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Weekend Mountain West Writeups and discussion

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Posted: #26
No worries SG, I saw that and only played it for 1.5u.  Thanks for posting
 
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Posted: #27

Wyoming +3 1.5u

Santa Clara +4 1u
Iowa -1/Siena ML  1u to win 1.7u

1-1, 0-1 ml parlay, -1.65u
MW 0-1, -1.65u
 
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Posted: #28
Saturday Plays

Mountain West Play

New Mexico State +14 1u

See writeup above.  Might be falling for a classic trap here, just wondering how the rebounding and TO numbers change enough to justify playing NM.

Other Plays:

Richmond -7 1u

VCU has no advantage here, Richmond is home, where they are quite good.  SOS equal, exp equal, Richmond is bigger, better athletes, shoot the 3 better and defend better. 

Missouri State +3 1u

Mo St.  SOS, height, contain Moses with creekmore and weems.  More well rounded, get to the line more.  Both teams good at the FG and defending it, Mo ST a bit better, with the harder schedule.  Slight adv to ok st on boards on paper.  Not buying it.  Mo st, more experienced so should handle the road ok.

Wofford +7 1u

Bad spot for an extremely young SC team, vs one of the most experienced team in D1.  Big win vs Clemson, going to play Oh st next. The great weakness of wofford, fouling, doomed them against AF, but SC doesn't go to the line.  A/FGM rate  64/48 in favor of Wofford.  SC has better players, but in this spot, I'll take the experience.

Pass: A+M, ODU, Charlotte
Looking at AZ, TCU, WGB, St John's, LBst
 
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Posted: #29
Saturday Plays

Mountain West Play

New Mexico State +14 1u

See writeup above.  Might be falling for a classic trap here, just wondering how the rebounding and TO numbers change enough to justify playing NM.

Other Plays:

Richmond -7 1u

VCU has no advantage here, Richmond is home, where they are quite good.  SOS equal, exp equal, Richmond is bigger, better athletes, shoot the 3 better and defend better. 

Missouri State +3 1u

Mo St.  SOS, height, contain Moses with creekmore and weems.  More well rounded, get to the line more.  Both teams good at the FG and defending it, Mo ST a bit better, with the harder schedule.  Slight adv to ok st on boards on paper.  Not buying it.  Mo st, more experienced so should handle the road ok.

Wofford +7 1u

Bad spot for an extremely young SC team, vs one of the most experienced team in D1.  Big win vs Clemson, going to play Oh st next. The great weakness of wofford, fouling, doomed them against AF, but SC doesn't go to the line.  A/FGM rate  64/48 in favor of Wofford.  SC has better players, but in this spot, I'll take the experience.

Pass: A+M, ODU, Charlotte
Looking at AZ, TCU, WGB, St John's, LBst
 
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Posted: #30
Had two leans yesterday: Mich and WY, and played the wrong one.  Siena couldn't overcome their injuries, and IA collapsed.  Gotta limit any combo play, they are losing me money.  Thank goodness for stick and his NBA play.

Yesterday
1-1, 0-1 ML parlay, -1.65u
MW: 0-1, -1.65u

Overall:
YTD: 97-77-8 Overall full game, 22-11-1 middle/2h, 1-2 ml, 6-9-1 teasers/ml parlay, +28.5u
Mountain West record: 20-14-5, 6-1 2h, 1-0ml, 3-1 teasers +15.65u
 
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Posted: #31
Added:

Wisconsin Green Bay +5 (-120) 1u

Straight SOS play.  Buffalo has massively inflated numbers.  Pre-season rank 261 by KP, currently 177, 10% more efficient on D.  WGB is playing right to projection while playing the 38th hardest, 22 non-conf, schedule.  Might be out on a limb here, but on a neutral court, for the first game of the year, WGB is favored by 2-3 possessions.

 
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Posted: #32
Added:

Mountain West

1h San Diego +16 (-105) 2u

Just a straight motivation/trend /spot play.  There is nothing about playing the game of basketball that recommends this play.  Nothing.  But games aren't played on paper.  SDS normally has sluggish 1h, coming off a huge win, and they know they can cruise through this game.  If SD was competitive at all, I would say rivalry, but come on - this is like the rivalry between the hammer and the nail.
 
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Posted: #33
Major line crash

UNLV 1h +1.5 1u
UNLV +3 1u
 
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Posted: #34
Any thoughts on the New Mexico game going over 143? I think both teams hit 75+.
 
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Posted: #35
What up B!

Been out of town for a while but I am back!

Locked in:

UNLV

TCU

Duke
 
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Posted: #36
Summer - haven't looked at it.  Will.

Hoops, Still looking at TCU, stick is ambivalent and he has had a better read of TCU this year than me.  Still see some value in that line as I wrote in my writeup.
 
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Posted: #37
 
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Posted: #38
Oiler

Thought I posted this tail of kine

Auburn +9 1u
 
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Posted: #39
Added 1u to wofford, Mo st, Richmond and WGB, to make all those 2u plays.  Thus updated card is

New Mexico State +14 1u
UNLV +1.5 1h 1u
UNLV +3 1u
1h San Diego +16 (-105) 2u

Other Plays:

Richmond -7 1u, -6 1u
Missouri State +3 2u
Wofford +7 2u
Wisconsin Green Bay +5 (-120) 1u, +6 1u
Auburn +9 1u

 
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Posted: #40
Going for the middle

2h Louisville -3 (-115) .5u
 
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Posted: #41
Bought out half - rebounding numbers are scary.

Rutgers -4 2h .5u
 
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Posted: #42
Summer - line looks right on the O/U.  Last year they played a very high scoring first game at NMst, then a much lower scoring affair at NM. 
 
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Posted: #43
Added:

Wisconsin ML 1 to win 1.05u

3 pt shooting should be the difference in this game.

Out for a while.

New Mexico State +14 1u
UNLV +1.5 1h 1u
UNLV +3 1u
1h San Diego +16 (-105) 2u

Other Plays:

Richmond -7 1u, -6 1u
Missouri State +3 2u
Wofford +7 2u
Wisconsin Green Bay +5 (-120) 1u, +6 1u
Auburn +9 1u
Wisc ml 1 to win 1.05u

2h
2h Louisville -3 (-115) .5u
Rutgers -4 2h .5u
 
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Posted: #44
New Mexico State +14 1u
UNLV +1.5 1h 1u
UNLV +3 1u
1h San Diego +16 (-105) 2u

Other Plays:

Richmond -7 1u, -6 1u
Missouri State +3 2u
Wofford +7 2u
Wisconsin Green Bay +5 (-120) 1u, +6 1u
Auburn +9 1u
Wisc ml 1 to win 1.05u

2h
2h Louisville -3 (-115) .5u
Rutgers -4 2h .5u
 
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Posted: #45
2h OK State +1 .5u
 
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Posted: #46
New Mexico State +14 1u
UNLV +1.5 1h 1u
UNLV +3 1u
1h San Diego +16 (-105) 2u

Other Plays:

Richmond -7 1u, -6 1u
Missouri State +3 2u
Wofford +7 2u
Wisconsin Green Bay +5 (-120) 1u, +6 1u
Auburn +9 1u
Wisc ml 1 to win 1.05u

2h
2h Louisville -3 (-115) .5u
Rutgers -4 2h .5u
2h OK State +1 .5u
2h SDS -14 1u (once they woke up, they held SD to 3 pts over the last 6 minutes)

I'm not a big vent guy but I took it in the shorts today - Gillenwater goes down and that game is still close til a brutal run by NM, Wofford was right there, WGB had ft's with under 2 minutes to make that 7 and missed both.  Mo st was just a bad pick.  Felt like I stretched a bit to make these plays, cept the SD 1h, and Richmond as they were home. 
 
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Posted: #47
New Mexico State +14 1u
UNLV +1.5 1h 1u
UNLV +3 1u
1h San Diego +16 (-105) 2u

Other Plays:

Richmond -7 1u, -6 1u
Missouri State +3 2u
Wofford +7 2u
Wisconsin Green Bay +5 (-120) 1u, +6 1u
Auburn +9 1u
Wisc ml 1 to win 1.05u

2h
2h Louisville -3 (-115) .5u
Rutgers -4 2h .5u
2h OK State +1 .5u
2h SDS -14 1u

After all that...-.85u

3-5-1, ml 1-0, 2h 3-0-1, -.85
MW: 2-2, 2h 1-0, +1.8
 
 
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Posted: #48
...that's ok, pal...after the pasting I got on Friday, I went ML parlay just to feel good again: Ill.St./Richmond/Davidson....three-teamer that paid only +120? you betcha...big confidence booster.
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