Ok, again I'm an Iowa homer so consider that although I beleive I've capped this game properly there is always that part of me being a huge Hawkeye fan that might sneak in. I will say that last week I knew to bet Iowa -18.5 @ Indiana so took the under instead.
Alot of motivating angles in this game for Iowa and according to bulleting material from Northwestern's Freshman Adonis Smith said on the Northwestern News Network that his head coach "hates Iowa.......I know that for a fact". A great reason that coach Ferentz doesn't allow his freshman to speak to press period.
Other motivation is Iowa has lost 4 of 5 to NW, NW cost Iowa a perfect season posssibility last year and they knocked out Stanzi from playing against Ohio State. In addition they want to make up for last weeks crappy play against Indiana coming off of an emotional win at home against MSU the week before.
Most importantly Iowa is in a heated race to win the Big 10 and have to get through Northwestern to keep chances alive.
Iowa offensively has no trouble puting up points and they don't turn the ball over (#3 in to margin in the country). Iowa is ranked #50 in rushing (Adam Robinson with 1060 yards rush/receive and 11 tds is back this week after mild concussion kept him out last week), #36 in passing yards, and #35 in points scored.
SR QB Stanzi is going to be amped for this game with rememberance of last years game when injured and lost. He has one of the best years for an Iowa QB since the days of Chuck Long. 68.3% completion %, 2212 yards, 9.6 per attempt, 20 td passes and only 3 picks.......against BIG 10 defensive minded teams.
Iowa has a couple of pro prospect WR's and always develop great TE's. Junior Marvin McNutt is a big play threat and a gamer (see last weeks 52 yard 4th quarter winning td catch) has a yard per catch of 17.3 and 5 tds, Senior Johnson-Koulianos 15.8 and 8tds and Senior TE Allen Reisner is very good catching and blockng with 29 catches and 2 tds.
Special teams are excellent for Iowa. They have explosive Kick Return opportunities with WR Johnson-Koulianos with a 27.5 avg and I have this feeling he is going to return one this week for a score...just a hunch. In addition to giving Iowa great field position they have a can't miss NFL punter in Senior Ryan Donahue who has a 45.0 avg, 71 long and the best punter in the NCAA getting the ball inside the 10 yard line.
Defense? Someone say defense? Iowa #8 in yards allowed, 5 in rushing allowed and #6 in points scored. They have a bend but don't break mentality and may give up passing yards but NW will be settling for FG attempts more than they would like.
6 of the 9 opponents this year have scored 13 points or less. The 3 that scored on Iowa (Wisconsin #19 in country scoring, Michigan #12 and Arizona #43) Northwestern in #73.....bit of a difference.
Northwestern: Offensively they are #73 in points scored, #67 in rushing yards (most from the QB position), and #31 in passing yards. They are led by the very efficent Dan Persa 73.4% completion, 13 td vs. 3 pics and 8 running tds. Keep in mind that Michigan State sacked Persa 8 times and Iowa has a much better defense than MSU.
WR Jeremey Ebert is the go to guy with 48 catches, an impressive16.4 per catch and 7 scords.
Special teams are not great with average kick return stats and the #83 fg% kicking game in the country.
Defense: You can throw on Northwestern ranked #99 in pass, #75 in total yards and they are #41 in points allowed. This team missed 27 tackles against Penn State last week alone. Iowa has only had 6 turnovers all season so don't expect many if any today.
Northwestern gets penalized alot as they have out penalized the opponent last 6 straight games and expect that again against a senior team like Iowa.
Northwestern in 0-2 in home Big 10 games and Iowa is 2-0 in Big 10 road games, expect the same.
IOWA HAWKEYES -9.5 GOOD LUCK