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    All Forums | College Basketball

    Very sharp info on an added game

    jreno
    tchoke
    Paspinn
    monstergrit
    Dubstep
    ...
    Participants:
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    Posts: 13
     
    jreno
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 2:43 PM ET #1

    I use KenPom and other various power rankings. The line is off BIG, South Dakota should be -7 

    South Dakota +2.5 


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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    I use KenPom and other various power rankings. The line is off BIG, South Dakota should be -7 

    South Dakota +2.5 


     
    tchoke
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 3:42 PM ET #2

    gl to us i have this as well 8-1 ats
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    gl to us i have this as well 8-1 ats
     
    Paspinn
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 3:52 PM ET #3

    On this as well, got in at +2...saw the line has moved to +2.5 now too
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    On this as well, got in at +2...saw the line has moved to +2.5 now too
     
    monstergrit
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 4:09 PM ET #4

    BOL
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    BOL
     
    Dubstep
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 4:10 PM ET #5

    Nice find!

    Pinny @ 4pm ET
    SD  +2 +101
    O. Rob -2 -113

                


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    Nice find!

    Pinny @ 4pm ET
    SD  +2 +101
    O. Rob -2 -113

                


     
    games1
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 4:12 PM ET #6

    Just curious...why would the books set OR as a fave...
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    Just curious...why would the books set OR as a fave...
     
    TheSquare
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 4:55 PM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by games1:

    Just curious...why would the books set OR as a fave...

    Because they have so much money to give back.  The books and Vegas must have been visited by three spirits last night and felt obligated to give a superior team points...  Thanks for the find op..

    Oral Roberts -2.5 for me.. 
    "Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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    Quote Originally Posted by games1:

    Just curious...why would the books set OR as a fave...

    Because they have so much money to give back.  The books and Vegas must have been visited by three spirits last night and felt obligated to give a superior team points...  Thanks for the find op..

    Oral Roberts -2.5 for me.. 
     
    dbrules4u
    dbrules4u
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 5:12 PM ET #8

    maybe..... ?  Kenpom has Oral Bob losing by 1 against south dakota COYOTES Vermillion S. Dakota.
    Wed Jan 18


    218Oral RobertsW, 75-747150%Away

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    maybe..... ?  Kenpom has Oral Bob losing by 1 against south dakota COYOTES Vermillion S. Dakota.
    Wed Jan 18


    218Oral RobertsW, 75-747150%Away

     
    JFen31
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 5:25 PM ET #9

    A disclaimer: I'm not advocating for either side.

    KP has S. Dakota at #157 and ORU at #218. That's a 61-spot differential, which, in considering that there's 351 D1 teams, isn't a prodigious gap. 

    Look at the adjusted efficiency margins: 
    S. Dakota is +0.45
    Oral Roberts is -4.92

    That's approximately a 5-point differential, or the difference between Penn State/UAB or Pitt/Stanford. In other words, if those teams played on a neutral floor, the spread would be somewhere in the neighborhood of Penn State -5 or Pitt -5. 

    On a neutral floor, S. Dakota would be a 4.5-5.5 pt favorite. ORU gets 3-4 points as the home team, hence why this spread opened around a PK.

    The key to understanding how lines are made is to look at that KenPom adjusted efficiency metric. It's an excellent baseline for comparing the relative strength of any two teams. Linesmakers make lines using these types of math-based analytics, which is why it's so mind-blowing that this forum devotes an inordinate amount of time and energy babbling on about trap lines and "Vegas trickery."




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    A disclaimer: I'm not advocating for either side.

    KP has S. Dakota at #157 and ORU at #218. That's a 61-spot differential, which, in considering that there's 351 D1 teams, isn't a prodigious gap. 

    Look at the adjusted efficiency margins: 
    S. Dakota is +0.45
    Oral Roberts is -4.92

    That's approximately a 5-point differential, or the difference between Penn State/UAB or Pitt/Stanford. In other words, if those teams played on a neutral floor, the spread would be somewhere in the neighborhood of Penn State -5 or Pitt -5. 

    On a neutral floor, S. Dakota would be a 4.5-5.5 pt favorite. ORU gets 3-4 points as the home team, hence why this spread opened around a PK.

    The key to understanding how lines are made is to look at that KenPom adjusted efficiency metric. It's an excellent baseline for comparing the relative strength of any two teams. Linesmakers make lines using these types of math-based analytics, which is why it's so mind-blowing that this forum devotes an inordinate amount of time and energy babbling on about trap lines and "Vegas trickery."




     
    billywaddy
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 5:39 PM ET #10

    USD off an upset win over IPFW on Saturday. This could be a letdown spot ...
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    USD off an upset win over IPFW on Saturday. This could be a letdown spot ...
     
    Moku_weena
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 6:22 PM ET #11

    Jfen31....how come you don't post picks? You used to right? You are a great capper, and I'm sure covers would love to see your plays. Mahalo!
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    Jfen31....how come you don't post picks? You used to right? You are a great capper, and I'm sure covers would love to see your plays. Mahalo!
     
    TheSquare
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 10:10 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:


    Because they have so much money to give back.  The books and Vegas must have been visited by three spirits last night and felt obligated to give a superior team points...  Thanks for the find op..

    Oral Roberts -2.5 for me.. 

    Checkmate... 
    "Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:


    Because they have so much money to give back.  The books and Vegas must have been visited by three spirits last night and felt obligated to give a superior team points...  Thanks for the find op..

    Oral Roberts -2.5 for me.. 

    Checkmate... 
     
     
    games1
    games1
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2017 - 10:21 PM ET #13

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