Can you give me a little insight into Cal Poly? I'm thinking of making a play on Depaul, cant understand why the line is only 3 tho...has got me a little hesitant.
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Hey Nropp great work as always....
Can you give me a little insight into Cal Poly? I'm thinking of making a play on Depaul, cant understand why the line is only 3 tho...has got me a little hesitant.
this may sound like a dumb question but are the books or yourself ever privy to who the officials are on a certain game? I officiated high school for 20 years and it's a known fact that some officials call it closer than others, meaning quicker bonuses, more fouls and ultimately more points. My thinking here is is that certain officials would tend to help or harm and over bet and vice versa. Your thoughts.
perhaps you heard about the NBA ref Tim Donaghy.
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Quote Originally Posted by thornridge1972:
neil,
this may sound like a dumb question but are the books or yourself ever privy to who the officials are on a certain game? I officiated high school for 20 years and it's a known fact that some officials call it closer than others, meaning quicker bonuses, more fouls and ultimately more points. My thinking here is is that certain officials would tend to help or harm and over bet and vice versa. Your thoughts.
Nropp11, (Keep up the good work always enjoy and value your insight)
Any thoughts on the Bama/Ok. State game, I'm actually a Bama fan and believe that number is a little high. The only way I see us winning and covering is if we can create a lot of turnovers and score in transition. We don't have an outside shooter and our half court offense has been terrible as of late. I have to take OK. State and the points in this one. Thoughts?
I TOTALLY AGREE.......WITH ALL THE FRESHMAN PLAYING ITS BEEN HARD TO FIND A RYTHEM AND WHERE THEY ALL FIT IN TO THE OFFENSE AND RELEFORD LOOKS LIKE HE HAS DIGRESSED SINCE LAST YEAR.....HE NEEDS TO PENETRATE MORE TO CREATE BETTER SHOTS AND LAYUPS FOR GREEN AND MITCHELL AND AT THE SAME TIME THE FRESHMAN HAVE GOT TO START HITTING SHOTS. I HAVE IT AT 8.5 SO THAT'S WAY INFLATED...ITS A WEDNESDAY NIGHT GAME IN BIRMINGHAM AND THE ARENA WILL BE HALF EMPTY SO THAT REALLY DOES'NT PLAY IN OUR FAVOR AS WELL AS THE FACT WE SHOOT LIKE SHIT ON THE ROAD..THAT'S AN ALABAMA TRADITION..SO ID REALLY STAY AWAY FROM THIS ONE....IF WE MAKE SHOTS WE WIN BY 20....IF WE DONT WE LOSE BY 10-15
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Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTime41885:
Nropp11, (Keep up the good work always enjoy and value your insight)
Any thoughts on the Bama/Ok. State game, I'm actually a Bama fan and believe that number is a little high. The only way I see us winning and covering is if we can create a lot of turnovers and score in transition. We don't have an outside shooter and our half court offense has been terrible as of late. I have to take OK. State and the points in this one. Thoughts?
I TOTALLY AGREE.......WITH ALL THE FRESHMAN PLAYING ITS BEEN HARD TO FIND A RYTHEM AND WHERE THEY ALL FIT IN TO THE OFFENSE AND RELEFORD LOOKS LIKE HE HAS DIGRESSED SINCE LAST YEAR.....HE NEEDS TO PENETRATE MORE TO CREATE BETTER SHOTS AND LAYUPS FOR GREEN AND MITCHELL AND AT THE SAME TIME THE FRESHMAN HAVE GOT TO START HITTING SHOTS. I HAVE IT AT 8.5 SO THAT'S WAY INFLATED...ITS A WEDNESDAY NIGHT GAME IN BIRMINGHAM AND THE ARENA WILL BE HALF EMPTY SO THAT REALLY DOES'NT PLAY IN OUR FAVOR AS WELL AS THE FACT WE SHOOT LIKE SHIT ON THE ROAD..THAT'S AN ALABAMA TRADITION..SO ID REALLY STAY AWAY FROM THIS ONE....IF WE MAKE SHOTS WE WIN BY 20....IF WE DONT WE LOSE BY 10-15
saw your tweet, waiting on your thoughts on this one...
I checked the line at my book this am before I got on a flight and it was ULL +3.. I saw where you said you wanted more than a possession so I figured I'd wait... When I landed I checked the line again and it had moved to ULL -1 and it's still there now.. Wish I would have locked it in at 3, now I'm looking at ULL as a favorite
Probably should have played this game this morning but waited for the value to climb over a possession and didn’t get it, but I’m OK with the +1 here for many reasons. First, this is an extremely rare opportunity for a Sun Belt team to host a decently sized out of conference opponent, something that Sun Belt teams have been very good with over the past few seasons. Not only that, but this is one of the better home teams in all of college basketball for the past few seasons. This UL Lafayette team’s only home losses last year came to New Mexico State, Cleveland State, and Middle Tennessee State (they also lost to Texas College, but had 3 starters out). They’re just a completely different team at home, and you will get that with these smaller schools. That’s step 1, getting a team to come in where you play your best. Not only that, they welcome a team in that beat up on them pretty bad last season to the tune of a 79-58 final. What’s missing from that box score is that JJ Thomas was battling an injury and only played 7 minutes, and Josh Brown was hurt as well. Just to give you an idea of how much both of these players mean to this team, last year they both only played around 50% of the team’s minutes and still accounted for half the team’s possessions and shots and at the same time were the best rebounders (yes Brown is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and he’s a guard). It’s a pretty remarkable and telling stat. I cannot 100% confirm Thomas is back tonight, but he has practiced this week, and going to assume that it’s the sole reason for the line move. He should play. And if Marlin plays him more than what he has the past few years, he’s the best player in the conference without a doubt. The spot where I really want to focus on, is fading UCF in this setting. Coach Marlin is a coach who likes to play ten-deep, force the tempo, and use depth as an advantage. He’s only been held below 70 possessions this year, so it’s pretty much a given that with his format or his style, he’s going to get what he wants. And fortunately for him, what he wants is the exact opposite of what UCF wants. If you look at UCF, they’ve played maybe one team that wants to get up and down this year and that was College of Charleston (although COC has really slowed down this year and they were coming off the upset at Clemson). So I can look past that game. Sure, Central Florida has beaten the likes of Uconn (I had UCF in that one) and ODU, but it’s a totally different style of play. They didn’t have to adjust anything or change anything, they went into those games with the exact mindset of what they practice against and prepare against almost daily in practice. It’s totally different. Focus on last year’s fast start to the year, it was the same thing. Snail’s and the same daily style. Then, they get into conference play and the wheels on the bus completely fell off. East Carolina BOOM. Memphis BOOM. Houston BOOM. There was nothing they could do. They just can’t play fast and the personnel is built for the half court, not the full court. Granted, they could have made adjustments from this year to last, and could have put a big focus on it, but there is simply not an ounce of proof anywhere, and it’s doubtful that even with adjustments going on the road that they’ll be able to face the adversity here. I can’t find a matchup I don’t like anywhere on the court in an up and down game. I definitely don’t like UCF’s lack of depth, something they’ll be forced to use in this setting. About the only way I can pinpoint a UCF victory is if somehow someway the Jordan kids developed their Dad’s stroke overnight. Just not a whole heckuva lot to like UCF here. Strength in the post maybe? Maybe? I don’t know. The bigs are at their best in the half court, and a big reason they choose to play in the half court instead of going up and down, something they won’t be able to do here. Point blank, it’s just a nightmarish matchup for them. I’m getting not necessarily the better team, but I’m getting the home team that should give me the better all-around balls to the wall effort for 40 minutes, with added motivation with Thomas returning AND revenge? It’s a gimme spot. Can UCF win here? Anything's possible, but I just don't see them controlling the tempo here.
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Quote Originally Posted by TO9:
saw your tweet, waiting on your thoughts on this one...
I checked the line at my book this am before I got on a flight and it was ULL +3.. I saw where you said you wanted more than a possession so I figured I'd wait... When I landed I checked the line again and it had moved to ULL -1 and it's still there now.. Wish I would have locked it in at 3, now I'm looking at ULL as a favorite
Probably should have played this game this morning but waited for the value to climb over a possession and didn’t get it, but I’m OK with the +1 here for many reasons. First, this is an extremely rare opportunity for a Sun Belt team to host a decently sized out of conference opponent, something that Sun Belt teams have been very good with over the past few seasons. Not only that, but this is one of the better home teams in all of college basketball for the past few seasons. This UL Lafayette team’s only home losses last year came to New Mexico State, Cleveland State, and Middle Tennessee State (they also lost to Texas College, but had 3 starters out). They’re just a completely different team at home, and you will get that with these smaller schools. That’s step 1, getting a team to come in where you play your best. Not only that, they welcome a team in that beat up on them pretty bad last season to the tune of a 79-58 final. What’s missing from that box score is that JJ Thomas was battling an injury and only played 7 minutes, and Josh Brown was hurt as well. Just to give you an idea of how much both of these players mean to this team, last year they both only played around 50% of the team’s minutes and still accounted for half the team’s possessions and shots and at the same time were the best rebounders (yes Brown is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and he’s a guard). It’s a pretty remarkable and telling stat. I cannot 100% confirm Thomas is back tonight, but he has practiced this week, and going to assume that it’s the sole reason for the line move. He should play. And if Marlin plays him more than what he has the past few years, he’s the best player in the conference without a doubt. The spot where I really want to focus on, is fading UCF in this setting. Coach Marlin is a coach who likes to play ten-deep, force the tempo, and use depth as an advantage. He’s only been held below 70 possessions this year, so it’s pretty much a given that with his format or his style, he’s going to get what he wants. And fortunately for him, what he wants is the exact opposite of what UCF wants. If you look at UCF, they’ve played maybe one team that wants to get up and down this year and that was College of Charleston (although COC has really slowed down this year and they were coming off the upset at Clemson). So I can look past that game. Sure, Central Florida has beaten the likes of Uconn (I had UCF in that one) and ODU, but it’s a totally different style of play. They didn’t have to adjust anything or change anything, they went into those games with the exact mindset of what they practice against and prepare against almost daily in practice. It’s totally different. Focus on last year’s fast start to the year, it was the same thing. Snail’s and the same daily style. Then, they get into conference play and the wheels on the bus completely fell off. East Carolina BOOM. Memphis BOOM. Houston BOOM. There was nothing they could do. They just can’t play fast and the personnel is built for the half court, not the full court. Granted, they could have made adjustments from this year to last, and could have put a big focus on it, but there is simply not an ounce of proof anywhere, and it’s doubtful that even with adjustments going on the road that they’ll be able to face the adversity here. I can’t find a matchup I don’t like anywhere on the court in an up and down game. I definitely don’t like UCF’s lack of depth, something they’ll be forced to use in this setting. About the only way I can pinpoint a UCF victory is if somehow someway the Jordan kids developed their Dad’s stroke overnight. Just not a whole heckuva lot to like UCF here. Strength in the post maybe? Maybe? I don’t know. The bigs are at their best in the half court, and a big reason they choose to play in the half court instead of going up and down, something they won’t be able to do here. Point blank, it’s just a nightmarish matchup for them. I’m getting not necessarily the better team, but I’m getting the home team that should give me the better all-around balls to the wall effort for 40 minutes, with added motivation with Thomas returning AND revenge? It’s a gimme spot. Can UCF win here? Anything's possible, but I just don't see them controlling the tempo here.
How about the early 6pm game Neil between Fresno St and Zona St?Im thinking about taking the 7 Pts with Fresno
The points look sexy, especially at Arizona State, but it loses it's value when you see that they're playing a third game in five days, with the first two games coming against really good defensive teams that wear you down, and the latter of the two coming against a rival. No clue how they respond.
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Quote Originally Posted by sungod95:
How about the early 6pm game Neil between Fresno St and Zona St?Im thinking about taking the 7 Pts with Fresno
The points look sexy, especially at Arizona State, but it loses it's value when you see that they're playing a third game in five days, with the first two games coming against really good defensive teams that wear you down, and the latter of the two coming against a rival. No clue how they respond.
this may sound like a dumb question but are the books or yourself ever privy to who the officials are on a certain game? I officiated high school for 20 years and it's a known fact that some officials call it closer than others, meaning quicker bonuses, more fouls and ultimately more points. My thinking here is is that certain officials would tend to help or harm and over bet and vice versa. Your thoughts.
Something I've never looked into. Speaking of officials, were you officiating the ISU game last night?
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Quote Originally Posted by thornridge1972:
neil,
this may sound like a dumb question but are the books or yourself ever privy to who the officials are on a certain game? I officiated high school for 20 years and it's a known fact that some officials call it closer than others, meaning quicker bonuses, more fouls and ultimately more points. My thinking here is is that certain officials would tend to help or harm and over bet and vice versa. Your thoughts.
Something I've never looked into. Speaking of officials, were you officiating the ISU game last night?
Can you give me a little insight into Cal Poly? I'm thinking of making a play on Depaul, cant understand why the line is only 3 tho...has got me a little hesitant.
Wish I could watch this one. No interest from an investment perspective. If I had to guess, I'd probably say that Depaul loses. Just rare for them to play against this style.
Think you might have a better chance at buying ten lottery tickets than trying to project what will happen in this one.
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Quote Originally Posted by Dosan23:
Hey Nropp great work as always....
Can you give me a little insight into Cal Poly? I'm thinking of making a play on Depaul, cant understand why the line is only 3 tho...has got me a little hesitant.
Wish I could watch this one. No interest from an investment perspective. If I had to guess, I'd probably say that Depaul loses. Just rare for them to play against this style.
Think you might have a better chance at buying ten lottery tickets than trying to project what will happen in this one.
why do you like the under in the seton hall/dayton game? what are your thoughts on th depaul total? thanks again for all your timeand info...
Seton Hall first true road game, and two good defenses that take away the other offenses strengths. Two teams met last year, and both were a bit better off offensively last year. Two teams got up 127 shots last year and only scored 134 and each team had a half of 40+. Probably need a flat spot for Seton Hall offensively.
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Quote Originally Posted by scooby-doos:
why do you like the under in the seton hall/dayton game? what are your thoughts on th depaul total? thanks again for all your timeand info...
Seton Hall first true road game, and two good defenses that take away the other offenses strengths. Two teams met last year, and both were a bit better off offensively last year. Two teams got up 127 shots last year and only scored 134 and each team had a half of 40+. Probably need a flat spot for Seton Hall offensively.
Thanks Neil for the great analysis on UCF vs ULL. I think I know NCAA hoops and then I realize I have a lot to learn when I read your posts. GL tonight, u are the best
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Thanks Neil for the great analysis on UCF vs ULL. I think I know NCAA hoops and then I realize I have a lot to learn when I read your posts. GL tonight, u are the best
Something I've never looked into. Speaking of officials, were you officiating the ISU game last night?
I swear after watching that whole game I was convinced that somewhere someone would have been real pissed off if that game didn't exceed that total set at 122.5. Watching that game from start to finish put some pretty pissed off thoughts in my head. And I was on Little Rock full game and 2nd half which ended up covering easily...
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Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
Something I've never looked into. Speaking of officials, were you officiating the ISU game last night?
I swear after watching that whole game I was convinced that somewhere someone would have been real pissed off if that game didn't exceed that total set at 122.5. Watching that game from start to finish put some pretty pissed off thoughts in my head. And I was on Little Rock full game and 2nd half which ended up covering easily...
Wish I could watch this one. No interest from an investment perspective. If I had to guess, I'd probably say that Depaul loses. Just rare for them to play against this style.
Think you might have a better chance at buying ten lottery tickets than trying to project what will happen in this one.
Teddy Covers has a free play on Depaul tonight. I'm not wagering on them myself, but you have to agree he makes some very valid point's. Heres what he wrote below:
DePaul has been a bottom-tier program for the better part of the last decade. When bottom-tier programs make real improvements, it can take months for the betting markets to catch up. And this Blue Demons team is certainly making improvements! They opened up the season by knocking off Arizona State and Texas Tech in Orlando, while losing by only a single point to Minnesota. Then, after a brief hiccup immediately following that trip, the Blue Demons have won four straight, all by double-digit margins. Look for Oliver Purnell’s squad to carry that positive energy forward, notching another comfortable win tonight.
Cal Poly has played well on the road against lesser tier foes in recent weeks – hence this very short pointspread. But the Mustangs have been beating patsies like Fresno and San Jose State (the two last place teams in the WAC). They’ve failed to cover the number in either of their step-up-in-class games, losing at home to St Mary’s and at UNLV in a blowout by 23 points. The betting markets aren’t considering DePaul a ‘step up in class’ opponent for Cal Poly. Maybe they will after tonight’s win and cover for the Blue Demons!
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Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
Wish I could watch this one. No interest from an investment perspective. If I had to guess, I'd probably say that Depaul loses. Just rare for them to play against this style.
Think you might have a better chance at buying ten lottery tickets than trying to project what will happen in this one.
Teddy Covers has a free play on Depaul tonight. I'm not wagering on them myself, but you have to agree he makes some very valid point's. Heres what he wrote below:
DePaul has been a bottom-tier program for the better part of the last decade. When bottom-tier programs make real improvements, it can take months for the betting markets to catch up. And this Blue Demons team is certainly making improvements! They opened up the season by knocking off Arizona State and Texas Tech in Orlando, while losing by only a single point to Minnesota. Then, after a brief hiccup immediately following that trip, the Blue Demons have won four straight, all by double-digit margins. Look for Oliver Purnell’s squad to carry that positive energy forward, notching another comfortable win tonight.
Cal Poly has played well on the road against lesser tier foes in recent weeks – hence this very short pointspread. But the Mustangs have been beating patsies like Fresno and San Jose State (the two last place teams in the WAC). They’ve failed to cover the number in either of their step-up-in-class games, losing at home to St Mary’s and at UNLV in a blowout by 23 points. The betting markets aren’t considering DePaul a ‘step up in class’ opponent for Cal Poly. Maybe they will after tonight’s win and cover for the Blue Demons!
You're right about playing at ULL --it's a crazy gym to have to play in for a visiting team. I'm with you on this one, also Alabama, but took them 1st half at 4 1/2. My thinking is that they will come out focused in Birmingham. Noticed to Indy State total has dropped to 130. Maybe something about it that we don't know about???
Thanks for the super write ups.
Rebeltell2
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You're right about playing at ULL --it's a crazy gym to have to play in for a visiting team. I'm with you on this one, also Alabama, but took them 1st half at 4 1/2. My thinking is that they will come out focused in Birmingham. Noticed to Indy State total has dropped to 130. Maybe something about it that we don't know about???
In regards to officiating, Covers did an article on this several months ago, breaking down percentages of NBA refs' over/unders... I specifically remember on the day it was posted, two of their "Over" refs were officiating a Milwaukee Bucks game, and even though the Bucks had the worst offense in the Association, the total ended up goin waaay over.
I'm sure some googling could unearth the article, but I'm too lazy right now.
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In regards to officiating, Covers did an article on this several months ago, breaking down percentages of NBA refs' over/unders... I specifically remember on the day it was posted, two of their "Over" refs were officiating a Milwaukee Bucks game, and even though the Bucks had the worst offense in the Association, the total ended up goin waaay over.
I'm sure some googling could unearth the article, but I'm too lazy right now.
Teddy Covers has a free play on Depaul tonight. I'm not wagering on them myself, but you have to agree he makes some very valid point's. Heres what he wrote below:
DePaul has been a bottom-tier program for the better part of the last decade. When bottom-tier programs make real improvements, it can take months for the betting markets to catch up. And this Blue Demons team is certainly making improvements! They opened up the season by knocking off Arizona State and Texas Tech in Orlando, while losing by only a single point to Minnesota. Then, after a brief hiccup immediately following that trip, the Blue Demons have won four straight, all by double-digit margins. Look for Oliver Purnell’s squad to carry that positive energy forward, notching another comfortable win tonight.
Cal Poly has played well on the road against lesser tier foes in recent weeks – hence this very short pointspread. But the Mustangs have been beating patsies like Fresno and San Jose State (the two last place teams in the WAC). They’ve failed to cover the number in either of their step-up-in-class games, losing at home to St Mary’s and at UNLV in a blowout by 23 points. The betting markets aren’t considering DePaul a ‘step up in class’ opponent for Cal Poly. Maybe they will after tonight’s win and cover for the Blue Demons!
Eh. I can't put Depaul and the word "improve" in a sentence until the beat someone noteworthy. Under Purnell, their greatest out of conference win came last year against #140 Wisconsin Milwaukee and they were beaten pretty bad by them at home this year.
Just a weird game. One team plays extremely fast, the other plays about as slow as a tortoise. One team plays organized defense, the other runs around with hopes that you throw the ball away.
One thing I don't get is Depaul's recent opponents are probably no where near the level of talent Poly brings in here. Arky PB has lost five straight by double digits, Northern Illinois is winless, and Chicago State's winless. Combined record of Depaul's last three opponents are 1-30, hahahah.
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Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
Teddy Covers has a free play on Depaul tonight. I'm not wagering on them myself, but you have to agree he makes some very valid point's. Heres what he wrote below:
DePaul has been a bottom-tier program for the better part of the last decade. When bottom-tier programs make real improvements, it can take months for the betting markets to catch up. And this Blue Demons team is certainly making improvements! They opened up the season by knocking off Arizona State and Texas Tech in Orlando, while losing by only a single point to Minnesota. Then, after a brief hiccup immediately following that trip, the Blue Demons have won four straight, all by double-digit margins. Look for Oliver Purnell’s squad to carry that positive energy forward, notching another comfortable win tonight.
Cal Poly has played well on the road against lesser tier foes in recent weeks – hence this very short pointspread. But the Mustangs have been beating patsies like Fresno and San Jose State (the two last place teams in the WAC). They’ve failed to cover the number in either of their step-up-in-class games, losing at home to St Mary’s and at UNLV in a blowout by 23 points. The betting markets aren’t considering DePaul a ‘step up in class’ opponent for Cal Poly. Maybe they will after tonight’s win and cover for the Blue Demons!
Eh. I can't put Depaul and the word "improve" in a sentence until the beat someone noteworthy. Under Purnell, their greatest out of conference win came last year against #140 Wisconsin Milwaukee and they were beaten pretty bad by them at home this year.
Just a weird game. One team plays extremely fast, the other plays about as slow as a tortoise. One team plays organized defense, the other runs around with hopes that you throw the ball away.
One thing I don't get is Depaul's recent opponents are probably no where near the level of talent Poly brings in here. Arky PB has lost five straight by double digits, Northern Illinois is winless, and Chicago State's winless. Combined record of Depaul's last three opponents are 1-30, hahahah.
You're right about playing at ULL --it's a crazy gym to have to play in for a visiting team. I'm with you on this one, also Alabama, but took them 1st half at 4 1/2. My thinking is that they will come out focused in Birmingham. Noticed to Indy State total has dropped to 130. Maybe something about it that we don't know about???
Thanks for the super write ups.
Rebeltell2
Nah...possible Richard isn't playing, but not too overly concerned.
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Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:
You're right about playing at ULL --it's a crazy gym to have to play in for a visiting team. I'm with you on this one, also Alabama, but took them 1st half at 4 1/2. My thinking is that they will come out focused in Birmingham. Noticed to Indy State total has dropped to 130. Maybe something about it that we don't know about???
Thanks for the super write ups.
Rebeltell2
Nah...possible Richard isn't playing, but not too overly concerned.
In regards to officiating, Covers did an article on this several months ago, breaking down percentages of NBA refs' over/unders... I specifically remember on the day it was posted, two of their "Over" refs were officiating a Milwaukee Bucks game, and even though the Bucks had the worst offense in the Association, the total ended up goin waaay over.
I'm sure some googling could unearth the article, but I'm too lazy right now.
NBA refs are made known beforehand. Would be impossible and not worth anyone's time to fetch the data before a college night that feature's 100+ games.
0
Quote Originally Posted by DannySatan:
In regards to officiating, Covers did an article on this several months ago, breaking down percentages of NBA refs' over/unders... I specifically remember on the day it was posted, two of their "Over" refs were officiating a Milwaukee Bucks game, and even though the Bucks had the worst offense in the Association, the total ended up goin waaay over.
I'm sure some googling could unearth the article, but I'm too lazy right now.
NBA refs are made known beforehand. Would be impossible and not worth anyone's time to fetch the data before a college night that feature's 100+ games.
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