41-16-3 ATS YTD

I'm new to the thread and had some problems with my old account so I'm reposting my picks... I have my own web page where I've posted my plays for three years running now. All plays are documented and the site is legitimate. 58% winners in 2006, 60% winners in 2007, and off to my best start ever this year at 41-16-3 ATS overall and 5-0-1 on my strongest plays which I rate as a 5* check it out....edited To the picks...

 

Best Bet: UVA @ Duke-- UVA is a team in disarray... Their 45-10 loss to UCONN a couple weeks ago was very misleading as it could have easily been 80-0, and that's no exaggeration... The UVA guys seem to have no interest in playing for HC Al Groh and it shows out on the field. They lost their starting QB Lailach who was dismissed from the team and his replacement is terrible... Duke is a team who has gained a little confidence after their 2-1 start under new HC Davis Cutcliffe... Although the comp has been nothing to brag about it's still good for their confidence and they are putting up some points. Cutcliffe, one of the best QB coaches in the country, has a player to work with in talented QB Thaddeus Lewis. Duke came close to pulling out a win over 4-0 Northwestern in a 4 pt. loss... The difference in this one though is that Duke is a hungry football team thirsty for success and they're going to come to play. UVA on the otherhand seems to have lost interest and it will show in their effort. I expect a 1-11 year for the Cavs and an end to AL Groh's job. Take Duke -7

 

UNC @ Miami-- Bad break for the Heels as a promising season is now down the drain with the loss of QB TJ Yates. The Heels quickly squandered a 17-3 lead to VT in a 20-17 loss @ home after Yates was knocked out of the game. Mike Paulus replaced him and the Heels were totally out of sinc. Now this young bunch has to travel to play a tenacious Cane D with Paulus under center which spells TROUBLE... The Heels were already going to have their struggles on the road due to their youth and depth and now they've lost the leader of their offense... The Cane D is very impressive as they held an explosive Florida offense to 9 points going into the 4th qtr before they finally wore down. They'll be drooling to attack this UNC Offense and freshman QB. As long as the Canes take care of the ball on O and get the ground game going they'll win this one easily. Take Miami -7

 

Ole Miss @ Florida-- Great spot here for the Rebs coming off a loss while the Gators are in a let down spot. HC Urban Meyer will have a tough time getting his guys up for this one after they watch film of the Rebs loss to Vandy. I know Vandy is much improved but in these kids minds Vandy is Vandy, you don't lose to them. I expect Reb HC Houston Nutt to emphasize ball security in practice this week and I guarantee he'll have his guys ready to play. I know former HC Orgeron was a joke but this is a very talented Rebel team as he brought in 3 top 30 classes including heraleded QB and Texas transfer Jevan Snead. Snead has enough playmakers around him to put up points and the Reb D is getting a boost at DE with the return of Greg Hardy (all-sec 1st team). I'm not implying that the Rebs are going to sneak up on the Gators and pull out a W but they'll have the Gators in a fight they won't feel like being in and will get the cover. Take Ole Miss +23

 

UT @ Auburn-- UT is another team in disarray. If the play isn't already bad enough on the field the Vols also have a few off-field issues including talk of Phil being in his last year. Not that that's any different than any other year but the Gators made the difference in talent level apparent this past weekend. This just isn't the same Vols and they have a terrible QB in Johnathan CRAPton. After seeing the way he's struggled so far I can't imagine what he's going to do when he arrives at Jordan-Haire to play an angry Tiger D. Great spot here to back Auburn coming off their disappointing loss to LSU. The Auburn D should cover this one by themselves. I know the Auburn offense hasn't come along as quickly as they would have liked but they should be able to do enough on the ground to get the win with help from the D. Take Auburn -6

 

Those are my early 4 and I'm waiting to see what the lines do in the Okla, Wake, Cincy, and Oregon games... Check back later and good luck!!

Damn... Had no idea... Thanks guys.....

i am on 3 of the 4 games..   not taking florida or ole miss...  staying away from this game...

Added play for Thursday

 

USC @ Oregon ST.-- In the last 10 seasons guess how many times USC has beaten OSU by 21+??? ZERO... As a matter of fact in the 4 meetings over the 10 seasons played in Corvalis the Beavers have won 2 in 2000 and 2006. The 2 teams have played each other every year dating back to 1998 with USC having an 8-2 edge. But, in those 8 wins the average win margin has been by 14 ppg. It's no secret that the Trojans tend to sleep walk through the PAC-10 every year playing to their level of competition. Last year the Trojans had 1 win by more than 21 and that was @ home vs. Wazzu. In the following 8 league games they won by an average of 11.7 ppg in 7 wins and suffered a loss to Stanford. Although OSU is off to a tough start at 1-2 with losses @ Stanford, due to goaline fumble, and @ Penn State where they were clearly overwhelmed from the start by the atmosphere, this is still a pretty talented Beaver team. They went 9-4 last year and besides a disappointing loss to UCLA they were 5-1 @ home with an average win margin of 17.6 ppg. Basically my point is this is a different team when playing at home. Getting out of there with a win is hard enough for an opposing team, but by 25!!!??? One thing I know for sure is the Beavers have this game circled on their calendar just like the rest of the PAC-10 teams. They'll be pumped, focused, and ready to give these guys their best shot. USC on the otherhand has just seen them lose to Stanford and smashed at Penn State while all they've heard is how their the greatest team to walk the face of the earth over the last two weeks. Don't get me wrong I think they are a very talented team. But, a 52-7 win over a Virginia team I just watched UCONN take it EASY on in a 45-10 win and a 35-3 win at home over a buckeye team without Beanie who has struggled to put away the likes of Youngstown St., Ohio, and Troy @ Home hasn't sold me just yet. Oregon St. QB Lyle Moevao is on pace to break Derek Anderson's single season passing records with 922 yds through the air in just 3 games. He has a set of WR's with NFL potential and if your not familiar with WR Sammie Stroughter he'll introduce himself tonight. USC DB Sharrece Wright is out which isn't a huge concern for a team like USC but look for the Beavers to try and take advantage of his replacement who hasn't played a game in 2 years due to injury. While OSU has an entirely new Front 7 on D the replacements were in the rotation last year when the Beavers finished #1 in the country against the run. They aren't as strong up front this year but have good speed as a unit which is a plus when playing a team like USC. Like I said earlier the Trojans tend to play to their level of comp while the Beavers will be giving them their best shot. I just can't see myself not taking these 25 points.... They haven't done it in the last decade, why would it change Thursday tonight??? Take Oregon St. +25

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Cincy @ Akron-- Once again this week the Bearcats are alot smaller favorites than I expected. Last week I had Cincy layin 10.5 @ home to Miami(Ohio) a play that had me scratching my head??? The result an easy 25 point win as I expected. This weekend the Bearcats go on the road to play Akron, the line, Bearcats -11??? Is there something that I'm missing?? I know Cincy QB Dustin Grutza is out again but as I predicted last weekend replacement QB Taylor Pike stepped in nicely for Grutza and the Bearcat Offense didn't skip a beat. This is a very talented Cincy team on both sides of the ball. The talent level of these two teams aren't even close. I knew the Bearcats had another good team when I watched them stay in the game with Oklahoma for 3 qtrs in a game where Oklahoma wasn't just playing bad. Cincy is just that good. So it brings me back to this line of 11. Akron has a couple wins over Army and Syracuse, two teams that are both ranked between the 115-120 range in my opinion as both are pathetic. So with those wins I guess that means the Zips are going to give the Bearcats a game. WRONG!!! Akron is going to struggle to put up any points on this defense and the Bearcats should move the ball up and down the field quite easily. This line should be at least 17 and I'd still lay it. I had already planned on it. Cats by 3 td's... Take Cincy -11 

 

Best Bet: Oregon @ Wazzu-- If things couldn't get worse for the Cougars now they'll be without their starting QB. Bad news for a team who is struggling badly and are already beat up at other positions. I know Oregon has it's own issues at QB with injuries to Roper and Costa but the funny thing is most teams would love to have the 3 guys HC Mike Belotti is rotating in place of them. All 3 are capable of running the offense effectively as shown in the 2nd half of the Purdue game and last week vs. Boise where they put up 32 points in both. The difference in talent and speed of these two teams is a joke... Unfortunately for Wazzu the Ducks are coming off a loss and will be taking it out on them. The Cougars are starting a redshirt-freshman at QB and to be completely honest this could get extremely UGLY. I'm sure everyone remembers the 66-3 beating Cal put on Wazzu a couple weeks back and they were healthier then... Not to mention Oregon is better than Cal. I'm not kidding when I say 63-7.... Final... Get on it now before it moves any higher. Actually forget I said that, play it no matter what it is. Take Oregon -21       

Got the week started with an Easy win on the Beavers. I've added 2 plays to my original card and check back Saturday morning for the complete card... GL!!