1-0 last play, winning the George Mason / VCU over yesterday evening
Play: Western Kentucky / Denver Over 128.5
At first glance, most would be very hesitant to be on an over that involves a Denver team that is ranked #326 in the country with respect to adjusted tempo—especially in a conference tournament setting where popular opinion that “teams slow things down” prevails.However, there is very strong statistical correlation present in tonight’s game that points to an over based on the pace and style that WKU plays.
The national average for adjusted tempo is 66.2 possessions per game. Denver has played 10 lined games vs opponents who play faster than the national average. In all except one of those games, there was 129+ points scored. The only match up that didn’t was their last game of the year vs North Texas that finished at 116 – as the second best defensively efficient team in the Sun Belt held the Pioneers to an uncharacteristic 38.7% shooting from the floor that game.
Taking this thought process one step further, in the 7 games vs opponents ranked in the top 100 nationally with respect to adjusted pace, the games averaged 134.7 points. The significance? WKU is the fourth fastest paced team Denver has faced this year, 47th nationally, averaging 69.1 possessions per game.
WKU averaged 68.4 possessions in conference play. This is significant when you consider the fact that Denver maintains the #2 effective FG% in the country bolstered by an offense that ranks in the top 15 with respect to 3P% (#12), 2P% (#3), and FT% (#13) and should be able to maximize their scoring opportunities with these additional possessions. This offensive efficiency is highlighted in their previous match up this year where Denver was able to score 78 points on only 60 possessions. Now contrarians will argue that this points out that Denver will slow the pace down tonight. I’d argue that this is the anomaly of the group and would expect to see possessions in the mid-60’s (KenPom predicts 64).It’s also worth noting that WKU was already able to push below average paced teams FIU and Ark-LR to 67 and 69 possessions respectively in the earlier rounds of the conference tournament.
1-0 last play, winning the George Mason / VCU over yesterday evening
Play: Western Kentucky / Denver Over 128.5
At first glance, most would be very hesitant to be on an over that involves a Denver team that is ranked #326 in the country with respect to adjusted tempo—especially in a conference tournament setting where popular opinion that “teams slow things down” prevails.However, there is very strong statistical correlation present in tonight’s game that points to an over based on the pace and style that WKU plays.
The national average for adjusted tempo is 66.2 possessions per game. Denver has played 10 lined games vs opponents who play faster than the national average. In all except one of those games, there was 129+ points scored. The only match up that didn’t was their last game of the year vs North Texas that finished at 116 – as the second best defensively efficient team in the Sun Belt held the Pioneers to an uncharacteristic 38.7% shooting from the floor that game.
Taking this thought process one step further, in the 7 games vs opponents ranked in the top 100 nationally with respect to adjusted pace, the games averaged 134.7 points. The significance? WKU is the fourth fastest paced team Denver has faced this year, 47th nationally, averaging 69.1 possessions per game.
WKU averaged 68.4 possessions in conference play. This is significant when you consider the fact that Denver maintains the #2 effective FG% in the country bolstered by an offense that ranks in the top 15 with respect to 3P% (#12), 2P% (#3), and FT% (#13) and should be able to maximize their scoring opportunities with these additional possessions. This offensive efficiency is highlighted in their previous match up this year where Denver was able to score 78 points on only 60 possessions. Now contrarians will argue that this points out that Denver will slow the pace down tonight. I’d argue that this is the anomaly of the group and would expect to see possessions in the mid-60’s (KenPom predicts 64).It’s also worth noting that WKU was already able to push below average paced teams FIU and Ark-LR to 67 and 69 possessions respectively in the earlier rounds of the conference tournament.
Grinder of a first half with only ~29 possessions, but both teams shooting the ball very well. I'd like to see WKU push the pace a little bit more in the second half
Grinder of a first half with only ~29 possessions, but both teams shooting the ball very well. I'd like to see WKU push the pace a little bit more in the second half
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