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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Neil. Great thread. Just out of interest do you keep track of your record on totals separate of actual game lines and if so how is it?
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Neil, I heard the total might move up to 144.25. Would you still take it even with this 1/4 point move?



 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by pittzzzant:

Neil. Great thread. Just out of interest do you keep track of your record on totals separate of actual game lines and if so how is it?

I did last year. Haven't this year. Started out the season cold as ice on totals, but have picked up finally in recent weeks.
 
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Posted: #29
Neil, the garbage man left my trashcans 3 feet to the right of where he usually leaves them.

Is there any value left in going and getting them? If so, how many units should I use?
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36:

Neil, the garbage man left my trashcans 3 feet to the right of where he usually leaves them.

Is there any value left in going and getting them? If so, how many units should I use?

As long as you still have the lids, I believe you're OK.
 
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Posted: #31
 
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Posted: #32
Hey Neil, how about NC State last night at the buzzer and the Troy and Southern Utah game being 78-69 with 10 seconds left and then 2 fts and a 3 with 4 ticks left to go over the total?


 
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Posted: #33
Neil is there a website where you play your lines or do you use a local? I am going to join a new site today to play totals because sportsbook offers nothing. Any suggestions?
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by sportsanalyst:

Hey Neil, how about NC State last night at the buzzer and the Troy and Southern Utah game being 78-69 with 10 seconds left and then 2 fts and a 3 with 4 ticks left to go over the total?



Will be many wins and losses that end the same way. Hope more wins than losses.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Cornholio33:

Neil is there a website where you play your lines or do you use a local? I am going to join a new site today to play totals because sportsbook offers nothing. Any suggestions?

Shop around. I'm probably not the best person to ask for suggestions, somebody else might be able to help you out, or try the forum on here for it.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


Win or lose, this total holds an insane amount of value. 

1) coaching. Everhart and Duquesne employ a pressing style that pretty much forces the opponent to get up and down regardless. They force the tempo, and they're good at getting up and down. It's been a constant under Everhart. Second, Paul Hewitt's pace ranking now at George Mason is at #207. He has never played to a pace of below #111 in any season. Ever. He likes to get up and down just as much as any coach in the country.

Which leads me to 

2) They currently reside at #207 in the country in terms of pace because of a combination of two things. First, their schedule. This will undoubtedly be the fastest team they will have come across since they opened up with Rhode Island (a game that landed on 182). They have played a bunch of snails as of late, and Hewitt has worked on the half court offense which struggled mightily to begin the season.

3) They get a HUGE part of the offense back in Cornelius. He was the PG for this team last year and his guidance led them to have one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

4) Branching off the whole return of Cornelius, most of the time it is a huge concern for returnees or newcomers being inserted into the lineup. It takes a few games for the players to get accustomed to the offense, get the kinks worked out so to say. Not here. Hewitt will employ both Cornelius and Wright against the press. You have a kid in Wright who had started at the PG slot for the entire season, so you have two really experienced PG's going against this pressure. There won't really be that period where the team is forced to slow it down in the half court and adjust to the newcomer. With the way Duquesne plays, the majority of scoring in this game should come in the transition.

GL

 

excellent writeup... I will def give this play a look

 
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Posted: #37

Nropp11,  (Keep up the good work always enjoy and value your insight)

Any thoughts on the Bama/Ok. State game, I'm actually a Bama fan and believe that number is a little high.  The only way I see us winning and covering is if we can create a lot of turnovers and score in transition.  We don't have an outside shooter and our half court offense has been terrible as of late.  I have to take OK. State and the points in this one.  Thoughts?

 
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Posted: #38
I am glad I asked u about the Wright State game last night too vs idaho since I was going all in on Idaho until I read your analysis on why u liked WSU.  Thanks.

I like Central Florida tonight over ULL and line is down to 1. I enjoy taking road chalk if it's small usually when a better team is facing a weaker team even though the weaker team is at home. I know it's not the best plays usually for some people but I been doing that for years.
 
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Posted: #39
Thanks Neil.  Appreciate the insight.  I took at closer look and still don't like it as much as you do but BOL.


 
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Posted: #40
wow Duq/GMason line up to 144.5 already...still on it  BOL
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTime41885:

Nropp11,  (Keep up the good work always enjoy and value your insight)

Any thoughts on the Bama/Ok. State game, I'm actually a Bama fan and believe that number is a little high.  The only way I see us winning and covering is if we can create a lot of turnovers and score in transition.  We don't have an outside shooter and our half court offense has been terrible as of late.  I have to take OK. State and the points in this one.  Thoughts?


I'm playing Alabama I believe, just have a few more things I need to look at. I love the defensive matchup on Keiton Page. Grant won't put Releford on him (like he did last year) b/c he needs his energy on the offensive end, so one of the other guards will be on him and they got a size differential of at minimum 6 inches and in the best case scenario 8 inches. If Page isn't in the flow, this Oklahoma State offense is putrid.

As it stands, I'm having trouble projecting Oklahoma State to score more than 50 tonight, haha. Want to play the under, but with revenge and OSU hitting the road for a 2nd straight physical defense, I'm thinking the better scenario is laying the chalk. 
 
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Posted: #42
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by sportsanalyst:

I am glad I asked u about the Wright State game last night too vs idaho since I was going all in on Idaho until I read your analysis on why u liked WSU.  Thanks.

I like Central Florida tonight over ULL and line is down to 1. I enjoy taking road chalk if it's small usually when a better team is facing a weaker team even though the weaker team is at home. I know it's not the best plays usually for some people but I been doing that for years.

I've been waiting for someone to ask me about UCF/ULL tonight.
 
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Posted: #44
The issue I have with UCF is they don't score much but they have a HUGE frontline and I wonder if ULL can match that or will their quicker lineup abuse UCF and run them ragged. Interesting
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


I'm playing Alabama I believe, just have a few more things I need to look at. I love the defensive matchup on Keiton Page. Grant won't put Releford on him (like he did last year) b/c he needs his energy on the offensive end, so one of the other guards will be on him and they got a size differential of at minimum 6 inches and in the best case scenario 8 inches. If Page isn't in the flow, this Oklahoma State offense is putrid.

As it stands, I'm having trouble projecting Oklahoma State to score more than 50 tonight, haha. Want to play the under, but with revenge and OSU hitting the road for a 2nd straight physical defense, I'm thinking the better scenario is laying the chalk. 

Good points.  Hope Bama pulls it out.  I'll probably be laying off this game now and just cheer for my team to get the W.  Thanks for the input.

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


I've been waiting for someone to ask me about UCF/ULL tonight.


saw your tweet, waiting on your thoughts on this one... 

I checked the line at my book this am before I got on a flight and it was ULL +3.. I saw where you said you wanted more than a possession so I figured I'd wait... When I landed I checked the line again and it had moved to ULL -1 and it's still there now.. Wish I would have locked it in at 3, now I'm looking at ULL as a favorite
 
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Posted: #47
How about the early 6pm game Neil between Fresno St and Zona St?Im thinking about taking the 7 Pts with Fresno
 
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Posted: #48
Let's talk about UCF vs UL Lafayette. It looks and smells like a trap, this game almost seems too easy which makes me nervous. Thoughts on this Nropp?
 
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Posted: #49
just making a note about ULM. The only thing that scares me about that total is that at times they have such a hard time scoring and the stats aren't showing what is actually happening with that team. Brown and Mingo will shoot at any time and absolutely no discipline on shot selection from anyone. They do not move without the ball. MCclellean is not the most athletic or skilled guy and it is not a priority in that offense for some reason or another. Coach Richard just allows them to just go which is a positive from a defensive standpoint with the over but hesitant with the shot selection from Brown and Wingo, when I say no discipline I am probably under stating that.
 
 
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Posted: #50

neil,

this may sound like a dumb question but are the books or yourself ever privy to who the officials are on a certain game? I officiated high school for 20 years and it's a known fact that some officials call it closer than others, meaning quicker bonuses, more fouls and ultimately more points. My thinking here is is that certain officials would tend  to help or harm and over bet and vice versa. Your thoughts.  

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