Looked at some team stats...
These teams are really pretty comparable in stats; there are just a few that I think play into this game. First is assists:
Kentucky has shooters; and plenty. But they tend to pass the ball more when they are not doing well. In their 8 losses FG% is cut to: Miller 41 from 48.6, Lamb 43.5 from 49.7, and Knight .38 from 43.5. OSU will have Craft and Lighty spliting time and sometimes doubling Knight. If OSU can keep Knight under 40% big advantage OSU. If KY gets rattled they will throw the ball around more.
Harrellson has to have the game of his life. He just doesn't match up to Sullenger...but assuming Harrellson can handle Sullenger it gives KY a chance; but doesn't guarantee a win.
OSU Scoring: look at this spread: point leaders per game: Sullenger 11, Buford 9, Lighty 8, Diebler 6, Thomas 4, Craft 1. (3 ties). So who do you have to stop? Adv: OSU because they can allow Craft to have a single mission...stop Knight from scoring.
In OSU losses, the following stats stand out. FG% - overall is 42.4%, 3-P 49.7%.
In 2 losses and 1 squeaker that they won here are the comaprable numbers: Wisconsin 54.3%/33.3%; Purdue 38.3%/26.7%, and NW (a win) 50%/25%. In other words, nobody can come close to beating OSU unless you stop the three. KY is a good 3-P shooting team; but Miller and Lamb are the 3-P show. Knight is only 38.4% outside the arc. OSU has to stop Miller and Lamb outside the arc. Kentucky has a bigger task here. Diebler, Lighty, Buford, Craft, and Thomas have to be guarded vigorously outside the line. Again..who do you try to stop?
Court: adv; mild OSU. Kentucky has 8 losses; 7 on away courts, OSU has 2 both on away courts...Kentucky seems to have slightly more road trouble than OSU.
The Key: defense for both teams. If Craft stops Knight; its lights out for KY; unless Miller and Lamb have really exceptional games. If Buford and Diebler hold those two to normal with Knight cold....then KY has to pray OSU is cold from beyond the arc.
Prediction: too much for KY; they might control Sullenger; but Craft will equally give Knight fits; because he will see double team from Lighty. KY will turn the ball over more than 10.6 (ave) for the season. At least two of OSU's backcourt men will come with their game...don't know which ones; but does KY get so lucky to have everyone off...doubt it. OSU will change O strat in the game. Early they probably go inside; and then pull it back out for the 3. Have done that numerous times this year.
Earlier, I said Calipari needed to make OSU tired. Might not happen. OSU averages 38 first half and 41.2 second. OSU's 2nd half stats are bait though; in over half of their games this year; game was over at halftime and they played trade a bucket in the 2nd half. OSU defense is monsterous in the first half; only 27 points allowed. OSU has to play monster defense; and have a few guys hot.
I don't think apparent rebounding adv for KY means anything; look at FG% compared to rebounds. OSU 2.8% better shooting, KY 3.1 more reb's. Hit more shots, need fewer rebs.
OSU 78 Kentucky 66