Posted:
#1
November: 67-48 (+17.8 units)
December: 23-30 (-8.7 units)
Overall: 90-78 (+9.9 units)
Took a few days off but I'm still slumping. Lone win came on a second half total play and I badly whiffed on two of the three sides. Situational cappers like myself are struggling with these razor-sharp lines. Kudos to those who play the most "obvious" crap on the board.
January is around the corner...
Anyway...
Montana -3 (1 unit)
Buying low here. Really, really low. Will Cherry made his long-awaited return last game in the 2OT loss to South Dakota State but was clearly not yet his Big Sky Player of the Year self. Now, in his second game back, he'll go up against a Northern Arizona team that has already equaled its Big Sky win total from last season (One). On paper, the normally-stifling Montana defense appears to have taken a precipitous fall. A portion of this is attributable to Cherry's absence, but it also is a consequence of playing the 11th best collection of offenses (per KenPom). Among its six Division 1 opponents, Montana has faced Colorado State (#30), BYU (#78), South Dakota State (#51), and Idaho (#98). Tinkle's group has also struggled in the rebounding department, but they'll face an NAU frontline that has no size outside of 6'8 Max Jacobsen. The Northern Arizona offense is summed up with one name: Gabe Rogers. He's taken 36% of NAU's shots (6th highest rate in the country) but has traditionally struggled against Tinkle's defense. In the last three meetings, he's shot 4/16, 7/19, and 2/6. Tinkle mentioned that they have had success shutting down his production. NAU is getting a surprising amount of mileage out of tiny 5'10 freshman Dewayne Russell, though I wonder how he will fare against the perimeter size of Montana.
In reality, with Cherry close to being fully back in the fold, Montana has three of the top six or seven players in the conference. They more than held their own in Cherry's absence, posting prolific three-point numbers (40.4%, #12) and free throws (75.0%, #34). Do they completely click here and run NAU off the court? I doubt it, but this number in the preseason would have been Montana -9/-10. Too much value to pass up.
December: 23-30 (-8.7 units)
Overall: 90-78 (+9.9 units)
Took a few days off but I'm still slumping. Lone win came on a second half total play and I badly whiffed on two of the three sides. Situational cappers like myself are struggling with these razor-sharp lines. Kudos to those who play the most "obvious" crap on the board.
January is around the corner...
Anyway...
Montana -3 (1 unit)
Buying low here. Really, really low. Will Cherry made his long-awaited return last game in the 2OT loss to South Dakota State but was clearly not yet his Big Sky Player of the Year self. Now, in his second game back, he'll go up against a Northern Arizona team that has already equaled its Big Sky win total from last season (One). On paper, the normally-stifling Montana defense appears to have taken a precipitous fall. A portion of this is attributable to Cherry's absence, but it also is a consequence of playing the 11th best collection of offenses (per KenPom). Among its six Division 1 opponents, Montana has faced Colorado State (#30), BYU (#78), South Dakota State (#51), and Idaho (#98). Tinkle's group has also struggled in the rebounding department, but they'll face an NAU frontline that has no size outside of 6'8 Max Jacobsen. The Northern Arizona offense is summed up with one name: Gabe Rogers. He's taken 36% of NAU's shots (6th highest rate in the country) but has traditionally struggled against Tinkle's defense. In the last three meetings, he's shot 4/16, 7/19, and 2/6. Tinkle mentioned that they have had success shutting down his production. NAU is getting a surprising amount of mileage out of tiny 5'10 freshman Dewayne Russell, though I wonder how he will fare against the perimeter size of Montana.
In reality, with Cherry close to being fully back in the fold, Montana has three of the top six or seven players in the conference. They more than held their own in Cherry's absence, posting prolific three-point numbers (40.4%, #12) and free throws (75.0%, #34). Do they completely click here and run NAU off the court? I doubt it, but this number in the preseason would have been Montana -9/-10. Too much value to pass up.
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