makes no sense arguing any more. for each of my pro nevada posts there are 3-4 pro boise posts. something like the number of bets on nevada compared to the number of bets on boise. i can lose this bet, no big deal. i have been wrong before. if i lose it i will be back to say that i was wrong and once again there will be at least 10 boise backers here telling me how wrong i was. and if i win it, there will be 2-3 guys congratulating me. no big deal. gl
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makes no sense arguing any more. for each of my pro nevada posts there are 3-4 pro boise posts. something like the number of bets on nevada compared to the number of bets on boise. i can lose this bet, no big deal. i have been wrong before. if i lose it i will be back to say that i was wrong and once again there will be at least 10 boise backers here telling me how wrong i was. and if i win it, there will be 2-3 guys congratulating me. no big deal. gl
so are you saying it's bait? 13.5 just to give perceived value?
when pinnacle gives you something like that you better watch out. their linemakers are extremely sharp. i just wouldn't feel confortable taking a favorite when pinnacle is giving you the best line on that team.
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Quote Originally Posted by DAWGPRINT:
so are you saying it's bait? 13.5 just to give perceived value?
when pinnacle gives you something like that you better watch out. their linemakers are extremely sharp. i just wouldn't feel confortable taking a favorite when pinnacle is giving you the best line on that team.
Enough underestimating Boise. Have you ever heard someone tell you to never bet against a trend? The reason is because if you bet against a trend, you can only be right once, but if you bet with a trend, you can only be wrong once. Boise is 8-2 ATS this season. If you bet Boise every week, every year for the same amount, you will profit. If you don't like Boise to cover, that's fine, but it is a poor financial decision to ever bet against Boise. Do not try and guess the few games where Boise doesn't cover.
Good luck with that strategy buddy. You obviously have very little experience in sports betting, I can tell that. You can win this bet, and I can lose mine, but I stil believe that you will not hit more than 50% of your bets in a long run.
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Quote Originally Posted by KittyKatz286:
Enough underestimating Boise. Have you ever heard someone tell you to never bet against a trend? The reason is because if you bet against a trend, you can only be right once, but if you bet with a trend, you can only be wrong once. Boise is 8-2 ATS this season. If you bet Boise every week, every year for the same amount, you will profit. If you don't like Boise to cover, that's fine, but it is a poor financial decision to ever bet against Boise. Do not try and guess the few games where Boise doesn't cover.
Good luck with that strategy buddy. You obviously have very little experience in sports betting, I can tell that. You can win this bet, and I can lose mine, but I stil believe that you will not hit more than 50% of your bets in a long run.
Good luck with that strategy buddy. You obviously have very little experience in sports betting, I can tell that. You can win this bet, and I can lose mine, but I stil believe that you will not hit more than 50% of your bets in a long run.
actually, KK's thread was dead on... how can anybody who has watched even 1 full season of CFB argue with that?
you are in trouble if you stay in this business... you need to take a step back and re-evaluate! Boise has dominated CFB ATS for the past 5 years or so... for you to argue against what KK said is utterly ridiculous...
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Quote Originally Posted by sophisticated:
Good luck with that strategy buddy. You obviously have very little experience in sports betting, I can tell that. You can win this bet, and I can lose mine, but I stil believe that you will not hit more than 50% of your bets in a long run.
actually, KK's thread was dead on... how can anybody who has watched even 1 full season of CFB argue with that?
you are in trouble if you stay in this business... you need to take a step back and re-evaluate! Boise has dominated CFB ATS for the past 5 years or so... for you to argue against what KK said is utterly ridiculous...
one of the 5 worst best i've seen this CFB season... will take a veritable miracle for you to cover...
you have rationalized the shit out of this pick, and that's a bad way to go... Nevada is in way over their heads here...
No problem. As I said yesterday, if I lose this one I'll move on and this thread will be filled with Boise backers and occasional bettors telling me how bad of a capper I am. If Nevada covers tonight, this thread as well as the entire CFB forum will be quiet..very quiet...until saturday morning.
Record update on this site betting ats sides in all sports:
30-13 (69.77%)
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Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:
one of the 5 worst best i've seen this CFB season... will take a veritable miracle for you to cover...
you have rationalized the shit out of this pick, and that's a bad way to go... Nevada is in way over their heads here...
No problem. As I said yesterday, if I lose this one I'll move on and this thread will be filled with Boise backers and occasional bettors telling me how bad of a capper I am. If Nevada covers tonight, this thread as well as the entire CFB forum will be quiet..very quiet...until saturday morning.
Record update on this site betting ats sides in all sports:
if I lose this one I'll move on and this thread will be filled with Boise backers and occasional bettors telling me how bad of a capper I am. If Nevada covers tonight, this thread as well as the entire CFB forum will be quiet..very quiet...until saturday morning.
ah ok... now i see your motivation...
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Quote Originally Posted by sophisticated:
if I lose this one I'll move on and this thread will be filled with Boise backers and occasional bettors telling me how bad of a capper I am. If Nevada covers tonight, this thread as well as the entire CFB forum will be quiet..very quiet...until saturday morning.
I wouldn't call Nevada's defense 'swiss cheese', especially at home.
Their first game of the season against E.Washington was their only bad defensive game at home this season but it didn't matter since Nevada led by double digits almost the entire game.
In their 2nd home game of the season Nevada allowed 6 pts to Colorado State, 2.5 rushing yards per carry and picked up COST quarterback twice.
In their third home game of the season Nevada defense picked Cal's QB three times and let Cal keep the ball for only 23 minutes.
In their 4th home game of the season Nevada picked SJSU qb twice
In their 5th home game this season Nevada allowed first points to Utah State when they were up 35-0 and everything that happened after that is irrelevent. The game was out of reach at that point.
In their 6th home game this season Nevada picked NMST qb two times, allowed only 25% of 3rd down conversions and 2.5 rushing yards per carry. NMST scored 6 pts.
No one said that Nevada defense is good or great. I said that they are underrated. They play much better at home. Their defense is not asket to win games for them. Their defense is asked to limit the damage and their offense is winning games for them.
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I wouldn't call Nevada's defense 'swiss cheese', especially at home.
Their first game of the season against E.Washington was their only bad defensive game at home this season but it didn't matter since Nevada led by double digits almost the entire game.
In their 2nd home game of the season Nevada allowed 6 pts to Colorado State, 2.5 rushing yards per carry and picked up COST quarterback twice.
In their third home game of the season Nevada defense picked Cal's QB three times and let Cal keep the ball for only 23 minutes.
In their 4th home game of the season Nevada picked SJSU qb twice
In their 5th home game this season Nevada allowed first points to Utah State when they were up 35-0 and everything that happened after that is irrelevent. The game was out of reach at that point.
In their 6th home game this season Nevada picked NMST qb two times, allowed only 25% of 3rd down conversions and 2.5 rushing yards per carry. NMST scored 6 pts.
No one said that Nevada defense is good or great. I said that they are underrated. They play much better at home. Their defense is not asket to win games for them. Their defense is asked to limit the damage and their offense is winning games for them.
Boise favored on the road against good teams .750 or better:
0-5 ATS
Average ATS margin: -14.7
Converting that margin to today's line we are getting a tie game at the end of regulation. Maybe another overtime classic between these two ? Who knows. Good luck all !
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One last info...
Boise favored on the road against good teams .750 or better:
0-5 ATS
Average ATS margin: -14.7
Converting that margin to today's line we are getting a tie game at the end of regulation. Maybe another overtime classic between these two ? Who knows. Good luck all !
actually, KK's thread was dead on... how can anybody who has watched even 1 full season of CFB argue with that?
you are in trouble if you stay in this business... you need to take a step back and re-evaluate! Boise has dominated CFB ATS for the past 5 years or so... for you to argue against what KK said is utterly ridiculous...
i'm into sports betting since 1980 (30 years) and i have seen much better teams than boise and several other teams that used to dominate the same way boise dominates now. every domination comes to an end. boise's dominance is not something that i am arguing here. but i do find it funny when someone is telling me that no one should be betting against boise necause they are 8-2 ats this season. the books love that kind of thinking. and by the way, i signed up here not long ago but that doesn't mean that i'm new in sports gambling. good luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:
actually, KK's thread was dead on... how can anybody who has watched even 1 full season of CFB argue with that?
you are in trouble if you stay in this business... you need to take a step back and re-evaluate! Boise has dominated CFB ATS for the past 5 years or so... for you to argue against what KK said is utterly ridiculous...
i'm into sports betting since 1980 (30 years) and i have seen much better teams than boise and several other teams that used to dominate the same way boise dominates now. every domination comes to an end. boise's dominance is not something that i am arguing here. but i do find it funny when someone is telling me that no one should be betting against boise necause they are 8-2 ats this season. the books love that kind of thinking. and by the way, i signed up here not long ago but that doesn't mean that i'm new in sports gambling. good luck.
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