central Michigan
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by pickem4life14:



I don't know much about this Headache kid... but from what I've seen he is up a lot of units.  I guess what I came on to say is juice really isn't a big deal if you use sportsbook sites where they don't take a lot of juice for your picks.  Also, if he is up that many units I'm sure if you bet right you still should be up a lot of money even factoring juice.  That's my input and hope all is well and BOL to everyone!!!


Later P4L14

Understandable with sites like matchbook that you would have minimal juice.  With that said though... you still pay some juice at matchbook which can come into play in the long run.  In the long run which I am very concerned with, juice can be the most important thing to consider.  To make the following math simple i will use -110 lines in the following.  If you are winning at a rate of 51% betting into -110 lines (with 20 cents of juice) you are losing money in the long run.  You have to hit approximately 53% while betting into -110 to be profitable.  He may say he is up 84 units (or whatever he says) but with juice he may actually only be up 70 units.  You may say oh thats no big deal, he is still up.  But the more plays you add to the record the more the juice affects the units +/-... lets look at an example, assume all plays are 1 unit.

Over 100 plays he is 60 - 40 so he is +16 units including juice and +20 units not including juice.  Only a difference of 4 units, no biggie right.

Over 1000 plays he is 600 - 400 so he is +160 units including juice and +200 units not including juice. 

Over 10,000 plays he is 6000 - 4000 so he is +1600 units including juice and +2000 units not including juice.  

As you make more and more plays over a lifetime.  Not including juice in your calculation can make a huge difference in whether or not you are profiting.  I apologize for using such a simple example above but thats how simple yet important juice is!!!  It is the edge the book has over us and the edge we must over come to be successful.    
 
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Posted: #65

Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:



Because most cappers in here aren't morons like you. Smart ones don't just tail people, they ask questions, and have a dialogue. Then they make a choice. Try it sometime....doubt you will.

 

 

excellent response cooler!!!!

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by jhonea999:


Understandable with sites like matchbook that you would have minimal juice.  With that said though... you still pay some juice at matchbook which can come into play in the long run.  In the long run which I am very concerned with, juice can be the most important thing to consider.  To make the following math simple i will use -110 lines in the following.  If you are winning at a rate of 51% betting into -110 lines (with 20 cents of juice) you are losing money in the long run.  You have to hit approximately 53% while betting into -110 to be profitable.  He may say he is up 84 units (or whatever he says) but with juice he may actually only be up 70 units.  You may say oh thats no big deal, he is still up.  But the more plays you add to the record the more the juice affects the units +/-... lets look at an example, assume all plays are 1 unit.

Over 100 plays he is 60 - 40 so he is +16 units including juice and +20 units not including juice.  Only a difference of 4 units, no biggie right.

Over 1000 plays he is 600 - 400 so he is +160 units including juice and +200 units not including juice. 

Over 10,000 plays he is 6000 - 4000 so he is +1600 units including juice and +2000 units not including juice.  

As you make more and more plays over a lifetime.  Not including juice in your calculation can make a huge difference in whether or not you are profiting.  I apologize for using such a simple example above but thats how simple yet important juice is!!!  It is the edge the book has over us and the edge we must over come to be successful.    


Yeah... Juice is important don't get me wrong but the bottom line is that he picks winners and even including juice Mrheadache would be making you money!  Later
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I would lay 5-1 that if someone went back and audited this season record keeping they would find errors that mysteriously are in his favor.  Oh - and also posting the best lines on every game....

Its called tout math.  When you are tyring to sell picks, you do this type of thing.

Waiting for the "I forgot to update my record reply..."

Yeah , I believe he was Busted several times this season ///

 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Why would Dan LeFevour look ahead to N Illinois when he has a game to play on national television that may influence a majority of NFL VIP's regarding his draft status which directly affects his financial status? I can respect your play with Ball State but don't be misguided with this nonsense.

BRILLIANT

A no brainer for me with C.Michigan-17 produced another Chips winner 35-3... Simply Brilliant

 
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Posted: #69
any thoughts on tonights NFL game Mr.H ?
 
 
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IS ZAC ROBINSON PLAYING TONITE DOES ANYONE KNOW
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