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Vegas vs KenPom Week 4

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Posted: #1
The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

One note:  I will not be wagering on the teams that have over 65% of the bets according to covers contests.
 
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Posted: #2
Had my worst week of the young season last week.  Went 17-16 and lost 0.6 units.  Not bad if that can stay the worst week for a while.


YTD Record

For the night: 0-0 (0%)

For the week: 0-0 (0%)

For the year: 65-51 (56%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 27-24 (53%)
Road Teams: 21-12 (67%)

Favorites: 34-31 (52%)
Dogs:      31-20(64%)

Line moved toward KP:  45-39 (54%)
Line moved away KP:  17-4 (81%)

 
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Posted: #3
Official Monday Plays:

Fordham +8 (Road, Dog, Toward)
ArkLR +8 (Home, Dog, Toward)

 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Monday Plays:

Fordham +8 (Road, Dog, Toward)
ArkLR +8 (Home, Dog, Toward)



Beaver,
I seen your posts last year on this and followed a little bit.  Could you list the opening line and the Kenpom Fanmatch line on here so I can better understand your towards and away philosophy.  Thanks
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by c12los:



Beaver,
I seen your posts last year on this and followed a little bit.  Could you list the opening line and the Kenpom Fanmatch line on here so I can better understand your towards and away philosophy.  Thanks


I can do it today since there are only 2 plays...I will not be able to do this in the future when there are 10+ games.

Fordham opened at +6.5, moved to +8, KP has +10
ArkLR opened at +5, moved to +8, KP has +9
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



I can do it today since there are only 2 plays...I will not be able to do this in the future when there are 10+ games.

Fordham opened at +6.5, moved to +8, KP has +10
ArkLR opened at +5, moved to +8, KP has +9


Thanks.
 
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Posted: #7
Where do you get the opening lines from? My opening lines say Fordham +8 Ark LR +7
 
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Posted: #8
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by TylerSeguin19:

Where do you get the opening lines from? My opening lines say Fordham +8 Ark LR +7


Covers scoreboard.  Then click on line moves.  I use the first one to open.  It is usually betonline, but sometimes the other books open before them.
 
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Posted: #10
YTD Record

For the night: 2-0 (100%)

For the week: 2-0 (100%)

For the year: 67-51 (57%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 28-24 (54%)
Road Teams: 22-12 (65%)

Favorites: 34-31 (52%)
Dogs:      33-20(62%)

Line moved toward KP:  47-39 (55%)
Line moved away KP:  17-4 (81%)
 
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Posted: #11
Beaver, I looked tonight, I didnt see much for tomorrows slate of games. Double check ofcourse.
 
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Posted: #12
Yeah, as of right now I don't see any plays for tomorrow.  Will double check when KP updates though
 
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Posted: #13
Beaver who is that in ur new avatar?
and 2 and 0 2nite and i miss bet and put seina in by accidnt. i hate when i do that. 
 
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Posted: #14

bf23...like what you are doing here, I kind of do the same thing in my handicapping except that I use my own lines intead of KenPom's.

Have a suggestion, take it for what it's worth...take the three factors that seem to be positive (away teams, dogs, and away line movement) and assign a star (*) to each...

Then you would have (*), (**), and (***) plays!

I would suggest a money management system something like the following:

     (*) = 1% of bankroll, (**) = 2% of bankroll, and (***) = 3% of bankroll...

Last week (Week 3) the results would have improved to: (21-15) overall and the results for the season so far would have been (69-36).

 Just thought I would throw this out there...

PB.

             

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #15

Last night's plays would have been:

Fordham: (**), and Ark LR: (*)...

 

 
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Posted: #16
Nice idea pitch, makes sense to me... at least for the 81% angle
 
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Posted: #17

Beaver,

 

Keep up the great job. question: how do you know which team to bet on once you see a large spread between vegas and pomeroy?

 

favorite or underdog??

 
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Posted: #18

I think I may no the answer, does it depend on which team helps your position relative to pomeroy

 

Lets say Pomeroy has Depaul -15 over NIU on Wed.

If vegas line is say  -5, one would bet Depaul.

If vegas line is say Depaul -25, one would take NIU. Is that correct?

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by jjj8882:

I think I may no the answer, does it depend on which team helps your position relative to pomeroy

 

Lets say Pomeroy has Depaul -15 over NIU on Wed.

If vegas line is say  -5, one would bet Depaul.

If vegas line is say Depaul -25, one would take NIU. Is that correct?



Nope.  The opposite of what you are thinking.  In your example which has Depaul -15 and Vegas opening them at -5, this system assumes that the oddsmakers know more than the KP power rankings and there must be a reason for the short line.  The play would be NIU +5.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:

bf23...like what you are doing here, I kind of do the same thing in my handicapping except that I use my own lines intead of KenPom's.

Have a suggestion, take it for what it's worth...take the three factors that seem to be positive (away teams, dogs, and away line movement) and assign a star (*) to each...

Then you would have (*), (**), and (***) plays!

I would suggest a money management system something like the following:

     (*) = 1% of bankroll, (**) = 2% of bankroll, and (***) = 3% of bankroll...

Last week (Week 3) the results would have improved to: (21-15) overall and the results for the season so far would have been (69-36).

 Just thought I would throw this out there...

PB.

             

 

 

 



I like the idea, but it is important to keep in mind that after only three weeks, the sample size for this system is not large enough to really know which plays are better than others.  There have only been 34 road team plays, there is a good chance that they will not continue to hit at 65%.  I am going to continue to bet one unit on each play but after a few more weeks I may start to implement some kind of star system. 

Thank you for the idea!
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Beaver who is that in ur new avatar?
and 2 and 0 2nite and i miss bet and put seina in by accidnt. i hate when i do that. 


Just some model i guess.  Has been good luck, so she can stay for a while
 
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Posted: #22

Beaver

so a line of Depaul -25 by vegas would signal that NIU is weaker than usual for some reason and the play would be Depaul -25?

 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by jjj8882:

Beaver

so a line of Depaul -25 by vegas would signal that NIU is weaker than usual for some reason and the play would be Depaul -25?



Yep
 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



I like the idea, but it is important to keep in mind that after only three weeks, the sample size for this system is not large enough to really know which plays are better than others.  There have only been 34 road team plays, there is a good chance that they will not continue to hit at 65%.  I am going to continue to bet one unit on each play but after a few more weeks I may start to implement some kind of star system. 

Thank you for the idea!

 

 
 
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Posted: #25
Official Wednesday Plays:

Wright St +5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Tenn +2.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
N.Colo +3.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)
UCLA -9.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)
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